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The Swamp

  • #120,381
  • Jan 10, 2025 3:56am Jan 10, 2025 3:56am
Quoting gatorinla
Note to self "let R be R, and S be S"
the best aproch
  • #120,382
  • Jan 10, 2025 4:39am Jan 10, 2025 4:39am
Quoting LoneTrader1
I don't use Moving Averages on FX pairs but GU is staying under that 20 EMA on the hourly chart. Retracing to it and continuing down. Above might be some progress. Note: (Simulated) {image}
1.2500 to 1.2239 1st time hourly candle closed above 20 EMA above 1.23.
4 Hour also closed above 1.23
It could still go down for retest of whatever lows could be Upto 1.2250 , but intentions looks north
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  • #120,383
  • Jan 10, 2025 5:14am Jan 10, 2025 5:14am
DXY While above 109 could go more up below could fall
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  • #120,384
  • Jan 10, 2025 5:32am Jan 10, 2025 5:32am
AU sitting at 6190, could turn into R
  • #120,385
  • Jan 10, 2025 5:43am Jan 10, 2025 5:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} TP would of hit.. Now, will it rise the 195 pips to the day range? off that lower red support line. We shall see {image}
usd crosses sucked today and yesterday.. yen non usd look like champs
Figuring the slippage.. Maybe 25 pips.. And smaller lots... is a must
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,386
  • Jan 10, 2025 5:55am Jan 10, 2025 5:55am
EU
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  • #120,387
  • Jan 10, 2025 6:00am Jan 10, 2025 6:00am
Lets see if the S/P can give me some.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,388
  • Jan 10, 2025 6:57am Jan 10, 2025 6:57am
XAUUSD
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  • #120,389
  • Jan 10, 2025 8:26am Jan 10, 2025 8:26am
Quoting LoneTrader1
DXY While above 109 could go more up below could fall {image}
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  • #120,390
  • Jan 10, 2025 8:26am Jan 10, 2025 8:26am
I put a pending short at 294.. just in case
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,391
  • Jan 10, 2025 8:34am Jan 10, 2025 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see if the S/P can give me some. {image}
NFP squashed that
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,392
  • Jan 10, 2025 8:34am Jan 10, 2025 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
I put a pending short at 294.. just in case
How about audusd?
  • #120,393
  • Jan 10, 2025 11:38am Jan 10, 2025 11:38am
I believe its going to 1.050 and or 1.075. On an outside chance that will not likely happen. I placed a pending short at 030. I dont think it will go there. But it may be R Monday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,394
  • Edited 12:11pm Jan 10, 2025 11:59am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting sidhgenius
{quote} How about audusd?
The same as EU 307S at... AU 6199S. UCAD 1.44L. GU 2316S. GJ 164.77S.. Monday only! Mid-Late Asia, London, US. If its S thats a R area. If it L its a support area. PA is away from these now. It has to come back to them. When the pa moves, I want it to be nearly running out of gas. So the S/R can slow/stop it, and LC pull it to it. Not all pairs will get reached usually. 1 or 2 is enough
I threw in the dragon.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,395
  • Jan 10, 2025 12:07pm Jan 10, 2025 12:07pm
GU is it worth it risk and probability wise?
(Simulated)
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  • #120,396
  • Edited 12:28pm Jan 10, 2025 12:14pm | Edited 12:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The same as EU 307S at... AU 6199S. UCAD 1.44L. GU 2316S. GJ 164.77S.. Monday only! Mid-Late Asia, London, US. If its S thats a R area. If it L its a support area. PA is away from these now. It has to come back to them. When the pa moves, I want it to be nearly running out of gas. So the S/R can slow/stop it, and LC pull it to it. Not all pairs will get reached usually. 1 or 2 is enough I threw in the dragon.
If price is in the area, and this R is holding South. It may be tested. A fall can be 200 pips. GJ.. Maybe the trade of the week. Valid late Asia-Us Session LC. The attraction will end then. But it may also have a support to test in the same area. If the R holds, ADR will point to the same area. That R is a breakout point for bulls. That's the place it can go either way. A fake b/o has much less pips to risk, then going 200 to the attraction. Monitor weakness at R. to see if it will reverse. Reward may be 200. Risk is what you make it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,397
  • Jan 10, 2025 12:40pm Jan 10, 2025 12:40pm
I used 195 as a anchor point. You may get a much tighter one than 27 pips. Basically in this example 27pips is the risk. The reward about 7.5X. By the time commissions etc. are deducted. It would be about 7X. If I use the Friday high to anchor its a lot more. After it moves you can do that to reduce risk further.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,398
  • Jan 10, 2025 12:50pm Jan 10, 2025 12:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
I used 195 as a anchor point. You may get a much tighter one than 27 pips. Basically in this example 27pips is the risk. The reward about 7.5X. By the time commissions etc. are deducted. It would be about 7X. If I use the Friday high to anchor its a lot more. After it moves you can do that to reduce risk further. {image}
This is where the magic happens. Now your trade has a 4 pip risk. The reward grows to 43X.
You still have to be right... If it was taken with the 195 stop.. At 1%.. tp is about 7.5%. If the 1% represents 1$. Now the risk is less than .07$. The reward remains 7.5% of the account. If you get scared along the way, look at those other X marks.. Your welcome
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #120,399
  • Jan 10, 2025 12:56pm Jan 10, 2025 12:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This is where the magic happens. Now your trade has a 4 pip risk. The reward grows to 43X. {image}
Great, looking forward to it. Following every possible good R:R opportunity actually.
  • #120,400
  • Jan 10, 2025 1:11pm Jan 10, 2025 1:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This is where the magic happens. Now your trade has a 4 pip risk. The reward grows to 43X. You still have to be right... If it was taken with the 195 stop.. At 1%.. tp is about 7.5%. If the 1% represents 1$. Now the risk is less than .07$. The reward remains 7.5% of the account. If you get scared along the way, look at those other X marks.. Your welcome {image}
A little more magic.. Within those 4 pips there is a 1/2 mark. That 1/2 mark doubles the 43X. The 3/4 mark 4X the 43X. This is why FOMO is killing traders. Many predators that's been around millions of years. Wait for the prey to come. If it dont come. They dont waste energy. Energy in this case is your account.
If one looks at it this way. You can reduce the 1% to a smaller lot size. And you can still make a good deal of money.
1$ to make 7 is good.. 1$ to make 43 is better and so forth. You wont be pissed if you lost a few bucks..
Now get rid of the FOMO, and the greed. You can make it.
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