Trading the Cable swings via averages

Happy holiday Alan, hope you have a great time. I have one question on how to know when we should not trade? There are some specific clearer sign? Cause I found out that I tend to lost much money when the market swing

Hi Fiona96 and a happy new year...

This is not a simple question to answer because we have to look at several charts in conjunction with one another.

Also, I need to know how you place your trades. For example, do you just click to enter or do you place pending orders and wait to be taken in. Do you have multiple entries or just a single one. Do you plot target levels for the price to reach which covers the distance you require for profit.

Then there is a whole lot of other stuff I need to know, such as what time frames you like to trade, what pip target you need for your 2% profit. What types of trades you like and so on.

Information you should never give out is details of your account size or even the size of your lots, the dollar amounts of your profit etc. None should require these personal fiscal details.

I have to go out for half an hour so will get to your question when I get back.

In the meantime, consider this 4-hour chart...

Well, that was a long half-hour, I have forgotten what I was saying now.
Oh yes, the 4-hour..

I have marked three opportunities at A, B, and C to go short.

Starting with A we see on the RSI we had a bear div just prior. Let's say we took that as an entry short. Our target would be the average swing low about 180 pips below and this we calculate our lot size to make 2%. Our stop would therefore be 90 pips above for a loss of 1%. We would have won this simple trade even though price went about 27 pips against us.

That is one way I trade i.e. via the averages.

Now look at the actual position of A, it was at a Zoo point being 50% of the D level of an ABCD. On the 1-hour chart this was also an RSI div for a short This is a different target level because now we are looking for D1 as our target and D would be our stop. We would be risking 34 pips for a 1% loss and aiming for 106 pips for a 3% gain. Which we would have collected after a long time.

Now let's look at B. Again, this was a ZOO point being 50% of D1, Below the EMA and in an RSI div for shorting. Target is 135 pips, so our stop is half of this making our 1%:2% risk/reward. So, at this stage trading the averages we would have two trades short. We adjust our stops so as to only be risking a joint 1% but our profit target is now a combined 4% (which we collected).

X was a 1-hour RSI div to go long and the target is the average swing high some 185 pips away for a 2% gain and our initial stop is half this. We could take more longs on the hour chart adjusting our entry sizes and adjusting our stops accordingly, but we should easily make at least 4% on this trade.

Finally, we come to C. It has failed to make the D level of the ABCD because it ran into another RSI div possibly sending it back down to the average swing low again some 160 pips away. Again, calculate to make this 2%, and 80 pips above for the 1% stop. We can always add to the winning positions to compound the win but always keep adjusting the stop for no more than a 1% loss.

From these trades we can determine directions and make a whole pile of different trades at the lower time frame levels.

Remember always to never buy tops or sell bottoms you are risking every trade for a bad draw down.

Any questions so far....Phew!

And low and behold it has hit the swing low, and we collect our winnings. Or just a portion and see if the rest will run to D1 (If you are greedy)

Yes we sure do. +96

There you go it hit the D1.

Look where the next average low is?

Price will have to push hard to avoid being a bull div.

When you say 96 pips what is that as a %, so we can tell if it is good or great.

Anything beyond 2% is great

So far it doesn't seem to have the legs to push down out of div.

That's a 50 pip pull back...Whew!

Take a bo peep at the daily...


So close but so far away in div.

Is a good 2% bossman. My entry was on the H1 with a SL around the H1 EMA about 40 pips or so. Could have gone either way tho. Hang out for +80 and watch the M5 for a bit more. Been busy this week so not much trading on the LTF. Happy so far.

A

Go to the top of the class and give the pencils out.

I have run out of targets on the 1 hour.

This is how to measure the targets of wedges.

The target T is 1.5 times the Distance AB from the breakout C.

4 hours on the move again with 100 minutes to go.

It may be worthwhile pointing out that the weekly chart has reached the D1 target...

However, if we look at the daily there are still 54 pips to go...

And then even more downside if price test the next average swing low at 1.22

Well, the 4-hour failed to much with the bull div and as a consequence it makes a lower low to guess where!




The question now is. Is this the bottom of the run?

I usually using single one entry, I try to make more than one but usually it would require hedging to protect my profit so I found out that I better doing with one entry at a time. (i am not quite good at hedging yet)
I usually wait till time (108 bars) as you said and looking for entry signal (divergence) also plot my target after ABCD or AB=CD.
usually these thing often work out, sometime it hit my target sometimes it hit my BE.
but my account often erode by the time the market swing, more often is when EMAs branched but, I dont know when they should spandout again, there fore when they are branched I often still looking for the signal and get in as well. Usually these time I hit SL and start loosing my numbers

MMM! This sounds a bit like overtrading to me.

I sometimes have to wait days for a good signal, whereas in the meantime I drop my lot size and try to scalp a few pips to keep things ticking over.

I don't recommend scalping as it is very much a risky business, we tend to win some and lose more. Those hidden divergences tend to pay me well by letting price fall back on my pending entry and putting the stops just beyond the HD. Those wedgy breakouts are cool to because we have a target and a pretty tight stop just back inside the wedge.

I plot for lots of stuff, dip my toe in then follow up with a more robust entry when things are working out. If I get stopped out, I only lose a little.

I am currently long on the 4-hour div but I feel I will be stopped out for BE. Price is doing nothing yet and it is the NFP today so many may be resting up for that event.