The beginning of the AOI (zones) is aligned with SH/SL, you need to decide which swing you trade and what zone you are interested in. 
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,041
- Edited 9:04am Jan 3, 2025 8:21am | Edited 9:04am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
- #1,042
- Jan 6, 2025 8:10am Jan 6, 2025 8:10am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Gu hit today's potential reversal zone after Friday's ID bar.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,044
- Edited 11:50am Jan 6, 2025 11:31am | Edited 11:50am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
{quote} ja, coreg..1.2460 (b) ?
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,045
- Jan 6, 2025 11:33am Jan 6, 2025 11:33am
- Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,979 Posts
{quote} TV, you know that if we have correction the first leg will correct to 38-50% zone, then bounce, and potentially continue in the second leg down. The best scenario for shorts is below. {image}
- #1,046
- Jan 6, 2025 1:09pm Jan 6, 2025 1:09pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,047
- Jan 7, 2025 5:35am Jan 7, 2025 5:35am
- Temporarily Suspended | Joined Jul 2021 | 3,677 Posts
Good day, Coreg sir, wishing us a wonderful and full of green pips year and of course with good health.
While i was on holiday, i was trying to figure out why sometimes wave 2 or B, ends at 50% and other time it goes to 78% even tho after the 3 fractals ABC end at 50% (which means the minimum time and price retracement already met), but the wave 2/B takes the form of WXY (an extension in correction).
After analyzing all my wave 2/B winners and losers, one thing they both have in common is, the lower timeframe structural order block and Fibonacci ratio of W1 or A.
That is, if OFRA of lower timeframe structure (sub wave) occurs beyond (>)50% of w1( at 61.8% or between 61.8 and 78.6%), chances are high the OFRA is the end of W2, therefore Wave 2 do not produce a shift in market structure and the sub wave for wave 2 takes the normal ABC.
If, on the other hand, OFRA occurs below (<) 50% of W.1, the probability then tilted for a extension WXY W.2, and a shift in market structure occurs only to trap the trader on the wrong side of Wave 3 (the longest and usually most aggressive one, in a trend or swing).
Luck is on our side as we can test my theory in real time for the first time (for the perfectionists, who always seeks the holy grail - i dont backtest, i trade real time either shit works orl it does not, in both cases after accumulating enough data, i look for their characteristics which i later enable to exploit, my money management rules remains unchanged).
let's dive into this XAU setup, which per the above theory is expected to unfolds per WXY formation (extended correction)
Daily
In the above, we can see Order Block/Flag Limit rests at 50% of W1, while abc for W2 is met (time and price), but due to where OB lies(<50% or at 50%), probability tilted to an extention WXY W2.
4hr also illustrates the the picture:
We can see more clearly the abc in REAL TIME, shows Wave 2 ends
1hr 
Whats interesting, even at 1hr OB, the 15mins structure remains intact since asian..
(for the lazy, i dont give trade call, please later dont blame me for anything)
P/S: my post is only to discuss this End of Wave 2 and its relationship with wave 1 market structure with Mr Coreg as he has more real time experience than me, so the readers and i, can both developed an edge based on Wave analysis and its relation with market structure, so later it be applied in real time and hopefully bring us some bucks.
Lets hear the master's view.
Note: irregular Wave 2 occur, they are less often, the ABC and WXY occurs more often, as a trader to be consistent, our job is bet onto our percieved market movement which is most likely and often occurs. Not onto something that is rarely occurs.
While i was on holiday, i was trying to figure out why sometimes wave 2 or B, ends at 50% and other time it goes to 78% even tho after the 3 fractals ABC end at 50% (which means the minimum time and price retracement already met), but the wave 2/B takes the form of WXY (an extension in correction).
After analyzing all my wave 2/B winners and losers, one thing they both have in common is, the lower timeframe structural order block and Fibonacci ratio of W1 or A.
That is, if OFRA of lower timeframe structure (sub wave) occurs beyond (>)50% of w1( at 61.8% or between 61.8 and 78.6%), chances are high the OFRA is the end of W2, therefore Wave 2 do not produce a shift in market structure and the sub wave for wave 2 takes the normal ABC.
If, on the other hand, OFRA occurs below (<) 50% of W.1, the probability then tilted for a extension WXY W.2, and a shift in market structure occurs only to trap the trader on the wrong side of Wave 3 (the longest and usually most aggressive one, in a trend or swing).
Luck is on our side as we can test my theory in real time for the first time (for the perfectionists, who always seeks the holy grail - i dont backtest, i trade real time either shit works orl it does not, in both cases after accumulating enough data, i look for their characteristics which i later enable to exploit, my money management rules remains unchanged).
let's dive into this XAU setup, which per the above theory is expected to unfolds per WXY formation (extended correction)
Daily
In the above, we can see Order Block/Flag Limit rests at 50% of W1, while abc for W2 is met (time and price), but due to where OB lies(<50% or at 50%), probability tilted to an extention WXY W2.
4hr also illustrates the the picture:
We can see more clearly the abc in REAL TIME, shows Wave 2 ends
1hr
Whats interesting, even at 1hr OB, the 15mins structure remains intact since asian..
(for the lazy, i dont give trade call, please later dont blame me for anything)
P/S: my post is only to discuss this End of Wave 2 and its relationship with wave 1 market structure with Mr Coreg as he has more real time experience than me, so the readers and i, can both developed an edge based on Wave analysis and its relation with market structure, so later it be applied in real time and hopefully bring us some bucks.
Lets hear the master's view.
Note: irregular Wave 2 occur, they are less often, the ABC and WXY occurs more often, as a trader to be consistent, our job is bet onto our percieved market movement which is most likely and often occurs. Not onto something that is rarely occurs.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
- #1,049
- Jan 7, 2025 7:44am Jan 7, 2025 7:44am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,050
- Jan 7, 2025 7:48am Jan 7, 2025 7:48am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,051
- Edited 8:34am Jan 7, 2025 8:21am | Edited 8:34am
- Joined Jan 2021 | Status: Trader | 2,622 Posts
- #1,052
- Jan 7, 2025 9:47am Jan 7, 2025 9:47am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,054
- Jan 7, 2025 10:00am Jan 7, 2025 10:00am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,056
- Jan 7, 2025 10:38am Jan 7, 2025 10:38am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
{quote} Base on 1hr timeframe, it should drop to 0300-30 and the area around 0380 should become resistance. {image}
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,057
- Jan 7, 2025 10:45am Jan 7, 2025 10:45am
- Joined Jan 2021 | Status: Trader | 2,622 Posts
{quote} rehmatkhan, I don't know what the market will do; I will only follow my rules. What if the market makes only a flat correction ABC (zone on the charts)? It's discretionary trading. I don't try to influence your decision, I only play the devil's advocate.
- #1,058
- Jan 7, 2025 11:11am Jan 7, 2025 11:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,059
- Jan 8, 2025 7:19am Jan 8, 2025 7:19am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #1,060
- Jan 8, 2025 7:36am Jan 8, 2025 7:36am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,666 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.