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The Swamp

  • #120,041
  • Dec 27, 2024 12:51pm Dec 27, 2024 12:51pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Testing long this 4 hour candle...
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  • #120,042
  • Dec 27, 2024 1:30pm Dec 27, 2024 1:30pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} {image}
Have closed 90% rest at B.E
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  • #120,043
  • Dec 27, 2024 2:58pm Dec 27, 2024 2:58pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Have closed 90% rest at B.E {image}
Have closed all.
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  • #120,044
  • Dec 28, 2024 3:42am Dec 28, 2024 3:42am
Quoting gatorinla
A 1 month average may be a 70X trade {image}
A gap open -0415 may be telling of more drop.
Especially if it can't get back to + 0422
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  • #120,045
  • Dec 28, 2024 3:59am Dec 28, 2024 3:59am
Quoting gatorinla
lets see if 417 lets it fall to 408/09 {image}
ST 417 was there. Then i had to wonder why 417 developed? I think it was because 415. The FOMC release has retraced some. It may be continuing under 415. That was near Friday's low, after high. I'm not saying it will not support. But usually FOMC runs continue for a while. The market sentiment I hear is maybe 2 less cuts then was priced in next year. If tariffs materialize. The inflation would make cuts harder to do.

It can always go up. I dont have the clues pointing that way atm. Maybe if 417/15 held support. I dont think it would beat 487.. But if it did 1.06 is about a fair value. It probably starts about 444
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  • #120,046
  • Dec 28, 2024 4:12am Dec 28, 2024 4:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ST 417 was there. Then i had to wonder why 417 developed? I think it was because 415. The FOMC release has retraced some. It may be continuing under 415. That was near Friday's low, after high. I'm not saying it will not support. But usually FOMC runs continue for a while. The market sentiment I hear is maybe 2 less cuts then was priced in next year. If tariffs materialize. The inflation would make cuts harder to do. It can always go up. I dont have the clues pointing that way atm. Maybe if 417/15 held support. I dont think it would beat...
I lean short. I posted above because it closed above 415..Probably because the 6mth S2 and year end ranged.
If this turns out to be true about FOMC. The high for Jan would be below 486.. An average month at 340 pips lower. Jan may be 1.0/1.1 at some point. This month may still reach 1.028x
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  • #120,047
  • Dec 29, 2024 10:58am Dec 29, 2024 10:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I lean short. I posted above because it closed above 415..Probably because the 6mth S2 and year end ranged. If this turns out to be true about FOMC. The high for Jan would be below 486.. An average month at 340 pips lower. Jan may be 1.0/1.1 at some point. This month may still reach 1.028x
Another option if we make the month average range 0285. It may close in the 1.03 area. Depending if that happens or not. There may be the attraction to 1.06 (approx. ypp). to 1.00ish. 1.03 could fall near center. So either 1.06 or 1.0 is likely to happen. If 1.06 was first, there may be a good run to 1.0 after. Exact numbers will come in a few days
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  • #120,048
  • Dec 29, 2024 4:06pm Dec 29, 2024 4:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A gap open -0415 may be telling of more drop. Especially if it can't get back to + 0422 {image} {image}
No gap -415. Above 422 may rise.. but Below 415/17 may fall.. 422 attracts.. Some R still 442/44/48.. In 4hs That R may be 435. Above it may be bullish, bullish to test 447.. But the overall trend may be down still.
Sustained below 407 it likely bearish.
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  • #120,049
  • Dec 29, 2024 8:46pm Dec 29, 2024 8:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} No gap -415. Above 422 may rise.. but Below 415/17 may fall.. 422 attracts.. Some R still 442/44/48.. In 4hs That R may be 435. Above it may be bullish, bullish to test 447.. But the overall trend may be down still. Sustained below 407 it likely bearish. {image}
0435 ish may be R.. Above may b/o if sustained...

422 attracts but may support or resist also.. 417 may S/R ,, lower breakout needs -407 sustained..
I may short 435ish
A lower b/o would need a 1h close below 390 too.
Time is getting short to reach 286
Bulls barely missed 435 earlier. Nevertheless atm were unable to test that R
I still have some s from Friday.. looking for 70X







x
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  • #120,050
  • Dec 29, 2024 9:08pm Dec 29, 2024 9:08pm
The GBP is trying to make up its mind. 2581.3 may be the R.. It needs to sustain above or fall.
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  • #120,051
  • Dec 29, 2024 9:22pm Dec 29, 2024 9:22pm
eur or gbp may drop to either of those support levels and it has a chance to return to the blue A line
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  • #120,052
  • Dec 29, 2024 9:38pm Dec 29, 2024 9:38pm
the aud has some possible R 0.3246 ish, A at 6212
I cant trade but 2 usd pairs at one time in the same direction
unless I have some profit locked in
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  • #120,053
  • Dec 29, 2024 10:50pm Dec 29, 2024 10:50pm
The gbp has another possible s/l
its at 2581 now
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  • #120,054
  • Dec 29, 2024 11:22pm Dec 29, 2024 11:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
The GBP is trying to make up its mind. 2581.3 may be the R.. It needs to sustain above or fall. {image}
The GBP is above 2581.. That's the R.. There is no guarantee it will settle back down. But down is the trend .. I will take my loss if its hit..
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  • #120,055
  • Dec 29, 2024 11:27pm Dec 29, 2024 11:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
the aud has some possible R 0.3246 ish, A at 6212 I cant trade but 2 usd pairs at one time in the same direction unless I have some profit locked in {image} {image}
The AUD hit the R at 6246.. So if all goes right, it may be topping and head to 6212.x.. 6212 is below the support at 6220. sustained below 6220 may drop..
6209.6 can support too.
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  • #120,056
  • Dec 30, 2024 2:38am Dec 30, 2024 2:38am
It may be a good time to evaluate.. B.E. is not a bad thing or even tp some.
6246 was the perfect entry for AUD
The GBP at 2581, went 8 pips higher
The eu missed the entry, it did hit it earlier than i posted
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  • #120,057
  • Dec 30, 2024 3:11am Dec 30, 2024 3:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The AUD hit the R at 6246.. So if all goes right, it may be topping and head to 6212.x.. 6212 is below the support at 6220. sustained below 6220 may drop.. 6209.6 can support too. {image}
Now will it break 6220? It may take time.
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  • #120,058
  • Dec 30, 2024 4:25am Dec 30, 2024 4:25am
Sidelined! Expecting DXY to go down to 107.50, it got stuck in range. So waiting time...
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  • #120,059
  • Dec 30, 2024 4:37am Dec 30, 2024 4:37am
That 30 min is on the bull side of 433 and 435. The 12h close was on the bear side of 435 EU.. The attraction is below 433.. So it could fall even with the 30 min bullish.
The GBP did not close the 12h on the bull side either. it's the same with the 30 min

Quoting gatorinla
That 30 min is on the bull side of 433 and 435. The 12h close was on the bear side of 435 EU.. The attraction is below 433.. So it could fall even with the 30 min bullish. The GBP did not close the 12h on the bull side either. it's the same with the 30 min {image}
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  • #120,060
  • Dec 30, 2024 4:50am Dec 30, 2024 4:50am
The Attraction has some support there GBP..

Quoting gatorinla
The Attraction has some support there GBP.. {image}
The GBP and the EU has the attraction below atm pa. Both have it below the red line. Below the red line things could change since it would be below a R.
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