Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Falls to a Two-Month Low



While the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) climbed to an all-time high, Nvidia's (NVDA) stock price dropped below $131 during yesterday's trading session for the first time since mid-October. This bearish behaviour suggests a weakening of Nvidia's leading position. What is the reason?
A key driver could be the significant surge in Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) shares, a competitor to Nvidia. Following a roughly 20% price increase for AVGO in one day, another growth day followed, as we anticipated yesterday. As a result, amid Broadcom's strong forecast for 2025, AVGO shares have risen by 54% since early December, and investors may be reallocating their portfolios, selling NVDA and buying AVGO.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?



The Mexican peso, a dynamic player in the global forex market, embodies a unique blend of historical resilience and modern financial attractiveness. As we delve into the reasons behind its impressive liquidity, this article offers valuable insights for traders and investors eager to understand the intricacies and opportunities presented by one of Latin America's most prominent currencies.

The Mexican Peso: An Overview
The Mexican peso, a currency with a rich history and a significant presence in the global market, often surprises investors asking, “How much is the Mexican peso worth?” when they discover it’s one of the strongest emerging market currencies around.
Its performance in the forex market is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, particularly those from the United States, including benchmark interest rates. The currency has benefitted from Mexico's nearshoring boom and soaring remittances, alongside a healthy fiscal position, contributing to its appeal to investors and traders worldwide.

As the most traded currency in Latin America, the Mexican peso’s popularity underscores its importance in the regional and global financial landscape. With this background in mind, let’s take a look at 3 reasons the Mexican peso is so liquid.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount



AUD/USD declined below the 0.6400 and 0.6375 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.57350.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar.
2. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5790 resistance zone.
4. There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5750 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6430 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6400 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair even settled below 0.6375 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6340. A low was formed at 0.6317 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6340 level.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6375 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6385. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6430 resistance.

A close above the 0.6430 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6320 zone. The next support sits at 0.6350. If there is a downside break below 0.6350, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6320. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6300 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Surpassed $230 for the First Time



On 12th November, while analysing Amazon (AMZN) stock chart, we:
→ drew two ascending channels (a long-term one marked in blue and a steeper one represented by black lines);
→ anticipated a test of the $200 level as part of a correction.
According to the AMZN chart, since then:
→ the price corrected with a test of the $200 level (indicated by an arrow), aided by the median line of the blue channel;
→ it continued to climb within the mentioned channels, reaching a new all-time high — this week, the price hit $233.

Positive market sentiment is driven, among other factors, by:
→ Amazon's strong earnings report for the previous quarter;
→ expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which helped the Nasdaq 100 index reach a new record, as we reported yesterday.
Can the price continue rising?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Forex Traders Await the Fed's Decision



The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision today at 21:00 GMT+2, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell holding a press conference 30 minutes later. According to Forex Factory, the market expects a rate cut to 4.25%-4.50% from the current 4.50%-4.75%.
Analysts at Apollo Global Management, in their Economic Outlook, predict:
→ In 2025, the Fed will continue lowering rates but at a slower pace than the market anticipates;
→ By the end of 2025, the rate is expected to settle at 4.0%.
In anticipation of today's decision, the currency markets are experiencing a period of calm.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a Fib Spiral in Trading?



In trading, the Fibonacci sequence, notable for its mathematical and artistic significance, is adapted into tools like the Fibonacci retracement and spiral. These tools provide traders with a unique perspective on market trends and potential reversal points, using ratios derived from the sequence to analyse price charts. This article focuses on the Fibonacci spiral, exploring its application and interpretation in financial trading.

The Fibonacci Sequence and Trading
Traders often ask, “What is a Fib in stocks?”. A Fib refers to a tool using the Fibonacci sequence, typically a Fibonacci retracement. This series of numbers, where each is the sum of the two preceding ones, has long intrigued mathematicians and artists alike.
In trading, the Fibonacci retracement uses ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%) to identify potential reversal points on price charts. These levels are drawn by taking two extreme points, usually a high and a low, and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

The US Dollar Hits New Highs After the Fed Meeting


Yesterday the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 0.25% from 4.50%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.50%, as previously forecast. Despite this decision by the regulator, the US currency strengthened, and some currency pairs are nearing multi-year highs. For instance, the USD/CAD pair is trading near its 2020 highs, GBP/USD has dropped below 1.2600, and EUR/USD is approaching this year's lows near 1.0330.

USD/CAD


After confidently breaking above the psychological level of 1.4000, the USD/CAD pair has been strengthening for four consecutive weeks. According to technical analysis, the uptrend could continue towards 1.4600-1.4700. At the same time, a downward correction to 1.4270-1.4360 cannot be ruled out, provided reversal patterns form on higher timeframes.

Key upcoming events that could impact the pair's direction include:
Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US Q3 GDP data,
Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US),
Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): US Existing Home Sales data.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nasdaq 100 Index Plummets After Fed Decision



On 17th December, analysing the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we:
→ Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024;
→ Noted that the price was near the upper boundary of the channel, while the RSI indicator had entered the overbought zone;
→ Suggested that bulls might face difficulties in pushing the price to a new all-time high.

Yesterday, the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25%. Although it was anticipated, the market reaction was sharply negative. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) dropped by approximately 4%.
The steep market reaction was driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference, where he stated that the FOMC plans to cut rates only twice in 2025, contrary to market expectations of four cuts.




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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY Rises to a Nearly 5-Month High



According to the USD/JPY chart today, the US dollar has climbed to 157 yen. This movement was driven by monetary policies of both countries' central banks.
The Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance, with Chair Jerome Powell suggesting the possibility of fewer rate cuts in 2025 than earlier expected.
On the other side, the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda, as reported by Reuters, made "surprisingly dovish" remarks. He delivered a cautious outlook on monetary policy following the central bank’s decision to maintain its interest rates unchanged.
He emphasised that:
→ Real interest rates remain very low.
→ New risks are emerging due to trade policies proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Advanced Candlestick Pattern Analysis



Welcome to the intricate world of advanced candlestick patterns, a realm where subtle shifts in market sentiment are captured in the form and structure of candles on a chart. This article delves into some of the more sophisticated patterns that, while less common, offer insightful signals to those who can identify them. For readers eager to try spotting these patterns themselves, FXOpen's free TickTrader platform provides an ideal canvas to practise and observe these formations in real-time markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Micron Technology (MU) Stock Drops 16%



On Wednesday, Micron Technology released its quarterly earnings report after the main trading session closed. The results aligned closely with analysts' expectations: earnings per share came in at $1.79, slightly above the forecast of $1.76, while revenue met projections at $8.71 billion.
Despite meeting estimates, the chipmaker issued a disappointing forecast for the next quarter, citing weak demand for personal computers (PCs) and smartphones. This overshadowed positive projections for the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. Morningstar analyst William Kerwin warned of a potential "significant decline" in revenue from chips used in smartphones and PCs in 2025, driven by challenging market conditions.
As a result, Micron Technology's stock opened Thursday's session with a significant bearish gap and continued to slide throughout the day, closing 16% lower than Wednesday's closing price.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Analysis: Pair Recovers from 7-Month Low



The GBP/USD pair dropped below the psychological level of 1.25 today, a level last seen in early May. Over the past two days, the pair has declined by more than 1.5%, driven by central bank decisions.
On one hand, the US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve chair's comments on Wednesday, hinting at potentially higher interest rates in 2025.
On the other hand, the pound weakened on Thursday after news from the Bank of England (BoE). According to media reports:
→ The BoE kept the interest rate unchanged.
→ Market expectations for the BoE's February decision are putting additional pressure on the pound.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Santa Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock Markets in 2024



The Santa Claus rally is a well-known seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final trading days of December and the start of January. But what causes this year-end trend, and how does Christmas influence stock markets overall? In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind the rally, its historical significance, and what traders can learn from this unique period in the financial calendar.

What Is the Santa Claus Rally?
The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2024 start on the 24th December and end on the 2nd January, with stock markets closed on the 25th (Christmas day) and the 28th and 29th (a weekend).

First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends.
In Santa rally history, average returns are modest but noteworthy. For example, per 2019’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has historically gained around 1.3% during this period, outperforming most other weeks of the year. Across the seven days, prices have historically climbed 76% of the time. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Face Hurdles



Gold price started a fresh decline below $2,665. Crude oil prices are now struggling to clear the $70.00 and $70.50 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,665 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
2. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,632 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $70.00 support zone.
4. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $70.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price recovered above the $2,650 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,665 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $2,665 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $2,650 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,620 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $2,580 zone. A low formed near $2,582 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,664 swing high to the $2,582 low.

However, the bears are active below $2,650. Immediate resistance is near $2,630 and a key bearish trend line at $2,632. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,664 swing high to the $2,582 low.

The next major resistance is near the $2,665 zone. The main resistance could be $2,675, above which the price could test the $2,700 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,720.

An upside break above the $2,720 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,750. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,770 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,605 level. The first major support is near the $2,580 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,580 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,550 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XAU/USD Chart Analysis and Analytical Gold Price Forecast for 2025



With the holiday season underway, this week may be less volatile than the previous one, which was dominated by central bank decisions. This presents an opportunity to analyse the broader trends and outlook for gold prices in 2025.
The XAU/USD chart reveals that gold prices have been moving within an ascending channel, gaining approximately 27% since the start of 2024.
The short-term outlook appears bearish due to the following factors:
Gold prices fell after last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut, signalling increased selling pressure.
The $2,720 level remains a key resistance, having reversed the price downward in November and December.
While a recent upward reversal (indicated by an arrow) shows renewed buying interest near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, persistent selling pressure could still lead to a bearish trend. This might result in a breakdown below the blue channel's lower boundary and the formation of a descending channel (outlined in red).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Underperforms the Broader Market



Analysing Tesla (TSLA) stock chart on 12th December, we:
→ Identified an ascending channel, with the November price consolidation around $350 (marked by a thick blue line) potentially indicating the median line of the long-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue).
→ Mentioned that TSLA stock price could move toward the upper boundary of the channel, located near the psychological level of $500. However, the stock remained vulnerable to a pullback with a potential test of the $400 level.
What happened after our analysis?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analytical US Stock Market Outlook for 2025–2030 and Beyond



The S&P 500 is a cornerstone of the US stock market, reflecting the performance of 500 major companies across diverse industries. This article examines the index's historical performance, provides a detailed analysis of key drivers shaping its future, and offers insights into what analysts expect in their S&P 500 forecasts for the next 5 years and beyond.

S&P 500 Price History
Established in 1957, the S&P 500, or S&P 500 index, is a benchmark index that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It acts as a key gauge for the overall state of the US economy and financial markets, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) often acting as the primary investment vehicle for the index.

Inception to 2008
The S&P 500 began at a level of 44 in 1957 and steadily climbed, reflecting post-war economic expansion in the US. Significant milestones included the bull market of the 1990s and the early 2000s dot-com bubble, which pushed the index to record highs before the bubble burst. In 2007, the index reached a peak of 1,576, fuelled by strong corporate earnings and speculative investment activity, before the 2008 financial crisis caused a sharp 57% drop to 666 by March 2009.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

European Currencies Correct in Anticipation of a Pre-Holiday Rally



Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump, who has frequently discussed the possibility of new trade tariffs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD managed to find medium-term support last week. Both pairs are now attempting to recover toward recent highs.

GBP/USD



Last week, GBP/USD broke below the November low at 1.2480. However, the pair quickly rebounded above 1.2500, forming a bullish engulfing reversal pattern.
According to technical analysis, GBP/USD has the potential to rise further toward 1.2660–1.2730 if it can sustain levels above 1.2600. On the downside, a retest of 1.2470 could lead to a downward breakout, potentially driving the pair toward 1.2300–1.2400.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AMD Stock Price Rebounds from Yearly Low. 2025 Forecast



As the chart indicates, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reached its yearly low on 20th December, dropping below $120.
However, on Monday, AMD emerged as one of the top-performing stocks in the market. The trading session opened with a bullish gap, and by the close, the stock had gained approximately 4.5% compared to Friday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 0.7% on the same day.
According to technical analysis of the AMD stock chart, in 2024, the price formed a descending price channel (highlighted in red), characterised by the following:

 

1. Bears broke below three trendlines, forming a structure reminiscent of Gann fans.
2. There is a possibility that the fourth (lowest) trendline could serve as a strong support level, preventing the price from reaching the bottom of the channel. The sharp upward reversal from the $120 level may be considered a sign supporting this scenario.

Price action suggests increasing demand, and analysts (as outlined below) believe buyers may play a more active role in 2025.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the Holidays



Forex trading is slowing down as the holidays approach, offering a pause after significant movements driven by various news events, including central bank decisions.
Notably, NZD/USD reached its lowest level since October 2022 at the end of last week.
The decline in NZD/USD has been influenced by two main factors:
1. The dollar gained momentum following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25% and its forward guidance for 2025.
2. According to Reuters:
→ New Zealand's economy contracted much more sharply than expected in the second and third quarters.
→ Market participants anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates by 0.5% in February.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.