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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,701
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:39am Jul 26, 2007 10:39am
same here
  • #1,702
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:39am Jul 26, 2007 10:39am
its tempting to short usd/cad right now, but i think i'd hold off until i am sure its not a trend reversal, i think i'm going to wait until it drops to the 1.0450 level. But thats just me, any other opinions?
  • #1,703
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:51am Jul 26, 2007 10:51am
i shorted at 1.0506.im not to happy about this position, as mentioned earlier, not shure its not gonna reverse either.
  • #1,704
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:53am Jul 26, 2007 10:53am
Quoting sdot
its tempting to short usd/cad right now, but i think i'd hold off until i am sure its not a trend reversal, i think i'm going to wait until it drops to the 1.0450 level. But thats just me, any other opinions?
450 might be to late coz there will be a demand regardind todays rally
  • #1,705
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:54pm Jul 26, 2007 1:54pm
look at usdcad go.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,706
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:13pm Jul 26, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting bravado
look at usdcad go.
Good to see it start hitting 100+ days; maybe the one-way street will come to an end. But right now it feels more like JPY fallout. We'll be heading into the heart of hurricane season soon, maybe that'll spark some more volatility, I kinda miss the 200+ days.
  • #1,707
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:30pm Jul 26, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Good to see it start hitting 100+ days; maybe the one-way street will come to an end. But right now it feels more like JPY fallout. We'll be heading into the heart of hurricane season soon,

maybe that'll spark some more volatility,

I kinda miss the 200+ days.
that's what i call a true trader.
who cares about people losing homes and lives. 200+ pips for life.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,708
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:38pm Jul 26, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting bravado
that's what i call a true trader.
who cares about people losing homes and lives. 200+ pips for life.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,709
  • Jul 26, 2007 5:20pm Jul 26, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting bravado
that's what i call a true trader.
who cares about people losing homes and lives. 200+ pips for life.
Sorry, bravado, but FEMA is an entirely made-in-America problem...
  • #1,710
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:31pm Jul 26, 2007 10:31pm
Quoting bravado
look at usdcad go.
Oh yeah ! , just look at it go ! ............
---------------------------------------------------------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-24-2007-#3.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #1,711
  • Edited 11:05pm Jul 26, 2007 10:33pm | Edited 11:05pm
Usd/Cad -pg-2..........

( Trade-targets reached )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-26-2007-#1.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #1,712
  • Jul 26, 2007 10:59pm Jul 26, 2007 10:59pm
Us Dollar
-------------------------------------
( A wave count Probability )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Swiss Franc-07-26-07-01.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #1,713
  • Jul 27, 2007 12:53am Jul 27, 2007 12:53am
Interesting on the USD/CAD today. I would have thought with the bad housing news, the cad would have gained a lot. Especially with the great sales news on CAD a couple days ago. Very interesting couple of days.
  • #1,714
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:15am Jul 27, 2007 2:15am
I am now waiting for the Retrace on my Monthly fibo wave up to the 23.6 line - .0703, I will enter SHORT at .0655, in expectation of the next fibo wave start at this point or possibly up to the 0924 level.

Reference previous analysis: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29394&page=102
  • #1,715
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:36am Jul 27, 2007 2:36am
For the moment 1.0760 is a must, but if at the end of Tuesday it avoids a crossover on monthly MACD then it is likely to exceed 1.1900 before the end of the year and all the shorts will go to hell.
  • #1,716
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:47am Jul 27, 2007 2:47am
Quoting Igrok
For the moment 1.0760 is a must, but if at the end of Tuesday it avoids a crossover on monthly MACD then it is likely to exceed 1.1900 before the end of the year and all the shorts will go to hell.
The move up here is just a corrective retracement, the US Dollar is weak and the Loonie is setting records every day.

I am taking a Short here in area below the 0700 expectation, with a 2nd entry up near the 0900 level, that would be the extreme with the monthly and long term being very bearish.

This will be a Pair that will continue downward, and the entries we make in the next few weeks, will be very lucrative in a couple of years.

Plan your future by planning ahead, don't wait till we get there and say "why didn't I do that?"

Just my two cents (worth 1/2 cent soon) worth. LOL

Ken
  • #1,717
  • Edited 3:11am Jul 27, 2007 3:00am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting monarch
The move up here is just a corrective retracement, the US Dollar is weak and the Loonie is setting records every day.

I am taking a Short here in area below the 0700 expectation, with a 2nd entry up near the 0900 level, that would be the extreme with the monthly and long term being very bearish.

This will be a Pair that will continue downward, and the entries we make in the next few weeks, will be very lucrative in a couple of years.

Plan your future by planning ahead, don't wait till we get there and say "why didn't I do that?"

Just my two cents (worth 1/2 cent soon) worth. LOL

Ken
1. Shorting at 1.0650 is not a very good idea because the high of the current month is at 1.0638 will be taken out by that moment and some follow-through is likely to be seen.
2. It has already posted an outside (reversal) week currently and might even post an outside month if gets above 1.0760 before the end of Tuesday.
3. For the first time in history, current year on CAD is also an outside year and might turn into a reversal one too thus making curent low at 1.0340 its "historical low" for years ahead.
  • #1,718
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:35am Jul 27, 2007 3:35am
Quoting Igrok
1. Shorting at 1.0650 is not a very good idea because the high of the current month is at 1.0638 will be taken out by that moment and some follow-through is likely to be seen.
2. It has already posted an outside (reversal) week currently and might even post an outside month if gets above 1.0760 before the end of Tuesday.
3. For the first time in history, current year on CAD is also an outside year and might turn into a reversal one too thus making curent low at 1.0340 its "historical low" for years ahead.
Thanks for the informative post, I will evaluate the charts based on your analysis.

I have more time here, I may let the month close out prior to making this decision.

Thanks, Ken
  • #1,719
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:40am Jul 27, 2007 3:40am
What does anybody think about the news in 4 hours? What effect will it have on this pair if the forecast 3.2% from 0.4% quarterly GDP figures are even close, given that bad news in other areas does not seem to be weakening the dollar appreciably?


Grateful for your observations.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,720
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:46am Jul 27, 2007 6:46am
I wonder if this is trend change?

Think this is just finishing up wave 3 of 1
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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