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did the Euro/USD posted its top today?

  • #21
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:39am Jul 25, 2007 5:39am
the euro/usd is on track as expected, hpe will continue
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  • #22
  • Edited 6:33am Jul 25, 2007 6:22am | Edited 6:33am
Coolies. Now I'd need the re-entry price for the resumption of the run up please

David's precision was especially nice to see. Been checking out your journal for a while, the moon phases were intriguing =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #23
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:02am Jul 25, 2007 10:02am
Quoting boramor
with euro/usd bullish sentiment at extreme level, that means most of those who are bullish are long and there is no enough fresh buyers at these levels to push the market much further up. it is a balancing situation and when the bulls realize that market has no enough power to continue up, they will start to take profit and this will attract some fresh bears that will junp in to profit from the profit taking wave which will lead to market drop.
Oh lala, what a nice ride.. hope will continue
  • #24
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:01pm Jul 25, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Coolies. Now I'd need the re-entry price for the resumption of the run up please

David's precision was especially nice to see. Been checking out your journal for a while, the moon phases were intriguing =)

Thanks

Next moon phase is july 30th. This might give rise to a retrace of this down move on the 4 hr chart lvl. But doesn't usually last long.

Figured since I'm not keeping a journal any more, I'd pop in and make some analysis from time to time.

I'd like to see this move back into normal euro$ levels below 1.3000.

Dave
  • #25
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:15am Jul 26, 2007 8:15am
we might see a pullback toward 13750-70, but i still see the market tendency toward the downside
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  • #26
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:56pm Jul 26, 2007 1:56pm
Despite the high pressure on the dollar from the US stock market sharp drop and the risk of credit default, t euro/usd didn't break the 13770, which is a good sign.
  • #27
  • Jul 26, 2007 2:13pm Jul 26, 2007 2:13pm
We usually get a 1-2-3 step. So 1 down, 2 slightly back up has happened, now I'd expect a third push downwards.
If today's high remains in place targets are 1.3612, 1.3555, 1.3515.

Possibly in between the first two as well. If we move back above 1.3800 then I view the move down as over.


Dunno. EURUSD and GBPUSD behaving super-strange, everything else behaving nicely and melting down along with the carry/dji.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #28
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:58am Jul 27, 2007 3:58am
our anticipated scenario is working very well, after market retracement to 13770, euro is expected to reach the 13600-13560 en route to 13350.
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  • #29
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:48am Jul 28, 2007 11:48am
COT report for july 24 released friday shows that non commercial are long while commercial are short, but also shows that small traders (speculators) are heavy long


EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, July 24, 2007
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Positions
: Open : Non-Commercial : Commercial : Total :
: Interest : Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : (CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) :
: : :
All : 225,781: 126,890 30,475 2,015 31,658 162,016 160,563 194,506: 65,218 31,275
Old : 225,781: 126,890 30,475 2,015 31,658 162,016 160,563 194,506: 65,218 31,275
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0
: : :
: : Changes in Commitments from: July 17, 2007 :
: 4,544: 3,526 6,296 -40 562 -1,645 4,048 4,611: 496 -67
: : :
: : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
All : 100.0: 56.2 13.5 0.9 14.0 71.8 71.1 86.1: 28.9 13.9
Old : 100.0: 56.2 13.5 0.9 14.0 71.8 71.1 86.1: 28.9 13.9
Other: 100.0: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0: 0.0 0.0
: : :
:# Traders : Number of Traders in Each Category :
All : 149: 66 38 7 28 31 98 72:
Old : 149: 66 38 7 28 31 98 72:
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
: By Gross Position By Net Position
: 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders
: Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All : 23.8 42.9 31.6 55.5 23.5 41.8 31.3 54.0
Old : 23.8 42.9 31.6 55.5 23.5 41.8 31.3 54.0
Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  • #30
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:10am Jul 30, 2007 2:10am
weekly chart shows evening star formation which is a bearish signal and support our bearish view. hope ti will work
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  • #31
  • Jul 30, 2007 3:03am Jul 30, 2007 3:03am
I am with you!
Thanks for all your posts.

I am short since 1.3764, my TP it is 1.34

Regards
B2L
  • #32
  • Jul 30, 2007 4:53am Jul 30, 2007 4:53am
Quoting BoredToLoose
I am with you!
Thanks for all your posts.

I am short since 1.3764, my TP it is 1.34

Regards
B2L
Hi B2L,
hope we both make a respected amount of profit with the euro short position

regards
Boramor
  • #33
  • Jul 30, 2007 6:36am Jul 30, 2007 6:36am
resistances for the euro 1.3695 and then 1.3770
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  • #34
  • Edited 2:48pm Jul 30, 2007 6:50am | Edited 2:48pm
It will need to bound up some more before it goes down to your desired level but keep in mind that it already hit support 1.
  • #35
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:21pm Jul 30, 2007 1:21pm
market update, "savena" structure
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  • #36
  • Jul 30, 2007 7:27pm Jul 30, 2007 7:27pm
I am suprised to not see a spike near 1.3800 again befor continuing down. It usually happens on trend changes.
Hopefully this "is" that spike, and will resume down soon. But if it jumps up more, its last chance to exit longs, and to get prime short position, or to add to current shorts from good place.

DAve
  • #37
  • Last Post: Jul 31, 2007 6:11am Jul 31, 2007 6:11am
Quoting boramor
market update, "savena" structure

Sorry about my ignorance, but what Savena Structure means.

As you can see in my Graphs, Fibos are ruling at the moment.
From 1.3250 to 1.3850 price reach 61.8 and from 1.36 to 1.3850 price retrace to 50%.
Well I keep my bet that south is the way, let's see!

Bye
B2L
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