Thank you SOOOOO MUCH... You've just saved like 1,000 souls out of purgatory with that...
- Hope they don't come at night to thank you, though
- Hope they don't come at night to thank you, though
Determining the Trend ?? 4 replies
Determining RATES 0 replies
Daily direction - methods for determining 1 reply
Determining Trends 7 replies
Determining Trend Using Price Alone 22 replies
Quoting twinchellDislikedAs I predicted - I spend time typing all this up and nobody looks at it. A thread about a random spike in the market already has twice as many views in less than half the time. People just don't want to read about how to create a trading plan and become a successful trader; they want to know why the market moved 20 pips and what the new holy grail indicator of the week is. Im glad a half-a-dozen people got something out of it, but I guess you can say I won't be wasting my time doing any others. It's no shock whatsoever that only 5% of people are successful. I would be amazed if it was that high.Ignored
Quoting andersenwsDislikedAnother great and informative post twinchell. Risk and Position sizing is one of those areas where, as you put it, "I still just pick arbitrary values". I read Fooled by Randomness, and it talked a lot about Monte Carlo Analysis.
I just have one question. Is your Monte Carlo program freely available, or does it cost money? I would love to have something like this to mess around with.
Thanks,
andersenwsIgnored
Quoting twinchellDislikedAs I predicted - I spend time typing all this up and nobody looks at it. A thread about a random spike in the market already has twice as many views in less than half the time. People just don't want to read about how to create a trading plan and become a successful trader; they want to know why the market moved 20 pips and what the new holy grail indicator of the week is. Im glad a half-a-dozen people got something out of it, but I guess you can say I won't be wasting my time doing any others. It's no shock whatsoever that only 5% of people are successful. I would be amazed if it was that high.Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedAs I predicted - I spend time typing all this up and nobody looks at it. A thread about a random spike in the market already has twice as many views in less than half the time. People just don't want to read about how to create a trading plan and become a successful trader; they want to know why the market moved 20 pips and what the new holy grail indicator of the week is. Im glad a half-a-dozen people got something out of it, but I guess you can say I won't be wasting my time doing any others. It's no shock whatsoever that only 5% of people are successful. I would be amazed if it was that high.Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedAs I predicted - I spend time typing all this up and nobody looks at it. A thread about a random spike in the market already has twice as many views in less than half the time. People just don't want to read about how to create a trading plan and become a successful trader; they want to know why the market moved 20 pips and what the new holy grail indicator of the week is. Im glad a half-a-dozen people got something out of it, but I guess you can say I won't be wasting my time doing any others. It's no shock whatsoever that only 5% of people are successful. I would be amazed if it was that high.Ignored
Quoting itmeDislikedAlso, I don't think acceptable drawdown should be based on sentiment, greed, fantasy, desire or fear, but on rational considerations, such as probabilities, risk analysis and potential return on capital. The goal is to maximize return on capital, whilst surviving adverse trades. That should be the long and short of it.Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedIYou just have to "find" that fine line.Ignored
Quoting richpDislikedYep - this has been the major criticism of Ralph Vinces's Optimal F, it maximises geometric growth but produces unacceptable drawdowns that most traders would not be capable of withstanding. Therefore practical solutions (including my own) is to reduce the optimal F fixed fraction to a level that reduces the maximum drawdown to what I consider a reasonable level of 30% after gearing. A further protection mechanism is to appy the technique across a portfolio of currencies. If one has say 4 UNCORRELATED currency pairs in your portfolio, to suffer a 100% drawdown would require all four to simultaneously have maximum drawdowns. This is highly unlikely to occur (but still possible of course), however one would surely have an overiding disaster stopout if one was to ever get close to this doomsday scenario.Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedSo the gist of why I'm a "jerk" is because that's what people need.Ignored
Quoting twinchellDisliked<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedYou know how I think you get out of that noob phase? You get some "jerk" to point you out and make you feel stupid. It's called tough love. When you're doing something stupid you don't need someone to come and hold your hand and say "you're doing great, hang in there". You need someone to say "what the hell are you thinking?!". Go spend an hour searching through threads on this forum. You will see new traders committing the cardinal sins of trading, and right behind these huge mistakes you'll see other people congratulating them and patting them on the back. You don't need to feel good about doing stupid things, you need a wakeup call.<o></o>
Ignored
Quoting twinchellDislikedSo the gist of why I'm a "jerk" is because that's what people need.Ignored