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The Swamp

  • #119,821
  • Dec 15, 2024 7:35pm Dec 15, 2024 7:35pm
Bitcoin ath hit 106,613 last hour
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,822
  • Dec 15, 2024 7:46pm Dec 15, 2024 7:46pm
Quoting M76
{quote} first 1.0560-85 then down
I can't argue the future when its above 0486 and 0503. + Those do have a shot to test 0530. On Friday I had 0517ish as the possible top. So i have to trade what I see. 0489 may pull its string back below 0503. that would be a bear side to test 0486.. -0486 can test 0458 support. -0458 and 0445 may test.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,823
  • Dec 15, 2024 7:46pm Dec 15, 2024 7:46pm
A little odd for a Monday to be like this but this time it's packed with lots of red news, EU , GU, USD
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  • #119,824
  • Dec 15, 2024 7:54pm Dec 15, 2024 7:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Nemohu se hádat o budoucnosti, když je nad 0486 a 0503. + Ty mají šanci otestovat 0530. V pátek jsem měl 0517ish jako možný vrchol. Takže musím obchodovat, co vidím. 0489 může stáhnout svůj řetězec zpět pod 0503. to by byla medvědí strana pro testování 0486.. -0486 může testovat podporu 0458. -0458 a 0445 mohou testovat. {image}
From a fundamental point of view, the € should go down, Europe is not in shape, Germany as a key country is also having problems. Now the rating of Slovakia and France has been lowered, ECB rate cuts and dovish rhetoric, etc. But I believe in testing the zone around 1.0600, collecting liquidity and SL. definitely down in the long term.
  • #119,825
  • Edited 11:14pm Dec 15, 2024 8:35pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting M76
{quote} From a fundamental point of view, the € should go down, Europe is not in shape, Germany as a key country is also having problems. Now the rating of Slovakia and France has been lowered, ECB rate cuts and dovish rhetoric, etc. But I believe in testing the zone around 1.0600, collecting liquidity and SL. definitely down in the long term.
Yeah I posted the E car problem Europe will have. China will flood the market. Forcing EZ do either compete by lowering prices. Or some type of tariff or limits. That won't sit well with China. China could slow/stop the materials needed for the EZ batteries. And there is the energy problem. U.S. makes enough to export. Europe dont make enough. So EZ is forced to buy its deficit oil and pay for the ocean shipping. A added tax the U.S. does not embed in product cost. Thats been the trajectory since 2008 when i first posted this
Anyway 0517ish was where I had some idea Thursday and Friday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,826
  • Edited Dec 16, 2024 4:53am Dec 15, 2024 10:28pm | Edited Dec 16, 2024 4:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I can't argue the future when its above 0486 and 0503. + Those do have a shot to test 0530. On Friday I had 0517ish as the possible top. So i have to trade what I see. 0489 may pull its string back below 0503. that would be a bear side to test 0486.. -0486 can test 0458 support. -0458 and 0445 may test. {image} {image}
PA is on the bullish side of 0486 and 0502x.. 0517 was the number Thursday and Friday. 0517 has expired now. i do think 0489 has pull potential. But it hasn't yet. So it can rise to 0530 or more. I did think it would not reach more than +10 above 0517 Friday. But now it can. I just dont know. Be careful when its not trying to wick down below 586
typo here.. 486... Forget about it now... 0505 may resist..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,827
  • Dec 15, 2024 11:13pm Dec 15, 2024 11:13pm
FOMC should settle a direction after the dust settles
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,828
  • Dec 16, 2024 4:54am Dec 16, 2024 4:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA is on the bullish side of 0486 and 0502x.. 0517 was the number Thursday and Friday. 0517 has expired now. i do think 0489 has pull potential. But it hasn't yet. So it can rise to 0530 or more. I did think it would not reach more than +10 above 0517 Friday. But now it can. I just dont know. Be careful when its not trying to wick down below 586 typo here.. 486... Forget about it now... 0505 may resist..
505 may resist now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,829
  • Dec 16, 2024 4:57am Dec 16, 2024 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 505 may resist now
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Under 505 and 502 may lean bearish. After 0489.. it may run to 0502 0505. to test the r. If not it may test 0458
see chart I'm 1/2 asleep. I posted 0486 before. But it may no longer be relevant
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,830
  • Dec 16, 2024 5:06am Dec 16, 2024 5:06am
Bear went to the honey tree a 0489..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,831
  • Dec 16, 2024 5:13am Dec 16, 2024 5:13am
I will move my local trajectory line at the upper end. The lower end stays at 0230 Dec 30 day end. This is just a guide.. It's not a trend line.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,832
  • Dec 16, 2024 5:28am Dec 16, 2024 5:28am
Quoting gatorinla
I will move my local trajectory line at the upper end. The lower end stays at 0230 Dec 30 day end. This is just a guide.. It's not a trend line. {image}
I moved it now.. With 11 days to go. To be correct, it needs a decent drop. That upper line would mostly contain up moves. If its to drop, the average would take it to the 043ish area (valid today only. it drops each day).. Below 0458 could be bearish into 0445 support. Closer to the 0430 projected average. Below that may be a stronger bear. The 043x area is good for now only. It drops about 20ish pips a day. Until the end of 2024.
To be correct in the assessment. A drop to 0430 may seem violent. To me it's just putting it back to average. It can fall the equal distance below 0430ish too. 0430ish is just the middle
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,833
  • Dec 16, 2024 5:53am Dec 16, 2024 5:53am
If it falls to 0458 it can support, it can run back to 0489. But if bears truly take it. It may not bounce. Anyway who knows for sure?? That bounce may present a short with some R value at 0502/05. I'm basing this on the orange box mentioned for months being R. PA stuck between it and this support 0445ish. But now the year is ending. it making its move to an average month move 023x. I may be 100% wrong.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,834
  • Dec 16, 2024 6:19am Dec 16, 2024 6:19am
+ 0502 and 0505 can resist. If they dont, I will not fight the bulls. Stops to 0510
ST as in today +0502 and 05 is on the bullish side for me. Some R 0530 or 0538.
0489 can pull pa back to it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,835
  • Dec 16, 2024 8:35am Dec 16, 2024 8:35am
Quoting gatorinla
+ 0502 and 0505 can resist. If they dont, I will not fight the bulls. Stops to 0510 ST as in today +0502 and 05 is on the bullish side for me. Some R 0530 or 0538. 0489 can pull pa back to it
R worked atm.. If it can get a foothold below 0489 it may fall. Maybe after LC..
The debate I have with myself is always. Should i tp 0489 the first time, and wait for the bounce? It can go either way. Sometimes it dont bounce. Sometimes the R dont hold. Sometimes i touch myself. Its one of life's mysteries of when. This is the second time at 0489.. The question is not answered. I'm coming to the belief of taking the money. And try to re-enter the bounce is best.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,836
  • Dec 16, 2024 8:52am Dec 16, 2024 8:52am
There is a chance it will run back to 0489.. It may or may not resist next time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,837
  • Dec 16, 2024 8:54am Dec 16, 2024 8:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} R worked atm.. If it can get a foothold below 0489 it may fall. Maybe after LC.. The debate I have with myself is always. Should i tp 0489 the first time, and wait for the bounce? It can go either way. Sometimes it dont bounce. Sometimes the R dont hold. Sometimes i touch myself. Its one of life's mysteries of when. This is the second time at 0489.. The question is not answered. I'm coming to the belief of taking the money. And try to re-enter the bounce is best. {image}
You're one of the best.... I commend you.
So, What have you concluded on this dilemma of yours? Should we run with the spoils or continue digging?
  • #119,838
  • Dec 16, 2024 9:46am Dec 16, 2024 9:46am
PA is above 1.0502 and 1.0505. If it closes this h below 0502 I may be able to short.. above 0505 long.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,839
  • Dec 16, 2024 9:48am Dec 16, 2024 9:48am
Quoting GoDygital
{quote} You're one of the best.... I commend you. So, What have you concluded on this dilemma of yours? Should we run with the spoils or continue digging?
Take the sure money. If it does bounce re-enter. If not, call it a day
Right now if it closes this h below 0502, most often. It favors down. Maybe till adr. The same may be true with a long on this hour close above 0505 and adr. Depending on the direction, 0502/05 can be s or r
But the north side may stop at 0538 30
This h close may gap
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,840
  • Dec 16, 2024 9:58am Dec 16, 2024 9:58am
Tried long there...
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