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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #9,961
  • Nov 20, 2024 8:21pm Nov 20, 2024 8:21pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well, I don't actually track all that. What I am looking at is the average swings, then I look at the potential signals that take me there. Remember always, when the market is seen to be weak in one direction by the failing of the EMA to make the next HH or LL it will test the opposite direction. It has always done this and will always continue to do so. In other words, until price fails in one direction it will continue and will not test the opposite direction. This is also relative to the time frame we are working with. For example, at...
Your are right, but I found it more easier when one can identify AB = CD target along the way when they can get an entry (at lower time frame) in C (for example). Also, there are so many LL and HH level and sometimes I loose myself tracking them, for instance in this image (and many more not inside the image, right?)
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  • #9,962
  • Nov 21, 2024 9:31am Nov 21, 2024 9:31am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Your are right, but I found it more easier when one can identify AB = CD target along the way when they can get an entry (at lower time frame) in C (for example). Also, there are so many LL and HH level and sometimes I loose myself tracking them, for instance in this image (and many more not inside the image, right?) {image}
I don't know how you lose yourself tracking the swing levels. I would say it is very beneficial to not only track the levels but also comment them on your charts, so you get a good handle on the way the market moves. I am marking this 15-min chart with large text for you all to read but for yourself use small text so as not to clutter the chart. You can also colour code your target lines, so you get accustomed to the visual recognition of them.

The chart above is meaningless to me, it could be anything.

Here I have continued with the 15-min plotting...
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The only thing that ever changes is the lot size because it is dependent on the risk/reward for the particular trade. Always maintain the max loss of 1% and the minimum win of 2%. There is nothing wrong with adding to a winning trade to compound the win above 2%. Never add to a losing trade blowing out your 1% loss limit.
  • #9,963
  • Nov 21, 2024 8:58pm Nov 21, 2024 8:58pm
[quote=Nala66;15067170]{quote} I don't know how you lose yourself tracking the swing levels. I would say it is very beneficial to not only track the levels but also comment them on your charts, so you get a good handle on the way the market moves. I am marking this 15-min chart with large text for you all to read but for yourself use small text so as not to clutter the chart. You can also colour code your target lines, so you get accustomed to the visual recognition of them. The chart above is meaningless to me, it could be anything. Here I have continued with the 15-min plotting... {image} The only thing that ever changes is the lot size because it is dependent on the risk/reward for the particular trade. Always maintain the max loss of 1% and the minimum win of 2%. There is nothing wrong with adding to a winning trade to compound the win above 2%. Never add to a losing trade blowing out your 1% loss limit.[/quote/]
Hi Alan, what I really wanna point out is that does it always retest the nearest opposite (LL/HH) sides or not? I tried to point out in my image is the opposite sides but not the nearest one and dont know if it would test these level or retest others (those may not nearest that are not can even showed in the image). I am so sorry that I did not taking note well on that image :<
  • #9,964
  • Nov 22, 2024 1:48pm Nov 22, 2024 1:48pm
A tough week with regard chart time but got a few trades in and got a reasonable return eventually.
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  • #9,965
  • Nov 23, 2024 2:33am Nov 23, 2024 2:33am
Well. this week we saw the 4-hour AB=CD was hit and then some. Price then went on to test the next average swing low as the EMA broke the current swing low.

All very normal actions and reactions in my book.

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And what about the15-min chart?

Well once the run was on with the 4-hour we see on the 15-min price was not able to get back up across the average.

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  • #9,966
  • Edited 1:16pm Nov 24, 2024 1:00pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting Fiona96
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I don't know how you lose yourself tracking the swing levels. I would say it is very beneficial to not only track the levels but also comment them on your charts, so you get a good handle on the way the market moves. I am marking this 15-min chart with large text for you all to read but for yourself use small text so as not to clutter the chart. You can also colour code your target lines, so you get accustomed to the visual recognition of them. The chart above is meaningless to me, it could be anything. Here I have
...
Just my little input on this subject, still learning myself. We are looking for zones of opportunity-ZOO (EMA swing levels, HH or LL. Divergence at a ZOO point gets us interested in taking a trade and we must determine from the LTF which way it wants to go.
Take this daily chart for example, what do we see?
Divergence should get us back to the EMA. A failure to do this means a HH or LL.
Hopefully a divergence will get us across the EMA to test the over side = big payday.
The over side ZOO point testing could mean a bounce back or continue down thru like we have seen the last couple weeks.
I am now watching closely the current price to see if this daily ZOO point will hold or not. Notice its a Pin bar and we have divergence as well.
Weekly chart is yet to make a Bear support so could go up.
Mostly checking the H1 close to see what's happening and hoping for H1 Bull support to go long but also could be some more downside action.
Distance to target is crucial as well before we trade as could be just choppy and we take more losses.
Looking at the M15 we have bull support with EMA around 20 pips away and the target is approx. 40 pips away. Will check again at our trade time to see if a long punt is on the cards.

A
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  • #9,967
  • Nov 29, 2024 3:45am Nov 29, 2024 3:45am
The 4-hour made it only to bounce down again at D...

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The monthly is showing the bears are still trying to break the bull support level.
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  • #9,968
  • Nov 29, 2024 2:02pm Nov 29, 2024 2:02pm
Lost the plot this week with a lack of screen time. Most trades getting kicked out for BE and I am still looking for reversals. Need to recalibrate and go with the trend more.
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  • #9,969
  • Nov 30, 2024 2:14am Nov 30, 2024 2:14am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Lost the plot this week with a lack of screen time. Most trades getting kicked out for BE and I am still looking for reversals. Need to recalibrate and go with the trend more. {image}
It is a good idea to check your performance to find what could be done better and what not to do again.

This helps in the building of a trading plan ensuring all aspects are covered.

Everyone will end up with a different plan because of all the variables some of which are personal to the individual.
  • #9,970
  • Dec 1, 2024 3:13am Dec 1, 2024 3:13am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} It is a good idea to check your performance to find what could be done better and what not to do again. This helps in the building of a trading plan ensuring all aspects are covered. Everyone will end up with a different plan because of all the variables some of which are personal to the individual.
Reviewing the weeks action in hindsight and I can see the ZOO points that I should have been watching.
Monday and Tuesday ranging finally broke on Wednesday with a failed divergence to take us higher Thursday and Friday.
I think my new plan needs to be find the ZOO point with divergence on the H1 (check the chart at H1 candle close). Then wait on the M5 for a support signal providing target distance is enough to make some pips at least get to BE.
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  • #9,971
  • Dec 2, 2024 2:12pm Dec 2, 2024 2:12pm
Got lucky today. Pending short got hit for +35.
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  • #9,972
  • Dec 3, 2024 2:14pm Dec 3, 2024 2:14pm
Missed the move at our trading time but managed to grab +25 just now after spotting H1 divergence at the previous EMA swing level.
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  • #9,973
  • Dec 6, 2024 12:06pm Dec 6, 2024 12:06pm
Been a busy week doing work stuff getting closer to xmas but managed to get a few trades in. Still having problems spotting failed divergence and then making a HH = trending. But overall happy with progress so far. 4% a week is enough to retire on.
I might go thru the thread again to see if I missed anything.
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  • #9,974
  • Dec 11, 2024 2:03pm Dec 11, 2024 2:03pm
This week is not going well. A bunch of ranging so far around the daily EMA looking for direction.
  • #9,975
  • Edited 2:29pm Dec 13, 2024 1:55pm | Edited 2:29pm
Struggled for chart time week as work busy. Managed to grab a couple % in between jobs tho. I expect trading will drop off on the run up to xmas and new year so might not be much action till the new year now. Will keep watching when I can.
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  • #9,976
  • Dec 13, 2024 11:50pm Dec 13, 2024 11:50pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Struggled for chart time week as work busy. Managed to grab a couple % in between jobs tho. I expect trading will drop off on the run up to xmas and new year so might not be much action till the new year now. Will keep watching when I can. {image} {image}
Yep, we all get a tad busy with family and friends at this time of the year. Our time may be better spent on reflection.

Kids here are now on their summer holidays and the weather starts to warm up somewhat. Tomorrow we are expecting 40c so time to hit the beaches for a bit of fresh air and a cool dip in the briny.

Should be an interesting year next with Trump threatening anything his pea brain can come up with. The more he wields his big stick the less people want to have any dealings with him. Canada supplies the vast majority of the electricity and the oil to the USA, and he threatens them with tariffs?

I have been watching the US for years as greed and the chase for the dollar has turned the place into a dump. They think the USA is the greatest thing since slice bread because they are taught to think that way. Buy American means the rich become super rich and the people pay top dollar. I have been there several times for work reasons, and it stinks. Bad air, bad food, bad pay, pollution is everywhere and the rats...what is that all about.

No worries though Trump to the rescue, he may even put a lick of paint on those disgusting railway stations. I suspect though he will nick the paint for a building project.

Happy Christmas to all.
  • #9,977
  • Dec 20, 2024 10:51am Dec 20, 2024 10:51am
Wasn't expecting much action this week so happy with what I ended up with. Another positive week and I guess that's it for trading till the new year comes round again. Time to review the charts and past trades, see where we can improve the trading plan. I can foresee a live account happening next year so for now all the best to you guys, have an enjoyable xmas break and come back in the new year all refreshed and ready to hit the 10% a week target.
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Demo account Since Sept 1st 2024
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  • #9,978
  • Jan 2, 2025 6:12am Jan 2, 2025 6:12am
Bit late for this party. kicked me out for +25 pips and looks to be going down some more.
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  • #9,979
  • Jan 3, 2025 1:38pm Jan 3, 2025 1:38pm
Short week but got a few pips in.
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  • #9,980
  • Jan 4, 2025 3:32am Jan 4, 2025 3:32am
OK, holiday over and back to trading on Monday.

Hope everyone had a good break and feel refreshed for the year ahead.

Lots of drama in the world should make for some interesting situations.

We'll see...

All the best guys.
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