Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

i wish you best of luck

13 Things You Can 100% Rely On A Narcissist To Do
https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qi...0bc40c086b9a75
1. Ruin a special occasion
2. Mistreat their own children
3. Treat strangers better than their loved ones
4. Kick you when you're down
5. Twist everything you say & do
6. Lie about anything & everything
7. Make you feel lonelier than ever before
8. Make you feel unworthy & unloved
9. Emotionally drain you
10. Destroy your trust in human nature
11. Make you feel hopeless with yourself
12. Leave you with anxiety, exhaustion & shame
13. Devalue, betray & reject everything that you have ever given them

When you no longer let them manipulate you, be prepared to see a version of them you've never seen before.

It was funny that I posed what I found the morning on Narcissist behavior before seeing this message, amazing what we can learn from Quora daily messages.
When you no longer let them manipulate you, be prepared to see a version of them you've never seen before.
. Twist everything you say & do
Lie about anything & everything
. Make you feel unworthy & unloved
. Make you feel hopeless with yourself

Good morning World !!!
DM has helped himself and his family by analyzing his own actions or non actions. A few of my close friends such as Dovid and my dear sister RLM have read Thickpipe's opinion about Bruce Warren Margolese soon to change his name to Benjamin Israel Margolese as G-d has helped in making the decision.


Just for the record I am 80 years of age to turn 81 G-d willing on December 31, 2024 at 2:00 AM.

I am a Man of G-d who since December 31, 2023 has not shaved or had any alcohol. I am a Nazerite for the rest of my days on earth.

I do not smoke cigarettes or cigars or weed and do not gamble or womanize and do not waste seed.

I have had an amazing life and those that really know me understand me.

I was put on Earth for a reason that only G-d knew and it took me at least 48 years to learn why starting with a book called Ethics from Sinai.

My dear aunt and best friend who lived to age 100 and went to heaven on October 30, 2014. My mom her sister died on June 13, 1995 and lived to age 80

My father Mitch (Michael) taught me about RESPECT and my mother Toby Frankel Margolese showed me unconditional LOVE.

So in closing MR THiCKPIPE perhaps you might want to put your own life in order before you JUDGE another when you are actually just talking about yourself. I care about you and your wife and two amazing children.

So I close my comments with the two KEY WORDS - RESPECT and LOVE and words are words however ACTIONS show who you are. AMEN - Thank G-d.

https://dailyreckoning.com/central-b...ullion-trucks/

https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net.../AdamSharp.jpg

By Adam Sharp

December 12, 2024
Central Banks Back Up the Bullion Trucks

Beep–beep–beep. Central bankers are again “backing up the truck” to buy gold.

The World Gold Council (WGC) recently released its central bank gold statistics for October 2024.
The chart below shows purchases (blue) and sales (purple):
https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1...-12-12-24.jpeg
Source: World Gold Council

October was the highest net purchase month in 2024, with central banks purchasing a sizable 60 tonnes.
It’s worth noting that there were almost zero sales during the month. Up until October, every month in 2024 had substantial buys and sells.

Through Q3, central banks have reported an impressive 694 tonnes of gold purchases. And that’s almost certainly an understatement because we don’t truly know how much gold China, Russia, and other countries from that bloc are purchasing. The true number for 2024 could easily be near 1,400 tonnes or higher.

Annual gold production from mines is around 3,000 tonnes, so this is a substantial percentage of new supply. At this rate, central banks alone could be buying up to 45% of newly mined gold this year.

Here’s another chart from the WGC’s recent central bank report, showing updated year-to-date net purchases and sales.
https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1...-12-12-24.jpeg
Source: WGC

Once we consider that China and Russia are likely buying far more gold than reported here, this is a very interesting chart indeed.
The largest BRICS countries are gobbling up gold like we’re on the verge of something major.

Poland, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are the only NATO countries on gold-buying sprees. They also happen to be the most nationalist members of NATO—no coincidence there.

The largest gold sellers, the Philippines and Thailand happen to be major U.S. allies in Asia. These two countries are still in the “king dollar” camp and are not yet buying into gold mania. Either that, or they desperately need the cash.

Confiscating Russian Assets
U.S. and EU leaders have long discussed the possibility of using more than $300 billion of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.
Well, it’s finally happening. On December 11th, UPI reported that the first $20 billion had been transferred to a Ukrainian account.

The United States has given Kyiv a $20 billion loan funded by Russian assets frozen since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago.
The disbursement was announced Tuesday by the U.S. Treasury, whose secretary, Janet Yellen, said in a statement that the funds “will provide Ukraine a critical infusion of support as it defends its country against an unprovoked war of aggression.”

This action, while seemingly small in scope, is a primary driver of central bank gold demand. The trend of de-dollarization truly picked up steam in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, which prompted the confiscation of more than $300 billion of Russian reserve assets.

As we have discussed extensively, this was a key turning point for the world monetary system. All of a sudden, central banks no longer saw their dollar reserves as risk-free assets. Overnight they became risk-laden.

At the time Russia invaded Ukraine, gold was trading around $1,860/oz. It is now up 44% from that point. A massive move in such a short period.
As we discussed in Metal Mania Starts Soon, this move has almost exclusively been driven by central bank demand.

“There’s a rich irony in the fact that the primary gold bulls today aren’t individual investors, it’s the guys running the fiat printers. This is an insider buy signal at a global scale. And these aren’t fickle day traders in for a quick flip. These central banks have a new reserve policy, and it appears to heavily favour gold.”

I don’t see central banks slowing their buying pace anytime soon. The world’s monetary order is shifting, and at times like these, the safest thing to buy is an apolitical hard currency: gold.

Eventually, retail and professional investors will catch on to the trend, and then we’ll be off to the races. At that point, I believe Silver will set for a big move-up.

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The Choice
Posted on November 22, 2024, by MN Gordon

https://economicprism.com/wp-content...nggnashing.jpg“And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.” – Matthew 25:30

Daycare for Adults
Sometimes things must get worse before they get better. Reducing deficit spending and eliminating government waste, for example, will initially have a negative impact on GDP and employment. Though, this is exactly what is needed to restore America’s economic health.

U.S. government spending has run riot for over 50 years. Over the last two decades, it has gone completely berserk. In fact, since 2004, the national debt has jumped from $8 trillion to $36 trillion.

All this debt-based government spending has created massive distortions in the economy. The price of consumer goods, a glut of unproductive government jobs, the appearance of economic growth, and more. The effects of government spending range far and wide.
Without question, government spending is responsible for the inflation of consumer prices. However, it is also responsible for the inflation of key government statistics. Specifically, GDP and employment.

In 2023, nearly 25 percent of all job additions were government jobs. And over the last 12 months, government jobs increased by an average of 43,000 per month. In addition, according to the latest GDP figure, government spending accounted for 30 percent of the annualized growth.
Should Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy make good on their intentions to hit the delete button on numerous federal agencies and eliminate $2 trillion in government spending, two notable things will happen. GDP will topple over and the unemployment rate will skyrocket.

Nonetheless, if you care about America’s long-term financial and economic health, this is the best thing that can happen. Jobs that are nothing more than daycare for adults shouldn’t exist.

Egg Hunts
Statistics like GDP and employment can be misleading if you don’t consider what goes into them. Are they the aggregate of real economic activity or are they composed of something phony?
In short, when GDP and employment statistics are inflated by reckless fiscal policies, they stop being measurements of economic health and become barometers of self-destruction.

How did we get here?
The fall from grace can be traced to several sources. The passage of the federal income tax and the creation of the Federal Reserve, both in 1913, are certainly part of the genesis.

However, the rationale for using deficit spending to boost GDP and employment was triggered by the 1936 publication of John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

Not only is the book rigorously indecipherable. It also has the ill effect of making those who read it dumber. Unfortunately, Keynes’ drivel became the standard for reckless economic thinking, which still drives economic policy to this day.

Many politicians and establishment economists remain enamoured with Keynes’ gibberish. They love that it provides an academic rationale for governments to do what they love to do most – borrow money and spend it on ridiculous programs. Central planners also love that it gives them an economic basis for carrying out their absurd designs.

For example, Keynes advocated filling bottles with money and burying them in coal mines for people to dig up as a way to end unemployment. According to Keynes, this would provide jobs and money for the unemployed. Somehow, these public works egg hunts would create an economic boom and make everyone rich.

Alien Invasions
Over the years this reasoning has inspired countless government stunts to save the economy from itself. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the American Rescue Plan of 2021 are two mega Keynesian-inspired spending bills passed this century. The U.S. will never be able to overcome the consequences of these asinine programs.

In practice, the execution of Keynesian-inspired spending programs never lives up to their promises of economic vitality. Debt ends up outpacing GDP growth by leaps and bounds.

In 1980, federal debt was about $1 trillion while GDP was $2.8 trillion. Today, federal debt is over $36 trillion while GDP is around $29 trillion. Thus, over the last 44 years, GDP has increased by a factor of 10 while federal debt has increased by a factor of 36.

With this track record of economic growth significantly lagging behind the growth of government debt, any justification for using deficit spending as a means to grow the economy out of debt is absolute nonsense. Still, Nobel Prize-winning economists are fully committed to chasing Keynesian economics to insanity.
Just over a decade ago, Keynes devotee, Paul Krugman, took the logic of Keynesian economics and ran with it to the outer limits of deep space. In the process, he lost his mind.

Following his righteous departure from planet Earth, Krugman went on cable television and explained that the proper way to propel an economic growth chart up and to the right is to borrow massive amounts of money and spend it preparing for an alien invasion.

The Choice
Absurd fiscal policies over many decades have created an economy, and hundreds of thousands of employees, that are largely dependent on government spending. This is the economy that President-elect Trump is inheriting when he comes into office.

He is up against an unworkable task. He must address a mega debt crisis that’s partly of his own making. The last time Trump was President the national debt increased by $8 trillion.

At this point, the only way to fix the economy and America’s finances is to first burn them to the ground. The distortions accumulated over many decades are too great. They cannot be undone without first making things worse.

Many years ago, Ludwig von Mises, in Human Action, presented the unpleasant choice that Trump must make.

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
What Musk and Ramaswamy are advocating as part of their Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is the alternative of the crisis coming “sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion.” The crisis, to be clear, is a deep recession or depression.

It is the right choice, given the poor state of Washington’s finances. But is it already too late to avoid a total catastrophe of the dollar?
There is no way to know for sure. What is known is this:
The mass culling of federal workers. The abrupt eradication of deficit spending. The collapse of GDP and the rise in unemployment. These things are needed to return the USA to a place of good health.

Yet the interim period, which may last for a generation or two, will be of much weeping and gnashing of teeth.
[Editor’s note: Have you ever heard of Henry Ford’s dream city of the South? Chances are you haven’t. That’s why I’ve recently published an important special report called, “Utility Payment Wealth – Profit from Henry Ford’s Dream City Business Model.” If discovering how this little-known aspect of American history can make you rich is of interest to you, then I encourage you to pick up a copy. It will cost you less than a penny.]

Sincerely,
MN Gordon
for Economic Prism

Return from The Choice to Economic Prism

This entry was posted in Economy and tagged doge, elon musk, employment, GDP, vivek ramaswamy. Bookmark the permalink.
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2 Responses to The Choice

1. https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3...40&d=blank&r=gArt Massucco says:
   November 23, 2024, at 1:35 pm
   The recent adoption of Modern Monetary Theory by the democrats is an extension of Keynesian economics using excessive fiat currency spending to drive the economy. But do not overlook the start of globalization in the 1980’s using Milton Friedman’s libertarian model which was adopted by Reagan and Greenspan, etc. G.W. Bush also championed this plan. Another stupid get-rich-quick plan.
2. 
   
   Also, it should be obvious to any intelligent person that without strong controls, capitalism will eventually evolve into fascism. All this is just common sense.
3. 
   
   Reply
4. https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/f...40&d=blank&r=gDave in California says:
   November 25, 2024 at 8:21 am
   Thank you for a well-organized essay.
   Now in my sixties, I often consider how the various women I encountered, were enabled into poverty as compared to the ones that navigated thru their life with good care and fortune. I viewed each of them as amplifications of the past 50 years of society wandering thru cognitive deserts.
   In the “red state” worlds, women have narrow utility. Only later in life would I consider how much more difficult it was for them to survive in an urban setting.
5. 
   
   Growing up on a farm, I instinctively learned “goodwill” which could be summarized as “the greater good to be shared by everyone”.Goodwill is a navigational principle, that’s found in the minority, and it’s often taken for granted in those that have it.
   Reply

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Economic Prism

From my post 2210 and this part is extremely important to follow and understand.

In addition, there is a segment devoted to Complexity Theory and The Triffin Dilemma which is very topical at present given President Trump has said he wants everything his way immediately regardless of what history teaches us.

https://dailyreckoning.com/triffins-...uture-of-sdrs/

Triffin’s Dilemma and the Future of SDRs

If you don’t know who Robert Triffin is, you should read this closely.

Triffin was a Belgian economist who lived from 1911–1993. He was regarded as one of the leading authorities on gold, currencies and the international monetary system during his career. He made many notable contributions to international economics, but his most famous was the articulation of what became known as “Triffin’s dilemma.”

The paradox of Triffin’s dilemma was pointed out in the early 1960s, yet its implications are just now coming into full view. Far from a relic of the past, Triffin’s dilemma is the key to understanding the future of the international monetary system.

Triffin’s dilemma arose from the Bretton Woods system established in 1944. Under that system, the dollar was pegged to gold at $35.00 per ounce. Other major currencies were pegged to the dollar at fixed exchange rates. The architects of the system knew that these other exchange rates might have to be devalued from time to time, mostly because of trade deficits, but the devaluation process was designed to be slow and cumbersome.

A country that wanted to devalue (for example, the U.K. in 1967) first had to consult with the International Monetary Fund, IMF. The IMF would typically recommend structural changes, to fiscal policy, tax policy and other areas designed to cure the trade deficit.

The IMF also stood ready to offer bridge loans of hard currency to help the deficit-hit country withstand temporary stresses while the structural changes were implemented. Only if the structural changes failed and the trade deficits were persistent would the IMF allow devaluation.

That was the process for countries other than the U.S. As far as the U.S. was concerned, the link between gold and the dollar was fixed for all time and could never be changed. The dollar/gold link was the anchor of the entire system.

This fixed link between the dollar and gold made the dollar the most prized reserve currency in the world. That was the hidden agenda of Bretton Woods. With the dollar as the main reserve currency, U.K. pounds sterling, a competing reserve currency, would eventually fall by the wayside.

The U.K. relied on Imperial Preference among its trading partners in the British Commonwealth to gain trade surpluses and also relied on the willingness of those Commonwealth partners to hold sterling in their reserves. The Bank of England assumed Commonwealth members would not ask to convert the sterling to gold.

Imperial Preference came under attack by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the GATT, which was also part of Bretton Woods. (Today, GATT is known as the World Trade Organization, WTO.)

Bretton Woods was a one-two combination punch designed by the U.S. to destroy the British empire. GATT undermined Imperial Preference. The dollar-gold link undermined sterling. It worked. The U.K.’s trade deficits persisted, and the Commonwealth partners demanded their gold. Eventually, the pound sterling was devalued, and the empire dissolved. It was replaced by a new age of U.S. empire and the King Dollar.

There was only one problem, and Robert Triffin pointed this out. If the dollar was the lead reserve currency, then the entire world needed dollars to finance world trade. To supply these dollars, the U.S. had to run trade deficits.

The U.S. sold a lot of goods abroad, but Americans quickly developed an appetite for Japanese electronics, German cars, French vacations and other foreign goods and services. Today, China has replaced Japan as the main source of exports to the U.S.; still, Americans have not lost their appetite for imports financed by printing dollars.

So the U.S. ran trade deficits, the world got dollars and global trade flourished. But if you run deficits long enough, you go broke. That was Triffin’s dilemma. Any system based on dollars would eventually cause the dollar to collapse because there would either be too many dollars or not enough gold at fixed prices to keep the game going. This paradox between dollar deficits and dollar confidence was unsustainable.

This system did break down in the 1970s. The solution then was to abolish the dollar-gold peg in 1971 and demonetize gold in 1974. But there was a third leg of the stool invented in 1969 — the IMF’s Special Drawing Right, SDR.

The SDR was a new kind of world money printed by the IMF. The idea was that it could be used as a reserve currency side by side with the dollar. This meant that if the U.S. cured its trade deficit, and supplied fewer dollars to the world, any shortfall in reserves could be made up by printing SDRs.

SDRs were printed and handed out repeatedly during the dollar crisis from 1969–1980. But then a new King Dollar age was started by Paul Volcker and Ronald Reagan, with some help from Henry Kissinger, the king of Saudi Arabia and private bankers like my old boss Walter Wriston at Citibank.

Under the new King Dollar system, U.S. interest rates would be high enough to make the dollar an attractive reserve asset even without gold backing. Remember those 20% interest rates of the early 1980s?

Henry Kissinger also persuaded Saudi Arabia to keep pricing oil in dollars. This “petrodollar deal” meant that countries that wanted oil needed dollars to pay for it whether they liked the dollar or not.

https://files.admin.agorafinancial.c...se-635x120.jpg

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The Arabs deposited the dollars they received in Citibank, Chase and the other big banks of the day. The bankers, led by Wriston at Citibank and David Rockefeller at Chase, then loaned the money to Asia, South America and Africa.

From there, the dollars were used to buy U.S. exports like aircraft, heavy equipment and agricultural produce. Suddenly, the game started up again, this time without gold. This new Age of King Dollar lasted from 1980–2010.

Still, it was all based on confidence in the dollar. Triffin’s dilemma never went away; it was just in the background waiting to re-emerge while the world binged on new dollar creation and forgot about gold. The U.S. ran persistent large trade deficits during this entire 30-year period as Triffin predicted. The world gorged on dollar reserves with China leading the way in the 1990s and early 2000s.

The new game ended in 2010 with the start of a currency war in the aftermath of the Panic of 2008. Trading partners are again jockeying for position as they did in the early 1970s. A new systemic collapse is waiting in the wings.

The weak dollar of 2011 was designed to stimulate U.S. growth and keep the world from sinking into a new depression. It worked in the short run, but now the tables are turned. Today, the dollar is strong, and the euro and yen have weakened. This gives Japan and Europe some relief, but it comes at the expense of the U.S., where growth has slowed down again.

The new dollar-yuan peg with China has also contributed to a slowdown in China. There’s just not enough global growth to go around. The major trading and finance powers are cannibalizing each other with weak currencies. Soon the U.S. and China may devalue relative to Europe and Japan, but that just moves the global weakness back to them.

Is there no way to escape the room? Is there no way out of Triffin’s dilemma?

A new gold standard might be one way to solve the problem, but it would require a gold price of $10,000 per ounce to be nondeflationary. No central banker in the world wants that because it limits their ability to print money and be central economic planners.

Is there an alternative to gold? There is one other way out. That’s our old friend, the SDR. The brilliance of the SDR solution is that it solves Triffin’s dilemma.

Recall the paradox is that the reserve currency issuer has to run trade deficits, but if you run deficits long enough, you go broke. But SDRs are issued by the IMF. The IMF is not a country and does not have a trade deficit. In theory, the IMF can print SDRs forever and never go broke. The SDRs just go round and round among the IMF members in a closed circuit.

Individuals won’t have SDRs. Only countries will have them in their reserves. These countries have no desire to break the new SDR system because they’re all in it together. The U.S. is no longer the boss. Instead, you have the “Five Families” consisting of China, Japan, the U.S., Europe and Russia operating through the IMF.

The only losers are the citizens of the IMF member countries — people like you and me — who will suffer local currency inflation. I’m preparing with gold and hard assets, but most people will be caught unaware, like the Greeks who lined up at empty ATMs last month.

This SDR system is so little understood that people won’t know where the inflation is coming from. Elected officials will blame the IMF, but the IMF is unaccountable.

That’s the beauty of SDRs — Triffin’s dilemma is solved, debt problems are inflated away and no one is accountable. That’s the global elite plan in a nutshell.

We never take our eye off the IMF and its plans to expand the use of SDRs. The IMF will include the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket over the next 12 months to make sure the Chinese are “on the bus” when the endgame begins. That’s an important step in the SDR process.

We plan to report on the IMF annual meeting in Lima, Peru, so you have a front-row seat for these developments. This story has longer to run, but the endgame is already in sight. Stay tuned…

Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: The above article was written in 2015 and as of October 2016 the YUAN is now a substantial part of SDR's. I have posted the latest here in previous posts.

We trust you enjoy this excellent read with compliments of the team.

Many regards,
Duncan Cameron The Anglo Far East Company

It is the most important article that I have read this year and the timing is perfect. The interview was given by Jim Rickards and the information is already in the hands of President Trump and his inner circle.

When you have the opportunity to read it please post your thoughts and questions here and I will do my best to answer any questions posted here.

Now on to part of post 2213 to help complete the PUZZLE.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/article...-off-has-begun

Published February 28, 2017

A Massive Sell-Off Has Begun…

Trump has a serious problem on his hands.

Foreign creditors are selling U.S. government debt like never before.

Last year, China alone sold $188 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys. That’s the most it’s ever sold in one year.

Now, China still holds about $1.06 trillion worth of U.S. government debt.

That might sound like a lot. But China hasn’t held this little U.S. debt since 2010.

• Japan’s unwinding its Treasury position, too…
It sold about 2.4 trillion yen ($21 billion) worth of U.S. debt in December.
Japan hasn’t sold that much U.S. government debt in one month since 2013. More importantly, Japan has now cut its position in U.S. Treasurys two years in a row.

• This is a serious matter…
Japan and China are America’s biggest creditors. Together, they own more than $2 trillion worth of U.S. government debt.
But they’re not the only ones pulling out of the U.S. Treasury market, either.
Saudi Arabia, Belgium, and Switzerland have recently become net sellers, too. This means they’re selling more Treasurys than they’ve been buying.

• If this continues, the U.S. government could be in big trouble...
You see, the Treasury market is where the U.S. government borrows money.

Today, foreigners own about $6 trillion worth of U.S. Treasurys. That’s nearly half of the U.S. government’s outstanding debt.
For years, countries like China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia couldn’t get enough of U.S. debt. Now, they’re selling Treasurys like they’re going out of fashion. Just look at the chart below.
http://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net...-treasurys.png

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White House Warned of Crisis April 12th
Vast implications for this country, our economy, and the 2018 midterms.

• We can’t blame these countries for lightening up on Treasurys…
The U.S. government is flat broke…

According to its calculations, the government is $20 trillion in debt. That’s twice as much debt as it had a decade ago.

Unfortunately, the situation is far worse than the government admits.

You see, the “official” debt number doesn’t include Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. According to the government, these programs pay for themselves.
Of course, everyone knows this is nonsense.

These programs don’t pay for themselves. They’re critically underfunded.

If you count these programs, the total national debt shoots well past $100 trillion. Some analysts even peg the actual debt as high as $200 trillion. That’s 10 times the U.S. economy’s annual economic output.

In short, the government is hopelessly insolvent. It has more debt than it could ever pay back.

Sooner or later, this mountain of debt will destroy the U.S. financial system. The “good news” is that this crisis could be years away.
The bad news is we have even more pressing problems.

• Trump is agitating America’s biggest creditors…
If you’ve been watching the news, you know what we’re talking about.

In the last few weeks, Trump has accused Japan and China of manipulating their currencies. On Friday, he called China the “grand champions” of currency manipulation.

Now, Trump may have a point. But let’s be honest.

He’s not doing America any favours by attacking its largest creditors.
If he keeps this up, China and Japan could retaliate by selling even more Treasurys.

This could cause Treasury yields to soar, which happens when bond prices fall.

And that’s the last thing the government can afford…

• Trump wants to spend $1 trillion rebuilding America’s aging infrastructure…
This sounds like a great idea.

After all, America’s infrastructure is in desperate need of repair. And new infrastructure projects could put a lot of Americans to work.
There’s just one problem…

Trump also wants to cut taxes. This means the government will have to borrow a lot of money to fix our roads and bridges.

That’s not going to come cheap if the sell-off in Treasurys continues.

• Rising Treasury yields are a serious threat to millions of everyday people, too…
Since the 1980s, Treasury bond prices have gone straight up.
This bull market survived three recessions, the dot-com bubble, and the last housing crisis.
When an asset does this well for this long, investors become complacent.
They buy it without thinking. They act like nothing can go wrong.
But almost nothing is going right for the Treasury market these days.

Unless this changes fast, people who own Treasurys could be in serious danger.
If you haven’t already, we encourage you to get out of Treasurys now.

Chart of the Day: Another Reason to Own Gold
Central banks are loading up on gold.
Today’s chart shows how much gold central banks bought every year since 1995.

You can see they sold more than 10,000 tons between 1995 and 2009.
Since then, central banks have been buying as much gold as they can get their hands on.
Now, we’re not fans of central bankers. But we’re also not fools…

You see, central banks run the global monetary system. They have deep pockets.
In other words, you don’t want to bet against them. You want to invest alongside them.
And right now, they’re loading up on gold.

We don’t expect this to change anytime soon.

Think about it. If Japan, China, and other countries keep selling Treasurys, they’re going to end up with a lot of extra cash. If they use just some of that money to buy bullion, the price of gold could soar.

From my post 2215 of yesterday. I am putting it all into one post so there is continuity to the understandings shared here.

Rickards: Get ready for the coming debt ceiling panic

From Jim Rickards, Editor, Rickards’ Gold Speculator:
America is going broke.

That’s not an opinion or scare tactic — it’s a fact based on simple arithmetic. President Trump could be forced to face this fact as early as March 15, the date the latest U.S. debt ceiling suspension ends.

Government debt is growing faster than the economy. If you extend that trend, and that’s exactly what official government projections do, you reach a point where higher taxes cannot cover interest expense, investors lose confidence in the bond market, and a death spiral of higher deficits, higher interest rates, and still higher deficits spins totally out of control.

This does not mean the end of America, let alone the end of the world. There are several ways out of the debt death spiral. It’s just that none of the ways out are easy, and all of them will cause massive losses to unprepared investors
.
The ways to escape the debt dilemma are default, inflation, asset sales (“What do you bid for Yellowstone National Park?”), an IMF bailout, or some combination of these…

Default imposes immediate losses on government bondholders, and mark-to-market losses on other bondholders as interest rates spike to account for increased risks.

Even the possibility of default can push world markets into a tailspin or result in a credit downgrade for the United States, which happened in 2011 during that debt ceiling crisis.

Inflation spreads the losses around to all holders of fixed dollar claims including bank deposits, money market funds, annuities, insurance policies, pensions, and long-term contracts.

Asset sales are a humiliation (just ask the Greeks). Besides, a lot of U.S. assets are not worth much to foreign investors if they cannot be removed, exploited, or used to generate cash-on-cash returns.

An IMF bailout means that the U.S. would give up partial control of its economy to an unelected, unaccountable globalist institution with unforeseen consequences such as the displacement of the dollar by the special drawing right (SDR) as the benchmark global reserve currency.

To understand why these dire outcomes are in the cards, one need only look at the U.S. debt to GDP ratio. Why is the debt-to-GDP ratio so important for understanding America’s unstable financial situation? The reason is that debt cannot be analyzed in isolation; it must be compared to the income available to support that debt.

It’s no different for a country than for an individual. If you owe $25,000 on a MasterCard that may or may not be a problem. If you make $20,000 per year, the $25,000 credit card debt will eat you alive with interest payments, and penalties and possibly cause you to file for bankruptcy. On the other hand, it you make $500,000 per year, you can probably pay off the credit card with what’s in your bank account. The point is you cannot decide whether $25,000 is a high or low debt load without looking at the income that can be used to pay it off.

The U.S. today has about $20 trillion in national debt. Is that high or low? If the GDP were $60 trillion, most economists would say the $20 trillion in debt was low and easily manageable. The debt-to-GDP ratio would be 33% (20/60 = 0.33). But, if the GDP were only $19 trillion, then the debt-to-GDP ratio would be 105% (20/19 = 1.05).

Which is it? Sad to say, it’s the latter. The U.S. debt is about $20 trillion, and U.S. GDP is about $19 trillion giving a debt-to-GDP ratio of 105%, a very dangerous level.

You can see this more clearly in the chart below. This was released in January 2017 by the Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, and shows the history of the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio from 1790 to 2017 with projections out to 2050.

https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...ederalDebt.jpg

This chart is also useful because it shows that prior peaks in the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio were associated with major wars, specifically the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, World War I and World War II. After each war, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined substantially. The U.S. went into debt to fight and win major wars and then reestablished sound national finances after the wars were over.

Interestingly, the chart shows that the last time the U.S. was debt-free was in 1836 during the administration of President Andrew Jackson. President Jackson was also famous for abolishing the Second Bank of the United States, which was the U.S. central bank of its time. Jackson believed in no debt and no central bank.

Except for the Civil War and its aftermath, the U.S. had very low debt-to-GDP ratios and no central bank from 1836 to 1913. After 1913, the U.S. again had a central bank, this time called the Federal Reserve. U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios have been considerably higher ever since.

Despite its usefulness, this CBO chart is distorted because it shows so-called “Federal Debt Held by the Public.” This requires some explanation.

Federal debt held by the public excludes federal debt held by government agencies, such as the Social Security Administration, in trust for recipients of various entitlement programs such as retirement, disability and survivors’ benefits. But, there is no sound basis for excluding that debt.

Those benefits will certainly have to be paid (neither political party is calling for entitlement reform right now), and the government securities held in trust are there to provide the means of payment. The idea that entitlements might be revised and that the debt should not be counted as “public” debt is pure fiction.

That fiction also distorts the historical comparisons. The first chart shows the historic peak debt-to-GDP ratio was about 110% in 1945 at the end of World War II, and that the current ratio is about 75%. However, there was no significant amount of non-public debt in 1945 because the entitlement programs were new, off-budget, and cash-flow positive.

The next chart offers a more recent historical perspective than the CBO chart, dated from 1940–2017. It also offers a more realistic picture of the actual debt-to-GDP situation. This chart includes all government debt including that held by government agencies to pay benefits. The comparison is more apples-to-apples.

What this chart shows is the same World War II peak (about 121%), and that the current ratio is 105% — much higher than the 75% shown in the official CBO chart above.

https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...Government.jpg

This chart also shows the steady rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio from the lows of about 33%, achieved in the 1970s during the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations, to the dangerous high of 105% reached in 2017. The modern era of exploding national debt began with Ronald Reagan and continues today with the newly installed Trump administration. That is the history we turn to now.

The fiscal policy story of the period 1981 to 2017 can be summed up in a curious phrase: Feed the beast, starve the beast.

The beast, of course, is the U.S. government with its voracious appetite for taxpayer funds. Feeding the beast refers to huge deficits and expanded spending. Starving the beast refers to spending cuts and fiscal prudence. These alternating bouts of spending increases and spending cuts are amplified or mitigated by tax cuts and tax increases. These make the deficits worse, or in some cases better than they would be based on spending alone.

The problem is that the feed-the-beast, starve-the-beast strategy has been used by successive administrations to tie the hands of their successors with mixed results. It is this political dynamic, combined with the simple math of deficits and growth, which has led to the dangerous state the U.S. finds itself in today.

The culmination of almost forty years of fiscal irresponsibility (with a few exceptions) has now been dumped in Donald Trump’s lap. The debt trap is not Donald Trump’s fault, but it will be his issue to resolve because it is now reaching a critical state. This debt wall may be the defining policy issue of the Trump administration although it is receiving little attention at the moment. As the debt ceiling talks approach, you’ll hear more about this in the mainstream.

A bond market revolt, borderline hyperinflation or a deflationary debt implosion are all possible outcomes.

Regards,
Jim Rickards
Crux note: Jim believes this debt-ceiling situation will be a huge catalyst for gold, just like it was in 2011.

From my post 2219 from today March 1, 2017, in FULL...

Good Day Folks

I have just returned to my office and the reason that I took time off was to see how much the PERCEPTION changed in the last 24 hours.

I discuss and explain about PERCEPTION (MARKETS) and REALITY (FUNDAMENTALS)

We have on top of that CRITICAL GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES such as the EVENTUAL BREAKUP of the Euro Zone. The VERY DIFFICULT situation in China with money flowing out and many other serious issues.

THE KEY POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THE PERCEPTION (MARKETS) are right now and wrong shortly. So we watch where the MONEY is FLOWING with Risk Off and watch the CORRELATION between Asset Classes and when we have Risk On, then everything will REVERSE and probably in a very EXTREME WAY.

In the next two weeks, there are MAJOR EVENTS to be aware of such as does the FED raise and what will they do about the TWENTY TRILLION DOLLAR DEBT CEILING good only until March 15, 2017.

As always it would be helpful for everyone if thoughts and questions are shared so I understand if you understand.

From my post-2221

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tre...teid=rss&rss=1

Treasury yields see largest one-day increase since November

Published: Mar 1, 2017 3:59 p.m. ET

10-year yield tops 2.45%; 30-year yield climbs above 3

By
JOSEPHADINOLFI
MARKETS REPORTER

Treasury yields on Wednesday notched their largest one-day increase since mid-November after the perceived probability of a March rate hike increased dramatically following hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials.

The odds that the Fed will raise interest rates at its coming two-day meeting, which begins on March 14, climbed to around 70% on Wednesday, up from around 30% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Investors largely attributed the jump in yields to comments from New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams, both of whom spoke on Tuesday.

Dudley told CNN that the case for raising interest rates has strengthening, triggering a sharp jump in the dollar and Treasury yields. Bond yields rise as prices fall. As the president of the New York Fed, Dudley holds a permanent vote on the central bank’s rate-setting committee. Williams is not a voting member this year, but said there will be “serious consideration” of a hike in March.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on Wednesday reiterated his view that rates should rise sooner rather than later.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +2.58% rose 10.4 basis points to 2.462%, while the yield on the two-year note TMUBMUSD02Y, +2.22%rose 7.2 basis points to 1.288%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bondTMUBMUSD30Y, +2.12% climbed 10 basis points to 3.070%. It was the largest one-day rise for the two- and 10-year notes since Nov. 14. For the 30-year bond, it was the largest since Nov. 9, the day after President Donald Trump’s upset electoral victory.

Some expressed incredulity that interest-rate futures markets, from which the rate-hike odds are derived, moved so swiftly to price in higher odds of a March hike.

“I am a bit surprised the market is so aggressive before Yellen and Fischer at the end of the week and non-farm next week,” said Marvin Loh, senior global markets strategist at BNY Mellon.

Turning to the economic data calendar, the Fed’s Beige Book suggested that business optimism has cooled in the wake of the presidential election.

Meanwhile, the PCE price index, a popular gauge of consumer-price inflation, showed prices in January accelerated at their fastest pace since 2012.

Investors also heralded Trump’s first speech to a joint session of Congress as a success, though they lamented the fact that it lacked any new details about his fiscal policy agenda.

Ahead of the speech, investors had hoped that Trump would offer more information about the sweeping tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure-spending plan that he promised during his campaign.

Read: Treasury yields rise as Fed’s Kaplan says next hike to come ‘shortly’

Read: The border-adjusted tax could hurt some of the world’s most vulnerable economies

“Trump was Trumped by Dudley and the Fed,” said David Schnautz, fixed-income strategist at Commerzbank. “As long as we don’t get any curveballs from the labour market report or the speeches from Yellen and Fischer, we’ll be in good shape for a hike,” Schnautz said.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer are expected to deliver public remarks on Friday, their last before the Fed enters a quiet period ahead of its coming two-day policy meeting, which begins March 14.

The February jobs report is due on March 10.

A selloff in German bunds also helped boost Treasury yields as U.S. markets moved in sympathy, Schnautz said.

The yield on the 10-year bund TMBMKDE-10Y, +37.76% considered the European benchmark, climbed 7.3 basis points to 0.282%.

And finally from my post 2218 to TIE IT ALL TOGETHER, The wise words of Martin Armstrong and why you need to see the big picture and put all your opinions aside especially if they are NOT INFORMED OPINIONS.

I will return later this morning to explain how everything is now tied together and what it means for the future of the world. However, before I stop posting for a while I will repeat what opened my eyes and thoughts and here is the part of Martin's Blog that I will enhance later today. Think about it very carefully.

This is a HUGE problem. The crisis in funds management illustrates what I have been warning about. OPINION is your worst enemy. I try on this blog to cover the world range of topics. To be a good hedge fund manager. the first thing you MUST do is be on top of everything unfolding in the world ALL the time. The tsunami waves of market corrections and breakouts ALWAYS unfold from an international perspective. Even the US media never really talked about BREXIT until about 10 days before it even took place. You cannot successfully invest or manage money and be oblivious to world trends.

That is it for me for today. You are welcome to share this post and I look forward to questions and your thoughts.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
BRUCE WARREN MARGOLESE
263 778 3577

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In-Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.
Sunday, December 15, 2024

FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2024 at 10:22:00 AM

Most analysts expect the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp at the meeting this week, lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March meeting.

From BofA:
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp at its Dec meeting. Powell is likely to point to a slower pace of cuts thereafter, including a pause in Jan, in his presser. The dot plot should show three cuts in 2025 and a higher neutral rate. Consistent with this, we think the macro forecasts will indicate slightly stronger inflation next year and higher longer-run growth. Policymakers won’t account for the Trump agenda in their base case, but the balance of risks should give a sense of their assessment of potential policy changes.
emphasis added

Projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the September projections. The focus will be on changes to the projections for next year.

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation is close to expectations(although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).

The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1. Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%. That would put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20241.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.1
June 20241.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.1---
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1%). This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20244.3 to 4.44.2 to 4.54.0 to 4.44.0 to 4.4
June 20243.9 to 4.23.9 to 4.33.9 to 4.3---
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20242.2 to 2.42.1 to 2.22.02.0
June 20242.5 to 2.92.2 to 2.42.0 to 2.1---

PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20242.6 to 2.72.1 to 2.32.02.0
June 20242.8 to 3.02.3 to 2.42.0 to 2.1---


Weekly Schedule

Posted by Calculated Riskon 12/15/2024 10:22:00 AM

PLEASE LISTEN TO RAY DALIO

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024...r-traders.html

Three Challenging Questions For Traders

https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...CEIsjSrvdwTdpw
12/12/24 - All good work on improving ourselves increases our capacity to sustain work on ourselves. Just as in a gym, our workouts build our ability to sustain work: when we grow our trading, we grow ourselves, and that is growth of our free will: our capacity to grow.

12/11/24 - Here is a formula for making positive changes going into the new year: Think big, implement small. What that means is that it's important to have a vision and mission that inspires and energizes you, but it's equally important to implement that vision with concrete activities, goals, and plans every single day. Add one positive action to your routine each day that implements your big picture vision. Incorporate that new action every single day in the same way for a month and then add another positive action in the same way. Step by step, you move toward your ideal. Change requires inspiration; change requires consistency. What you do shapes your mindset. Each day, be a little more of the person you're ultimately meant to be.

As we get to the end of the year and you review your performance, here are three tough questions to ask yourself (and answer!):

1) If a basketball or football team prepared for its next opponent with the intensity and thoroughness that I bring to my daily preparation for trading, how well would they do?

2) If I entered an elevator and saw a famous venture capitalist riding with me, what pitch would I make for my trading business and how likely would it be that he/she invest in my trading?

3) What have I been successful at before my trading career and how, specifically, do I leverage that talent in my current trading to achieve positive and unique returns?

Mindset will never make you a successful trader. What you do to pursue your distinctive trading success empowers your mindset.

Further Reading:
Three Questions to Ask About Your Positive Trading Psychology

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us...-38-month-high

US Manufacturing PMI Plunges As Services Soar To 38-Month-High, But...

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Monday, December 16, 2024 - 09:55 AM

Following Europe's mixed bag of PMIs (Manufacturing contracting harder as Services save the composites in France, Germany, & UK - but all still in contraction overall), S&P Global's US Manufacturing and Services were expected to decline modestly in preliminary December data released this morning.
Analysts were half right... as US Manufacturing PMI plunged to 48.3 (from 49.7 and below all expectations) but US Services soared higher (to 58.5 from 56.1, far above all expectations)

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=USsJAPJi

And that has all happened as 'hard' data has been serially outperforming...

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=yaadlH6Z
Source: Bloomberg

The Services survey hits a 38-month high as US Manufacturing Output plummets to a 55-month low...

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=sOQS9Nh8

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“Business is booming in the US services economy, where output is growing at the sharpest rate since the reopening of the economy from COVID lockdowns in 2021. The service sector expansion is helping drive overall growth in the economy to its fastest for nearly three years, consistent with GDP rising at an annualized rate of just over 3% in December.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=96cVS8ct

“It’s a different picture in manufacturing, however, where output is falling sharply and at an increased rate, in part due to weak export demand.
Encouragingly, confidence in the 12-month outlook has lifted to a two-and-a-half-year high, suggesting the robust economic upturn will persist into the new year and could also become more broad-based by sector.

However, Williamson notes that some of the high spirits seen after the election in the manufacturing sector have been checked over concerns surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on inflation resulting from the higher cost of imported materials.

December saw raw material prices spike sharply higher amid supplier-led price rises and higher shipping costs, in a reflection of busier supply chains in advance of threatened protectionism in the new year.”

So surging economy and rising prices... not exactly the recipe for more rate cuts this week?

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bit...reserve-status

Bitcoin’s price rallied almost 5% over the weekend to set a new all-time high above $106,000 amid speculation that it may become a United States reserve asset.


https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=Pp6yGUAX

CK Zheng, chief investment officer of ZK Square, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has likely entered “Santa Claus mode,” as many investors fear missing out and look to allocate more capital into the asset class.

He predicted a Bitcoin price tag of $125,000 in early 2025 but warned a possible 30% correction could follow as most of the bullish news from the incoming Trump administration has been “priced in.”

A 30% correction from $125,000 would see Bitcoin retrace to around $87,500.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=YLhIDqic

From a liquidity perspective, we should not be surprised that bitcoin continues to charge higher (but the new year may bring some weakness)...

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=tySRDnoT
Bitcoin has also reached a new record relative to gold (1 BTC can now buy 40 oz of gold).

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ifK9T6su
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, writes that while the Santa Claus rally is a well-documented phenomenon in traditional stock markets, its presence in cryptocurrency is less clear.

Cryptocurrencies, known for their volatility and 24/7 trading, don’t always follow equities’ seasonal patterns. A second trend can be applied to this model that has empirically proven a powerful predictor of a Santa Claus rally occurring in Cryptoland: whether or not the market is in a bull run.

It’s safe to say that crypto firmly checks that box right now, thus making a compelling case for a severe rally coming together as the year draws close. In late 2017, for example, BTC rallied by 68% over the two weeks spanning the New Year. Subsequent years have been more muted, in line with the prevailing market mood at the time. But then there’s 2024, which has already broken all crypto records. One wouldn’t bet against it closing out the year on a tear just to complete the clean sweep.

If traders buy into the Santa Claus rally thesis, they don’t need to create a prediction market to speculate on the likelihood — although nothing is stopping them. In crypto, financial freedom comes as a standard. A more intelligent strategy is filling one’s conviction bags before the year-end. Load up on the assets you believe in the most, and then sit back and let the prophecy unfold.

As 2024 closes out, the financial landscape presents a mix of optimism and caution. The global economy has shown resilience, with many sectors rebounding from previous downturns. Consumer spending during the holiday season is expected to be robust, bolstering market sentiment. The only potential dampener could be the escalation of global tensions in the Middle East or Ukraine. Still, barring a major macro event, there’s every reason to expect the current bull market to remain intact.
Even if the Santa Claus rally proves to be a damp squib on this occasion, it’s no biggie: The bags investors have accumulated now are likely to stand them in good stead next year as the crypto market continues to grind higher. They don’t have to leave a glass of milk and some cookies out, but there’s no excuse for not being ready for Santa this Christmas.

It comes as Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers said US President-Elect Donald Trump could potentially issue an executive order designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset on his first day in office on Jan. 20.

“There’s potential to use a day-one executive order to purchase Bitcoin,” Mallers stated, adding:
“It wouldn't be the size and scale of 1 million coins but it would be a significant position."
Meanwhile, Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter said a third Bitcoin reserve bill is in the works at the state level, though he didn’t say which state might follow Texas and Pennsylvania’s lead.

“We had Pennsylvania, and we had Texas. And now we have another state coming on board. And they sent me the draft. So I know it’s real,” he said during a Dec. 15 X Spaces.

Porter added he expects at least 10 states to introduce a Bitcoin reserve bill in total.
"It's not going to stop. We're going to see more and more of these bills come. At least 10, in my opinion."
Financial analysts are also tipping a 0.25% interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve on Dec. 18, which could lift Bitcoin’s price even further in the coming months.


Another catalyst behind Bitcoin’s price surge may be one of the new rules by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which enables institutions to record the value of their crypto assets more realistically. The rule will apply to fiscal years beginning after Dec. 15.
However, bitcoin’s market sentiment is currently in the “Extreme Greed” zone at a score of 83 out of 100, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/all-th...m_medium=email

All Three Pillars Holding Up the Economy Have Cracked

Karl Marx and Henry Ford both understood the key pillar of an industrial economy: the workforce has to earn enough to buy the output of the economy. If the workforce doesn't earn enough to have surplus earnings to spend on the enormous output of an industrial economy, then the producers cannot sell their goods/services at a profit, except to the few at the top as luxury goods--and that's not an industrial economy, it's a feudal economy of very limited scope.

Marx recognized that capitalism is a self-liquidating system as capital has the power to squeeze wages even as the output of an industrial economy steadily increases due to automation, technology, etc.

Henry Ford understood that if his workforce couldn't afford to buy the cars rolling off the assembly line, then his ambition to sell a car to every household was an unreachable chimera. (There were other factors, of course; the work was so brutal and mind-numbing that Ford had to pay more just to keep workers from quitting.)

If we say the three pillars holding up the economy, the conventional list is: 1) consumer spending (i.e. aggregate demand); 2) productivity and 3) corporate profits. These are not pillars, they are outcomes of the core pillar, wage earners making enough to buy the economy's output.

As the statistics often cited here show, the purchasing power of wages has been declining for almost 50 years, since the mid-1970s. This means the workforce's surplus earnings have bought less and less of the economy's output.


There are three ways to fill the widening gap that's opened between what the workforce has to spend as surplus earnings and the vast output of the economy:

1. Government distributed money. The government distributes "free money" to the workforce via subsidies, tax cuts and credits, or direct cash disbursements.

2. Cheap abundant credit. The cost of credit is lowered to near-zero and credit is made available to virtually the entire workforce so workers can borrow money to buy goods and services they cannot afford to buy from surplus earnings. If auto loans are 1.9%, the interest is a trivial sum annually.

3. Asset bubbles. Boost the value of assets via monetary policies to generate unearned "wealth" that can be spent (by either borrowing against the newfound wealth or by selling assets). This expansion of "free money" also generates the "wealth effect," the feel-good high of feeling richer, which increases the confidence and desire to spend more money.

There are intrinsic, unbreachable limits to each of these solutions.

1. The government either "prints" or borrows the money it distributes to the workforce. Over time, low interest rates are unsustainable, despite claims to the contrary, and the interest paid on the state's vast borrowing consumes so much of the state's revenues that it starts limiting how much the government can spend. Once state spending stagnates or declines, this pillar breaks and the economy crumbles into recession/depression.

In other words, depending on the government to fill the gap between wages and the economy's output is a self-liquidating system.

2. The expansion of credit leads to defaults and bankruptcies. Relying on the ceaseless expansion of credit based on the declining purchasing power of wages is also a self-liquidating system, as the number of marginal borrowers steadily increases, as does the volume of marginal loans issued by lenders. Marginal borrowers default, triggering losses that push lenders into bankruptcy. This is a self-reinforcing cycle, as the economy rolls over into recession as credit contracts. More workers lose their jobs and default, more loans become uncollectible, and so on.

3. Asset bubbles concentrate the newfound wealth in the top 10%, exacerbating wealth-income inequality and pushing those left behind to gamble in an increasingly speculative financial sector as the only available means of getting ahead. Speculation is also a self-liquidating system as risky bets eventually go bad and the losses trigger a self-reinforcing feedback of selling assets to raise cash which then pushes valuations lower, triggering more selling, and so on.

All three of these pillars propping up the economy are self-liquidating systems, and they're all buckling. Federal borrowing is pushing up against the limits posed by the interest payments on soaring debt. Credit costs are rising and cannot return to near-zero due to inflationary forces. All asset bubbles eventually pop, and the higher they ascend, the more devastating the collapse.

Wages' share of the economy has been in structural decline since 1975:


https://www.oftwominds.com/photos202...share4-24a.png


Federal debt: and no, we can't "grow our way out of debt" by inflating asset bubbles and subsidizing consumer spending with federal debt:

https://www.oftwominds.com/photos202...-debt6-24a.png

Total debt, public and private: the acme of a self-liquidating system:

https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2024/TCMDO6-24a.png

The pillars of consumer credit and federal borrowing are reaching intrinsic breaking points, and so everything is now depending on the asset bubbles in housing and stocks to keep inflating phantom wealth at rates high enough to support more borrowing and spending.

The problem is all asset bubbles pop, despite claims that "this is a new era." That was widely held in March 2000, too, just before the dot-com bubble burst and the Nasdaq fell 80%.


https://www.oftwominds.com/photos202...om-bubble2.png

All three pillars propping up workforce spending are cracking. Plan accordingly.

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Today is the first day of the rest of our lives so along that line of thought, the first thing that I will address in my morning thoughts is an email that I received yesterday from one of our "piphunting" Forex Factory traders.

My real name is Benjamin however some here post under the names they choose to be seen as here so unless I have permission from them I always use the name that is shown on Forex Factory.

Now to the email which allows me to answer the questions and comments made to me.

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves are not an EDGE. However, using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constantly profitable Forex Traders, which I have named, The 5% Club needs to have. Of course, in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing its value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However, after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or European banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars to trade with?

Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which include all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course, my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 9 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason for an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always, I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.


Benjaminis BRUCE WARREN MARGOLESE

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://mishtalk.com/economics/canad...will-collapse/

Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Resigns, Government Will Collapse
December 16, 2024

1:43 pm
Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Resigns, Government Will Collapse

Economics
It’s the end of the line one way or another for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He won’t survive this.


https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1
Trudeau’s Top Lieutenant Resigns Over Differences on Trump
The Washington Post reports Trudeau’s Top Lieutenant Resigns Over Differences on Trump

Justin Trudeau’s chief lieutenant throughout his tenure as Canada’s prime minister resigned from his cabinet on Monday, citing differences over how to confront President-elect Donald Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism, threatened tariffs and a possible trade war.

The abrupt resignation of Chrystia Freeland, who served the past four years as both finance minister and deputy prime minister, is the latest blow to the embattled Trudeau, whose popularity has nosedived over the past year. If federal elections were held today, polls project a wipeout for his Liberal Party.

In her resignation letter, posted on Freeland’s X account Monday morning, shortly before she was scheduled to deliver a fall fiscal and economic update to Parliament, Freeland said Trudeau told her that he no longer wanted her to serve as his finance minister and offered her another cabinet role.

“Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet,” she said. “To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it.”

Freeland — a former journalist whom Trudeau named foreign minister in 2017 as part of a cabinet shuffle designed to prepare the government for the first Trump administration — said that for several weeks, she and Trudeau had been “at odds about the best path forward for Canada,” including on how best to respond to the “grave challenge” posed by the U.S. president-elect’s threatened tariffs of 25 percent on Canadian imports. Canada sends three-quarters of its exports to the United States, and economists project that such levies could plunge Canada into a recession.

“We need to take that threat extremely seriously,” Freeland said in her statement. “That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.”

Several lawmakers on Monday appeared shocked by the resignation.
Freeland’s resignation injected fresh turmoil into Trudeau’s government. Several cabinet ministers have stepped down from their roles in recent weeks, saying that they do not plan to run in federal elections that must take place by next October. Housing Minister Sean Fraser also announced his resignation on Monday.

But few cabinet ministers have wielded as much influence or power in Trudeau’s government as Freeland, whom he entrusted with so many portfolios that commentators here nicknamed her the “Minister of Everything.” Some considered her Trudeau’s heir apparent.

She played a key role in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement during the first Trump administration, drawing the ire of the then president — “we don’t like their representative very much,” Trump once said of her — but earning the respect of then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer.

Finance Minister Shocks Canada by Quitting
Bloomberg Reports Finance Minister Shocks Canada by Quitting Amid Rift Over Fiscal Policy and Trump
Freeland has been the most powerful person serving under Trudeau for years and also held the title of deputy prime minister. After Donald Trump won the US presidential election, the prime minister appointed her to lead a cabinet group developing a strategy on how to respond to US policies.
She announced her exit in a social media post on Monday morning, saying in a letter to the prime minister that the two are “at odds about the best path forward for Canada.” She released it just hours before she was due to deliver a fiscal and economic update in parliament.


Trudeau has yet to name a replacement, but the Finance Department announced on Tuesday afternoon that the fiscal update would proceed. It was expected to be unveiled at approximately 4 p.m. Ottawa time, though it was not immediately clear who would introduce it in the House of Commons.
The Canadian dollar fell as low as C$1.4271 per US dollar, while bond yields jumped, taking the benchmark two-year note to 3.05% as of 11:58 a.m. Ottawa time. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for an election.

“This is a serious moment. It’s time for the government’s mandate to come to an end. This cannot go on,” Poilievre said.
The sudden departure of one of Trudeau’s most loyal ministers — someone who has held senior cabinet posts during the entire nine years of this government — is a staggering blow for a prime minister who has lost several senior officials in recent months. His Liberal Party is trailing the Conservative Party by about 20 points in recent public opinion polls, with an election due next year.

Freeland’s resignation letter talked about Trump’s “aggressive economic nationalism,” including his threat to impose 25% tariffs against goods from Canada and Mexico — a move that would be extremely harmful to Canada’s economy.

“Our country today faces a grave challenge,” Freeland wrote. “We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.”

The phrase “political gimmicks” is likely a reference to the government’s announcement last month that it plans to implement a two-month sales-tax holiday on certain items, such as toys and Christmas trees, and send C$250 checks to millions of Canadians.

Canadian Polls

https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1
CTVNews reports Conservatives Still in Majority Territory
Nearly three weeks after the Liberals first announced their “tax break for all Canadians,” Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain in comfortable majority territory, according to the latest ballot tracking by Nanos Research. It shows the Conservatives at 42 percent nationally, while the Liberals and the NDP are within the margin of error of each other at 23 percent and 21 percent, respectively.

The Liberals introduced their economic measures “thinking maybe it would change the numbers; however, the reality is that the Liberals have tried everything,” Nik Nanos, CTV News pollster and Nanos Research Chair said on the latest episode of Trend Line. “This is the latest thing and it’s not working, and Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are just hammering away (at the Liberals) over and over again and probably just can’t wait for an election.”
If an election were to be held today, those projections show Poilievre would become prime minister with a majority Conservative government.

Five Reasons Why I’m Not Taking 25 Percent Tariffs Seriously

1. For starters, tariffs would tend to strengthen the US dollar over the Canadian dollar. This would make US exports to Canada more expensive.
2. Second, much US framing lumber comes from Canada. Tariffs would increase the cost of building a home in the US.
3. Third, how much Fentanyl is coming into the US from Canada? More likely it’s the other way around.
4. Fourth, Canada is an ally and the United States’ third-largest trading partner. It cannot do the US a damn bit of good to harm it’s third-largest trading partner.
5. Fifth, USMCA is a signed deal. It would take an act of Congress to break the deal. Trump could act alone, but that would damage faith in making any deals with the US.

Canada may be taking Trump seriously on tariff threats, but I am not.

Good Riddance to Trudeau
Canada cannot possibly get rid of Trudeau fast enough. The damage Trudeau has done to Canada is lasting and immense.
Those looking for a 5D chess play vs economic foolishness may wish to consider the possibility that Trump’s real goal all along was to hasten the demise of Trudeau.
If that was Trump’s real game, not tariff nonsense, then Trump may have succeeded.
Regardless, whatever goal Trump really had in mind, getting rid of Trudeau faster was either a success or a side benefit.

Collapse After Collapse

1. The Canadian government won’t survive.
2. The German government collapsed today.
3. The French government collapsed earlier this year.

I did not expect to be writing about two government collapses today. But here we are.

German Government Collapses
Earlier today I commented on The German Government Collapses, Early Elections Are Coming up
Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Monday leaving a deeply fragmented Germany in his wake.

Battle With Trump Looms
The German and French governments are both nonfunctional. This is a disaster on deck for the EU.
Because the US is the fastest-growing economy, the dollar keeps getting stronger.

Currency wars are coming overspending, investments, and trade.