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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,941
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:19pm Jul 25, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting TSK
Hi Auslanco

Trying to understand the momentum indicator and learn from you on this indicator.
As of now,what I saw from the indicator
Daily chart => pointing north
4hrs chart => pointing south
1hr chart => pointing north

Is this correct???
How do you conclude price is going south?

Thanks!

TSK
spot on TSK...

it' also depends on the strength of the pointing.. If you can see...

4hr= strong bent pointing downwards and below 50 line= srtong bearish signal in the next 4hrs
Daily= weak pointing upwards but below 50 line= daily is very much bearish but can have upwards spikes today.
1hr= above 50 and a strong point towards up= momentum is very strong in the next 1hour towards up

when daily and 4hr and 1 hr has a strong point towards downand below 50 line.. thats when the bearish 100 to 200 pips shoots occurs.

In this case we already have a good reading from 4hr (bullish) Daily Bearish but waek, when the 1 hr momentum turn bearish and below 50 line thats when the market start coming down.
  • #9,942
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:23pm Jul 25, 2007 7:23pm
What setting do you use on momentum indicator?
  • #9,943
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:24pm Jul 25, 2007 7:24pm
everyone who uses the VT momentum indicator: please be careful > momentum indicator gives a accurate reading when the market is volatile and trading in big volumes. Otherwise it tends to give lots of false signals.
  • #9,944
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:25pm Jul 25, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting BenQ
What setting do you use on momentum indicator?
10 close on all time frames... but you can experiment with other settings ,,, 10 C works for me..
  • #9,945
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:37pm Jul 25, 2007 7:37pm
what is price target before heading south

Also I was looking at daily and weekly and daily seems to be going up but weekly is clearly going down so I would favor it going down what does everyone think
  • #9,946
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:39pm Jul 25, 2007 7:39pm
Guys we will be making a news trade call for GBP/USD
6 GMT : (UK) nationwide
12.30 GMT: (US)Durable goods
14GMT: (US)New home sales

If you interested, to tarde(on demo) those pre news calls please come to this thread 15 mins before the event as I will be calling the trade 10 mins before the news.
Yesterady our profit target of 40 pips reached on GBP/USD from the news event.
  • #9,947
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:41pm Jul 25, 2007 7:41pm
Quoting auslanco
spot on TSK...

it' also depends on the strength of the pointing.. If you can see...

4hr= strong bent pointing downwards and below 50 line= srtong bearish signal in the next 4hrs
Daily= weak pointing upwards but below 50 line= daily is very much bearish but can have upwards spikes today.
1hr= above 50 and a strong point towards up= momentum is very strong in the next 1hour towards up

when daily and 4hr and 1 hr has a strong point towards downand below 50 line.. thats when the bearish 100 to 200 pips shoots occurs.

In this case we already have a good reading from 4hr (bullish) Daily Bearish but waek, when the 1 hr momentum turn bearish and below 50 line thats when the market start coming down.
this is on the rsi?
  • #9,948
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:42pm Jul 25, 2007 7:42pm
Quoting PipJunkie
what is price target before heading south

Also I was looking at daily and weekly and daily seems to be going up but weekly is clearly going down so I would favor it going down what does everyone think

althogh the 1 hour momentum is very bullish..looks like the price is failing to rise. I expected the price to rice to 247.90 area..on this hour.

this could mean one of two things..
1) the market is very bearish.
2).the market volume is low.
  • #9,949
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:43pm Jul 25, 2007 7:43pm
Quoting 59fender
this is on the rsi?

Momentum indicator on VT trader
  • #9,950
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:51pm Jul 25, 2007 7:51pm
we may see rangebound untill the UK news release... so this could be another boring asian session .
  • #9,951
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:52pm Jul 25, 2007 7:52pm
The one hour chart and the four hour charts shows signs of R at 2.0550 and S at 2.0482, however without any news it could just trade in this channel for some time period until positive or negitive news hits. Is the housing market and lending enough to tilt a down trend? Is has not so far so what keeps the Cable from getting stronger or the US Dollar from slipping lower? Anyone have any thoughts on these issues?
  • #9,952
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:55pm Jul 25, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting auslanco
Momentum indicator on VT trader
For those who doesn't have VT Trader, try RSI 10 on your MT4. I've observed that the characteristics of both momentum ind. and the RSI to be similar ie. crossing to and from the 0 line.

Wilson.
  • #9,953
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:58pm Jul 25, 2007 7:58pm
Auslanco,

I understand where you are coming from using indicators only but I'm still having a hard time reconciling that with the daily "chart", especially now that the day has closed. I see three distinct bounces off of the uptrend line and the day that just closed is showing a very evident pin bar which many times is an indication of a reversal. It seems to me that until that trend line is broken (around 246.40 at this time) then it would definitely be dangerous to short. Thoughts anybody?

Roland
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  • #9,954
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:02pm Jul 25, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting hydege
The one hour chart and the four hour charts shows signs of R at 2.0550 and S at 2.0482, however without any news it could just trade in this channel for some time period until positive or negitive news hits. Is the housing market and lending enough to tilt a down trend? Is has not so far so what keeps the Cable from getting stronger or the US Dollar from slipping lower? Anyone have any thoughts on these issues?

when looking at the GBP/USD trend it's bearish short term, daily is slowly turning bearish... ...GBP/JPY is bearish as well... it seems to me the market is waiting for some bad news from UK to sell of the GBP. doesnt make sense when you look at the overall fundamentals around the world.... but as they always say... it's that "unknown factor" which moves the market this week.
  • #9,955
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:03pm Jul 25, 2007 8:03pm
Quoting wilson
For those who doesn't have VT Trader, try RSI 10 on your MT4. I've observed that the characteristics of both momentum ind. and the RSI to be similar ie. crossing to and from the 0 line.

Wilson.
Thanks Wilson. Are you referring to the 30 or 50 line on the RSI?

Mike
  • #9,956
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:07pm Jul 25, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting my2buoys
Auslanco,

I understand where you are coming from using indicators only but I'm still having a hard time reconciling that with the daily "chart", especially now that the day has closed. I see three distinct bounces off of the uptrend line and the day that just closed is showing a very evident pin bar which many times is an indication of a reversal. It seems to me that until that trend line is broken (around 246.40 at this time) then it would definitely be dangerous to short. Thoughts anybody?

Roland
I have a buy order 10 pips above the PB.
  • #9,957
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:07pm Jul 25, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting my2buoys
Auslanco,

I understand where you are coming from using indicators only but I'm still having a hard time reconciling that with the daily "chart", especially now that the day has closed. I see three distinct bounces off of the uptrend line and the day that just closed is showing a very evident pin bar which many times is an indication of a reversal. It seems to me that until that trend line is broken (around 246.40 at this time) then it would definitely be dangerous to short. Thoughts anybody?

Roland
you are absoulutly correct... Thats why I asked not to go short untill the price firmly breaks the support level.. if it was broken , the price will shoot down to 244 area or below... so still there are plenty of pips avilable even if you get in below the support level.
  • #9,958
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:09pm Jul 25, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting wilson
For those who doesn't have VT Trader, try RSI 10 on your MT4. I've observed that the characteristics of both momentum ind. and the RSI to be similar ie. crossing to and from the 0 line.

Wilson.
I believe RSI is a lagging indicator..
Momentum is a leading indicator.. that makes a huge difference of the purpose.. correct me if I'm wrong
  • #9,959
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:14pm Jul 25, 2007 8:14pm
Quoting MikeW
Thanks Wilson. Are you referring to the 30 or 50 line on the RSI?

Mike
dang, it's the 50. sorry.
  • #9,960
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:16pm Jul 25, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting auslanco
I believe RSI is a lagging indicator..
Momentum is a leading indicator.. that makes a huge difference of the purpose.. correct me if I'm wrong
I have not really monitored the momentum ind. in VT. Only observed the interactions on the center line compared to RSI.
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