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  • #9,121
  • Dec 6, 2024 9:31am Dec 6, 2024 9:31am
Quoting ahmerjamil
Based on H4, I am marking 1.0537 as nearest support!
& Nearest resistance at 1.0578!
Stop Procrastinating
  • #9,122
  • Dec 6, 2024 10:38am Dec 6, 2024 10:38am
Not sure about this trade 'cause volatilty is going to slow for the weekend

15 min.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2024-12-06_18-36-27.png Size: 60 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,123
  • Dec 6, 2024 11:03am Dec 6, 2024 11:03am
US Unemployment rate came below consensus but NFP surpassed expectations and eurusd traded for some hour above 1.0600 but strong selling orders at 1.0630 triggered a bearish wave of price action that looks to continue as the pair trades below 1.0590 resistance.


I'll have to close for the week, will share more in my tomorrow weekly analysis, have a great rest of the day and happy weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image-showing-the-night-sky-with-fireworks.png Size: 1.1 MB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,124
  • Dec 6, 2024 1:38pm Dec 6, 2024 1:38pm
Rookie Trader Here

How do people use news
What do you DO with it; how do you understand it
How does it relate to technical analysis and other aspects of trading

So far, I've only traded technical analysis and avoid news but I feel like what I'm doing is wrong because if news exists, then why would I ignore it.

I am also NOT profitable(yet)
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,125
  • Dec 6, 2024 2:10pm Dec 6, 2024 2:10pm
Quoting BMR
Rookie Trader Here How do people use news What do you DO with it; how do you understand it How does it relate to technical analysis and other aspects of trading So far, I've only traded technical analysis and avoid news but I feel like what I'm doing is wrong because if news exists, then why would I ignore it. I am also NOT profitable(yet)
Ignoring news is valid. It's good to know when releases are happening so you know what times to expect volatility but actually working the news into your reading strategy doesnt make a lot of sense unless your strategy focuses on fundamentals. Those type of guys hold for long periods and play strong and weak currencies against each other. Most of us are playing a much shorter time horizon where fundamentals have less time to affect the course of price action.
  • #9,126
  • Dec 6, 2024 3:59pm Dec 6, 2024 3:59pm
Economic news makes up the fundamental side of trading. A lot of people believe in ignoring fundamentals while focusing on technical. I trade technical but stay aware of the fundamentals to give an overall direction of the cross.

For example, this morning the USD news was reasonably positive, however most of the news was already factored in. The sharp spike up was a liquidity grab and immediately reversed. I was short prior and shorted again close to the top of the spike because fundamentally USD, at the moment, is stronger than the EUR.

I am still currently short, not smart but I believe the economic data will continue to push the cross down until next week.
If you don’t stay aware of the economic calendar then be ready for a lot of surprises.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #9,127
  • Dec 6, 2024 11:08pm Dec 6, 2024 11:08pm
Quoting Nazzcus
For example, this morning the USD news was reasonably positive, however most of the news was already factored in. The sharp spike up was a liquidity grab and immediately reversed. I was short prior and shorted again close to the top of the spike because fundamentally USD, at the moment, is stronger than the EUR. {image}
So the USD news made it spike but since USD is stronger than the EUR, it still went down afterwards
Is that correct?
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,128
  • Dec 7, 2024 4:02am Dec 7, 2024 4:02am
The EUR/USD pair traded in a range of 1.0460 to 1.0629 last week, closing virtually unchanged. Following an initial downward movement, the pair reversed course and is currently trading above the 1.0540 support level.

The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0629. A break above this level could propel the pair towards the 1.0666 - 1.0692 resistance zone. Conversely, a breach of the 1.0540 support level may lead to a decline towards the 1.0448 or 1.0445 support levels.

Happy weekend!


Weekly volatility (range) 105 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0300 (EU1.41b), 1.0600 (EU959.6m), 1.0400 (EU893m) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US CPI, ECB Deposit Rate, US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2024-12-07_11-03-39.png Size: 100 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,129
  • Dec 7, 2024 4:05am Dec 7, 2024 4:05am
Quoting BMR
Rookie Trader Here How do people use news What do you DO with it; how do you understand it How does it relate to technical analysis and other aspects of trading So far, I've only traded technical analysis and avoid news but I feel like what I'm doing is wrong because if news exists, then why would I ignore it. I am also NOT profitable(yet)
I use technical analysis and may take trades on news or not depending my personal view and how I can handle price according my rules.

You should try on demo all aspects of trading (scalping, trading on news & etc.) see what you do and decide your style later using real money.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,130
  • Dec 7, 2024 6:09am Dec 7, 2024 6:09am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote}You should try on demo all aspects of trading (scalping, trading on news & etc.) see what you do and decide your style later using real money.
So I can decide to trade while COMPLETELY disregarding news (I mean avoiding it: not trading NFP) and still have a strategy that's not handicapped in a way?
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,131
  • Dec 7, 2024 12:51pm Dec 7, 2024 12:51pm
Quoting BMR
{quote} So the USD news made it spike but since USD is stronger than the EUR, it still went down afterwards Is that correct?
No. The institutional traders made it spike to fill liquidity. Run the price up to take out orders and stops then short large volumes.
In this situation if the news had been very negative you would most likely have seen the opposite happen.

Quoting BMR
{quote} So I can decide to trade while COMPLETELY disregarding news (I mean avoiding it: not trading NFP) and still have a strategy that's not handicapped in a way?
The only way to avoid it completely is to be out of the market before the news and wait until after the news releases and the volatility settles down, then enter. However, you miss most of the trading time because the news is released throughout the day.

“In My Opinion”, you cannot be successful without factoring in some portion of the fundamental data. You cant Completely disreguard it. Remember technicals are lagging indicators, other than supply and demand. The fundamental data drives the technicals not the other way around.
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #9,132
  • Dec 7, 2024 1:38pm Dec 7, 2024 1:38pm
Quoting Nazzcus
{quote} The fundamental data drives the technicals not the other way around.
That is true, but not all news categories or news from certain regions will have that much of an effect on the market.

So should I focus only on the high impact news like NFP and speeches or should I focus on less impactful news too?
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,133
  • Dec 7, 2024 4:55pm Dec 7, 2024 4:55pm
Quoting BMR
{quote} That is true, but not all news categories or news from certain regions will have that much of an effect on the market. So should I focus only on the high impact news like NFP and speeches or should I focus on less impactful news too?
That’s hard to answer without getting a lot deeper than you probably want to go. High impact usually makes an effect, the intensity is variable. DO NOT trade news as speculation. Psychology plays in here. Often times there is a psychological desire by traders to move a cross a certain direction despite fundamental data. Retail traders are watching trends, support and resistance, MACD. RSI, etc. The underlying psychology will push in the desired direction. We as humans seek patterns and want them to play out. When enough people see the same thing this can push a cross in a direction that it should not be moving.

“Again this is my opinion”. The US economy is strong regardless of the global opinion. You have to remember we are small fish playing in a big ocean that is controlled by “BIG/SMART” money. They control what happens, we can just ride the wave.

Objectively compare EUR to USD and which do you think is the stronger. If you had 10 mil to invest which way would you invest for the next month. Combine this with what you see on the technical. Is the trend down? Is it up? Are you at resistance or support?

Personally, I feel comfortable shorting the pair. I think long term down is the direction. I am not a long term trader, but I still respect the overall fundamental direction of the cross. If I am scalping or swing trading I do it in the direction I feel the fundamental is pushing. If I miss an entry odds are it will come back, who knows when but it always comes back.
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #9,134
  • Dec 7, 2024 6:42pm Dec 7, 2024 6:42pm
Quoting Nazzcus
{quote} Objectively compare EUR to USD and which do you think is the stronger. If you had 10 mil to invest which way would you invest for the next month. Combine this with what you see on the technical. Is the trend down? Is it up? Are you at resistance or support? Personally, I feel comfortable shorting the pair. I think long term down is the direction. I am not a long term trader, but I still respect the overall fundamental direction of the cross. If I am scalping or swing trading I do it in the direction I feel the fundamental is pushing. If...
So I can use fundamental analysis as a way to see the broader trend then base my technical analysis off that so it's "right" (Shorting EURUSD if the Euro becomes weaker)?
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,135
  • Dec 7, 2024 9:37pm Dec 7, 2024 9:37pm
Quoting BMR
{quote} So I can decide to trade while COMPLETELY disregarding news (I mean avoiding it: not trading NFP) and still have a strategy that's not handicapped in a way?
You can but a lot of profit is made when you’re on the right side of the news. Nobody is going to get the news direction right each and every time but when you do you will be smiling.
Consistency is key
  • #9,136
  • Dec 8, 2024 2:02am Dec 8, 2024 2:02am
Quoting BMR
{quote} So I can decide to trade while COMPLETELY disregarding news (I mean avoiding it: not trading NFP) and still have a strategy that's not handicapped in a way?
You can do what you want. Deciding on trading when there are no significant news on the calendar is a more safe way to make money.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9,137
  • Dec 8, 2024 1:24pm Dec 8, 2024 1:24pm
Quoting BMR
{quote} So I can use fundamental analysis as a way to see the broader trend then base my technical analysis off that so it's "right" (Shorting EURUSD if the Euro becomes weaker)?
Yes, establish the fundamental trend then compare with the technical trend if they are in sync that is the safe direction. In My Opinion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB


The long term trend is down, combined with the fundamental trend it points down. The short term trand is a retrace, up. The area we are at is going to be very volitile and we will either break out a bull run or keep pushing down.
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #9,138
  • Dec 8, 2024 2:53pm Dec 8, 2024 2:53pm
Quoting Nazzcus
{quote} Yes, establish the fundamental trend then compare with the technical trend if they are in sync that is the safe direction. In My Opinion. {image} The long term trend is down, combined with the fundamental trend it points down. The short term trand is a retrace, up. The area we are at is going to be very volitile and we will either break out a bull run or keep pushing down.
Thanks for the explanation man but I still have more questions.
What if I'm on a lower timeframe like M1?
I can see you said something about a retrace up, can I take buys as it's is retracing then when it gets to the top and bounces, I start taking sells because I'm assuming that screenshot is a high timeframe
MDG Return Today: na
  • #9,139
  • Dec 8, 2024 4:08pm Dec 8, 2024 4:08pm
Stick to 15m and higher TFs
15m 1hr 4hr 1d 1w work best all together

If you want to scalp 5m and 15m would be best but still need to pay attention to overall direction with higher TFs. Also watch out for news when you scalp as things will go in the opposite direction quickly and when you’re zoomed in like that and not prepared that’s when it hurts the worst.
Consistency is key
  • #9,140
  • Dec 8, 2024 5:14pm Dec 8, 2024 5:14pm
Gap is closed now time to go down
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