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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,841
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:51am Jul 25, 2007 10:51am
Hi guys.. Just had a quick shower before I retire to bed.... 28 hours since my last sleep will watch the 12 EST... whether it will braek the supprort... if not cash in all the short positions on dips. I will also study the price action on ducascopy.. come back to you @ 12EST
  • #9,842
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:05am Jul 25, 2007 11:05am
nope... not next 4 hrs guys... big retracement back to 247.40is area before another try may next 4 hrs starting @ 4EST... that bar gave us a big move yesterday.. but I would not reccommend anyone to take short postions untill it firmly breaks the support. still the market is bearich untill it firmley breaks above 248.30 area..( but dont buy positions @ that level)

safe trading everyone... see you soon
  • #9,843
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:05am Jul 25, 2007 11:05am
Quoting teekee
Hi DR.ich..thanks for the information... i am using live account..my friend told me no pain no game...you will never learn if use the demo account..so i think i need to pay some fee in order to learn ......
that's half true...there are things ( a lot) you cant learn in demo trading..but then again there are things you cud learn in demo trading that may help lower your "pain"...i personally traded demo for 3 months before going live....and i have long way to go still

just my 2 cents...open a demo to test some strategy that your not comftable with before doing it Live...your friend's word has wisdom..but then again ask any succesfull trader and I'm sure that 95% of them all did their demos too....that alone should be reason enough to do it

anyways happy trading and its always a pleasure to meet new bloods like myself here!
"it doesn't come any sharper than this!"
  • #9,844
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:08am Jul 25, 2007 11:08am
Quoting DR.ich
that's half true...there are things ( a lot) you cant learn in demo trading..but then again there are things you cud learn in demo trading that may help lower your "pain"...i personally traded demo for 3 months before going live....and i have long way to go still

just my 2 cents...open a demo to test some strategy that your not comftable with before doing it Live...your friend's word has wisdom..but then again ask any succesfull trader and I'm sure that 95% of them all did their demos too....that alone should be reason enough to do it

anyways happy trading and its always a pleasure to meet new bloods like myself here!
Thanks for the advise DR.ich...i really appreciate it. Nice to have a good trader like you to teach or advise all the new bloods here..
New Forex Trader
  • #9,845
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:10am Jul 25, 2007 11:10am
Quoting auslanco
nope... not next 4 hrs guys... big retracement back to 247.40is area before another try may next 4 hrs starting @ 4EST... that bar gave us a big move yesterday.. but I would not reccommend anyone to take short postions untill it firmly breaks the support. still the market is bearich untill it firmley breaks above 248.30 area..( but dont buy positions @ that level)

safe trading everyone... see you soon
you mean don't cash the short positions?
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,846
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:11am Jul 25, 2007 11:11am
Thank you for all of your assistance. I am new to all of this. I escaped with 100 pips. Where if I was solo, I would have had a small gain or a small lost. Thanks for sharing your knowledge freely and answering all of our questions. Looking forward to reading and observing later on this evening.
  • #9,847
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:12am Jul 25, 2007 11:12am
I think the GBPJPY still have more movement downward before retracement...

I would wait until after the market close at 4:00 pm and the direction of the 4 hour candle...

rgitt05

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  • #9,848
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:13am Jul 25, 2007 11:13am
Quoting Dobin
Will it break 246.50?

any comments?
It is possible, If today we close daily bar below 247.40 area.
Just my personal openion. (with tools of course)
  • #9,849
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:15am Jul 25, 2007 11:15am
Quoting auslanco
nope... not next 4 hrs guys... big retracement back to 247.40is area before another try may next 4 hrs starting @ 4EST... that bar gave us a big move yesterday.. but I would not reccommend anyone to take short postions untill it firmly breaks the support. still the market is bearich untill it firmley breaks above 248.30 area..( but dont buy positions @ that level)

safe trading everyone... see you soon
I totally agree with you, except for one : the daily chart is still a bull trend.
  • #9,850
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:21am Jul 25, 2007 11:21am
Hey guys when Auslanco talking about support on 4Hr chart. What exactly is he talking about FIbs?, Trendline support? EMA, SMA support??

I like to review these past 48 hours and learn what he sees. Also if anyone know some of the inidicators he used.

I think

Momentum= not sure on parameters
RSI= 14 20/80 line
ADX= ?
  • #9,851
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:21am Jul 25, 2007 11:21am
look... pricce has been going down... but at the same time... long positions are increasing... it's like a divergence... i think price should go up soon....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,852
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:32am Jul 25, 2007 11:32am
Quoting emda
look... pricce has been going down... but at the same time... long positions are increasing... it's like a divergence... i think price should go up soon....
Thanks, this is good to know.
  • #9,853
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:37am Jul 25, 2007 11:37am
I wonder if the unwinding of the carry trades have anything to do with the decrease value of gold...

Maybe the market is getting ready for a rebound after the housing earnings later...

rgitt05
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  • #9,854
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:41am Jul 25, 2007 11:41am
That's a nice tool. Do you have to have an account at Oanda to get it?

Quoting emda
look... pricce has been going down... but at the same time... long positions are increasing... it's like a divergence... i think price should go up soon....
  • #9,855
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:48am Jul 25, 2007 11:48am
The dollar index is part of the reason the market is having the jiggers..

I did read on FF that if the USDX breaks below 80 it might trigger USD to spiral down.



Hopefully, the market have some good earnings to help support the market direction..
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  • #9,856
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:58am Jul 25, 2007 11:58am
I feel we may be able to set the shorts back again for 245, today.
Still keep watching it, until market closed.
  • #9,857
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:59am Jul 25, 2007 11:59am
Quoting emda
look... pricce has been going down... but at the same time... long positions are increasing... it's like a divergence... i think price should go up soon....
the way i see it this chart only shows the ratio of long vs shorts...it doesn't say if the longs opened are still active or have been stopped out...

the only thing certain is that there are a lot of trades for GJ that end up losing or are losing (if position still opened) because of the price drop...

now if we can find a chart that shows the ratio of "active" long short ratios..then that would be a tool to gauge if the buying pressure is building up to move the price up....

stooped out longs cant help to push the price up...

just my 2 cents
"it doesn't come any sharper than this!"
  • #9,858
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:11pm Jul 25, 2007 12:11pm
According to this figure, it is 75% longs right now.

http://www.page88.co.za/cr/sentiment.shtml
  • #9,859
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:17pm Jul 25, 2007 12:17pm
Long again at 246.57 despite disturbingly persistent selling. If this bear madness falls through we could be in for a 400 pip crash, but theres nothing indicating this on the strong yen cross. The worst that can happen imho is we follow the uj trail and end up in a downward channel, it all depends on the gu recovery.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #9,860
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:27pm Jul 25, 2007 12:27pm
goodness that "A" guy is gone.

what a mind job.. him.
i got to give you guys the props for playing up to that for this long.

truly amazing performance on all of you.
you guys get the academy award. made it look real too.

i mean.. "short GJ".. ? come on..
i mean.. really..
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
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