The 5ers Project - Scaling all the way up

How can you have an "edge," if the market’s random?



And all the world's major financial institutions, and all those hugely successful experts interviewed by Jack Schwager in his Market Wizards books, who say it isn't random at all: are all of them mistaken?!

I beleive Mark Douglas is right in his book Trading In The Zone. In that book, chapter 7, he talks about thinking in Probabilities. He Talks about Random Outcome, Consistent Results. I would request you to read through that chapter alone.

Imagine a coin flip. The result of each flip is strictly speaking random. However, over many flips, the result is constant.

I do not want to go into the Random Walk Theory, this has been well discussed by academics. I beleive each trade is random. Anything can happen. Expecting a specific trade to be a winner is the surest way to be a disappointed trader.

When I talk of enough data, I mean, years of backtesting to see that my system will do well. like flipping a coin, i cannot know the result of each trade, but over a number of trades, i can expect some form of outcome.

still holding GU from yesterday.

Im net Long UJ