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  • #119,621
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:03am Nov 30, 2024 5:03am
Bitcoin broke support ..So if it runs to 74.x entry it may drop.
1 adr is 162X
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  • #119,622
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:07am Nov 30, 2024 5:07am
Quoting gatorinla
Bitcoin broke support ..So if it runs to 74.x entry it may drop. 1 adr is 162X {image}
93,663.xx see chart. If it's to be a down day, the risk is small compared to reward.
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  • #119,623
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:10am Nov 30, 2024 5:10am
1 min chart.. Lets see if it catches 96.474.92/96,492.39
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  • #119,624
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:18am Nov 30, 2024 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
1 min chart.. Lets see if it catches 96.474.92/96,492.39 {image}
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It does have a tiny bear wedge shape
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  • #119,625
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:30am Nov 30, 2024 5:30am
Lets see where it goes now.
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  • #119,626
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:40am Nov 30, 2024 5:40am
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see where it goes now. {image}
It hit the entry point.. then broke the 1 min R. If it goes below the entry point, it may be bearish. It did that earlier and has now returned. There is a 5 min R on the chart. There is a little logic in the entry. R is just where it stopped before. The main point being odds. If the entry is right even less than 50/50. The reward can may it a good trade. The first drop was a decent Reward if it was closed. This one would be less reward. But ay any point the risk can be lessened by just moving the stop. In that case the reward multiple rises. Just 1 adr is just average. All depends on the entry in any case


The original trade was stopped out. But it also went to 18x first. It was a good trade.
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  • #119,627
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:51am Nov 30, 2024 5:51am
This 5 min trade even being more pips is not even 18X. Using the risk to reward at adr
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  • #119,628
  • Nov 30, 2024 5:58am Nov 30, 2024 5:58am
Quoting gatorinla
This 5 min trade even being more pips is not even 18X. Using the risk to reward at adr {image}
Now it's 30 to 1. If I have the right direction, and adr works out. Well before the 30 I can fade some. The risk is less now than the previous chart. Since its tighter.
Instead of widening stops like most do. I have tightened stops. I want an early stop out. If I'm wrong
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  • #119,629
  • Nov 30, 2024 6:03am Nov 30, 2024 6:03am
I can close this trade 1 to 1 now if I chose. The 1h closed below the entry.
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  • #119,630
  • Nov 30, 2024 6:12am Nov 30, 2024 6:12am
I may be stopped soon, or not. Its at the point of either way. The 1h close favored me
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  • #119,631
  • Nov 30, 2024 6:29am Nov 30, 2024 6:29am
Quoting gatorinla
I may be stopped soon, or not. Its at the point of either way. The 1h close favored me {image}
Price is above the entry. The bull side. The spread at normal for IC is about 20$. I have to be choosy. If the price falls below that level, it may drop.
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  • #119,632
  • Nov 30, 2024 7:36am Nov 30, 2024 7:36am
According to empirical observations, there is an 80% chance that the price will trade within the High ADR and Low ADR levels during each trading day. And only with a probability of 20% the price will go beyond these levels.
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  • #119,633
  • Nov 30, 2024 7:46am Nov 30, 2024 7:46am
Quoting gatorinla
According to empirical observations, there is an 80% chance that the price will trade within the High ADR and Low ADR levels during each trading day. And only with a probability of 20% the price will go beyond these levels.
If the next h closes below that level.. There is a decent chance it will fall. R/R wise its not a bad risk
There was a shooting star at the 4h top. With another fall to the left, above the week average range.
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  • #119,634
  • Nov 30, 2024 7:56am Nov 30, 2024 7:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the next h closes below that level.. There is a decent chance it will fall. R/R wise its not a bad risk There was a shooting star at the 4h top. With another fall to the left, above the week average range. {image}
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  • #119,635
  • Nov 30, 2024 8:05am Nov 30, 2024 8:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
It did miss.. But it was very close. On different brokers you get prices way off.. So make of that what you want. It did put out the effort. I dont know if its accurate
It closed on the bull side. But that dont change the bearish shooting star with price below it. It dont change the week range reached.
Below 96,474 it may fall to adr. Above 96,474 may run to upper wk, or adr
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  • #119,636
  • Nov 30, 2024 8:42am Nov 30, 2024 8:42am
ADR North if that low held. The week range is less. X
ADR is above 100K North
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  • #119,637
  • Nov 30, 2024 8:48am Nov 30, 2024 8:48am
Quoting gatorinla
ADR North if that low held. The week range is less. X ADR is above 100K North {image}
ADR South off the 30 min high.. If I had to chose, that 100k may not be ready.
PA is also having problems chosen
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  • #119,638
  • Nov 30, 2024 10:19am Nov 30, 2024 10:19am
I screwed up earlier.. I had it set for Friday,, Today is Saturday. Any way. if it to drop to adr.
ADR is 55X
Stop is 1x, plus spread.
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  • #119,639
  • Edited 10:37am Nov 30, 2024 10:26am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
I screwed up earlier.. I had it set for Friday,, Today is Saturday. Any way. if it to drop to adr. ADR is 55X Stop is 1x, plus spread. {image}
PA went above that yellow line. But couldn't close above it 1h. I will give drop a vote.
When the target for adr is 55. Its ok to be wrong. Being right 3 out of 55 times is still winning. But in this case 80% to adr. Gives this about a 40% shot. 96,875 is between the upper and lower adr. PA is below that center
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  • #119,640
  • Nov 30, 2024 10:40am Nov 30, 2024 10:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA went above that yellow line. But couldn't close above it 1h. I will give drop a vote. When the target for adr is 55. Its ok to be wrong. Being right 3 out of 55 times is still winning. But in this case 80% to adr. Gives this about a 40% shot. 96,875 is between the upper and lower adr. PA is below that center {image}
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