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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,601
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:44am Jul 25, 2007 4:44am
The suspense is killing me, i'm going horizontal for a few if you know what i'm saying. See you in NYC.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #9,602
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:45am Jul 25, 2007 4:45am
Quoting PipJunkie
auslanco

just woundering what you think about the housing data it is expected to be bad for the usd do you think there will be any affect or will it just be ignored. I would think it would push the GBP/USD up which would bring the GBP/JPY up with it. Just woundering your thoughts

Subprime is the whole reason for thedowntrend....

Subprime= US economy slowdown= retail Japaneese retail companies loose sales= retail companies exchanging there foreign cash reserves to JPY..
  • #9,603
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:46am Jul 25, 2007 4:46am
my dollar/yen trade looks good but the pound /yen appears bearish hmm
  • #9,604
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:46am Jul 25, 2007 4:46am
Quoting PipJunkie
auslanco

just woundering what you think about the housing data it is expected to be bad for the usd do you think there will be any affect or will it just be ignored. I would think it would push the GBP/USD up which would bring the GBP/JPY up with it. Just woundering your thoughts
Its just math.

G/U x U/J = G/J USD going up or down wouldn't matter in the G/J pair.

Wouldn't it just cancel each other out?
  • #9,605
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:57am Jul 25, 2007 4:57am
Actually it's the holiday season coming next month in Japan.
Japanese housewives are cashing in their carry trades and go shopping for brand names!! Woman power!

dailyfx also says august is mostly sell for U/J for the past few years
  • #9,606
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:00am Jul 25, 2007 5:00am
That 100+ pip retracement may happen now... so be cautious
  • #9,607
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:00am Jul 25, 2007 5:00am
big retracement
  • #9,608
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:02am Jul 25, 2007 5:02am
Quoting MikeW
Thanks aus. My MM can handle a 100 pip loss so I'll ride it further towards the 245 mark. I'm a bit concerned of the price bouncing off the 4hour 200ma. If it does bounce do you see this as only a temporary setback or would that be a sign to exit?

regards

Mike
I would advise you to cash the postion and get a better entry on the top
  • #9,609
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:02am Jul 25, 2007 5:02am
Quoting brainless
Actually it's the holiday season coming next month in Japan.
Japanese housewives are cashing in their carry trades and go shopping for brand names!! Woman power!

dailyfx also says august is mostly sell for U/J for the past few years
it was 8 out of the last 10 years before last year i remember that last year it went up a lot though in august that is not to say it wont resume to go up this year. My analysis shows that it will have a downward wick before coming up but may not finish in time to end the month of august up
  • #9,610
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:07am Jul 25, 2007 5:07am
retracemnt up around to 247.50ish area
  • #9,611
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:09am Jul 25, 2007 5:09am
Quoting goodthings
Not Elliot Wave but there is a mid week reversal pattern the the gbpjpy.
i am waiting to buy more but at the same time, may also (considering) to short it and target your 4hr 200 sma....
........... have nothing to say..........
  • #9,612
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:09am Jul 25, 2007 5:09am
Quoting auslanco
I would advise you to cash the postion and get a better entry on the top
Thanks auslanco, just closed.

Mike
  • #9,613
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:11am Jul 25, 2007 5:11am
NP
  • #9,614
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:15am Jul 25, 2007 5:15am
hi..

Looking at the weekly chart...the price had hit a very short term trendline and had a major bounce off it..with the close very close to the open of the week on the other 2 occasions
  • #9,615
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:16am Jul 25, 2007 5:16am
Quoting auslanco
retracemnt up around to 247.50ish area
Would you mind sharing what you use to work all this out (the technicals). I appreciate that there is a lot of knowledge on the action/reaction of this pair behind all this which we have to learn ourselves, but you've got me really wanting to know what your technical tools are.

regards

Mike
  • #9,616
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:33am Jul 25, 2007 5:33am
Quoting glenn5t
auslanco

Thanks for that, not really surprised, when you have all the stockmarkets are the world on all time high's and all cross pairs USD at 20 and 25 year highs...Something's got to give.


Glenn
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- NZD/YEN
- AUD/YEN
- GBP/USD
- GBP/YEN
- EUR/USD
- EUR/YEN
- SILVER
- GOLD
- CRUDE OIL
- many commodities
- ALMOST ALL SHARE MARKETS IN THE WORLD

What left?
  • #9,617
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:48am Jul 25, 2007 5:48am
Ok there are one of three things could happen...

1) we will see another attempt to break the 246.50 1 hr before NY start.
2) We will have a range trading untill 12.00 EST and take off like yearsterday after 12.00 EST.
3)new york start will take it down to 245.


@ 7.00 EST or @ 8.00 est we will have a clear direction were market is heading to...
  • #9,618
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:54am Jul 25, 2007 5:54am
Price is just retracing to 4hr 5 SMA fellows... nothing unusual @ all.

247.34= 5 sma
  • #9,619
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:55am Jul 25, 2007 5:55am
Auslanco,

If you see a retracement like this is about to happen, do you put on a trade or do you think it's too risky and just wait for it to finish?

Mike
  • #9,620
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:55am Jul 25, 2007 5:55am
Quoting MikeW
Auslanco,

If you see a retracement like this is about to happen, do you put on a trade or do you think it's too risky and just wait for it to finish?

Mike

I never trade against the trend..
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