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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,541
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:39am Jul 25, 2007 2:39am
sarama001

Its trying to pass the support at 247.03..

Glenn
  • #9,542
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:40am Jul 25, 2007 2:40am
Quoting auslanco
average age of a hedge fund manager in London is 36
Average age of a hedge fund manager in New york is 51
All this london cowboys loves to stand out from the rest...
this happens all the time right after, US and Japan starts the trend.
But after sometime the london boys give up
Interesting observation....
  • #9,543
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:44am Jul 25, 2007 2:44am
07:25 USD/JPY: Choppy Asian Session Extends Into Europe London, July 25. Reports of very good two-way business in USD/JPY overnight with speculative plays dominating while corporate activity was dulled by the volatility. Hedge funds were again involved in heavy carry trade lightening although the AUD and NZD kept the higher yield flag flying. We are hearing that big plays back into the Yen and out of Brazil and Mexico kept the Japanese unit on the boil.
USD/JPY slipped to 119.78 lows as the touted 120.00 bids failed to materialize but the sub-1.20 stops did. One large sell stop was rumoured to have been tripped on the 119.90 break with a Canadian name in the frame.
EUR/JPY was equally choppy with a 166.35 to 165.35 range traded through Asia. Again speculative accounts were busy and stops again figured prominently. A large swathe of stale EUR longs have reportedly been cleared away, which could allow the cross room to climb again. However, with the Dollar struggling, especially following the 224-point slump in the Dow, the carry trade unwind is not having the last word. Fears of a larger carry shake out remain but for now we are mainly seeing the impact from U.S credit woes.
USD/JPY looks like 119.60 to 120.30 with the 120.00 level likely to pivot price early on. Look to key U.S housing data at 14:00 GMT, which takes on greater significance given the current credit woes. [email protected]
  • #9,544
  • Edited 2:52am Jul 25, 2007 2:48am | Edited 2:52am
Hi Auslanco

Many thanks for your sharing.
May you kindly advise the MA setting in your daily and 4hrs chart? How do you interpret them???
How do you determine 121.20 is bullish for USDJPY?

Thanks!
  • #9,545
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:49am Jul 25, 2007 2:49am
Quoting bluerose
07:25 USD/JPY: Choppy Asian Session Extends Into Europe London, July 25. Reports of very good two-way business in USD/JPY overnight with speculative plays dominating while corporate activity was dulled by the volatility. Hedge funds were again involved in heavy carry trade lightening although the AUD and NZD kept the higher yield flag flying. We are hearing that big plays back into the Yen and out of Brazil and Mexico kept the Japanese unit on the boil.
USD/JPY slipped to 119.78 lows as the touted 120.00 bids failed to materialize but the sub-1.20 stops did. One large sell stop was rumoured to have been tripped on the 119.90 break with a Canadian name in the frame.
EUR/JPY was equally choppy with a 166.35 to 165.35 range traded through Asia. Again speculative accounts were busy and stops again figured prominently. A large swathe of stale EUR longs have reportedly been cleared away, which could allow the cross room to climb again. However, with the Dollar struggling, especially following the 224-point slump in the Dow, the carry trade unwind is not having the last word. Fears of a larger carry shake out remain but for now we are mainly seeing the impact from U.S credit woes.
USD/JPY looks like 119.60 to 120.30 with the 120.00 level likely to pivot price early on. Look to key U.S housing data at 14:00 GMT, which takes on greater significance given the current credit woes. [email protected]
I can tell you right now, US housing data is going to be BAD.
For, I am also in home investment business.
  • #9,546
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:49am Jul 25, 2007 2:49am
Quoting trader8686
Auslanco,

Do you mind take consideration of my suggestion, at the hit of TL (246.15),
just take some profit, first (just in case)?

Just suggestion, and leave decision to you.

Trader8686
I already cashed half of my lots @ 247.50.. at the very first time when it reached.. I had that TP level set at that price from monday to cover my losses from the weekend trading. I only have half left from my initial position... Thanks for your suggestion...
  • #9,547
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:54am Jul 25, 2007 2:54am
Wow, UJ is being very stubborn right now you guys seeing this?
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #9,548
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:56am Jul 25, 2007 2:56am
I fib the highest and lowest level from Asian time and determine the pair to drop anywhere in the 244 range if the news is disappointing..

Look at the chart below..

rgitt05
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY fib setup.jpg Size: 59 KB
[
  • #9,549
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:57am Jul 25, 2007 2:57am
Quoting auslanco
did you guys know I was awake from 8PM yesterday to now my time is 2.30 pm today on this thread....
i really appreciate it.. make a nice chunck today cause of u
thanks a bunch
  • #9,550
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:58am Jul 25, 2007 2:58am
Quoting glenn5t
iam in Auckland, just across the ditch.

Glenn
Nice, used to go to mission bay a lot when we where in NZ
  • #9,551
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:00am Jul 25, 2007 3:00am
thanks
  • #9,552
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:01am Jul 25, 2007 3:01am
Originally Posted by auslanco http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
did you guys know I was awake from 8PM yesterday to now my time is 2.30 pm today on this thread....

thats the dedication we need from everyone
  • #9,553
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:03am Jul 25, 2007 3:03am
Quoting auslanco
Thanks BR....I truly enjoyed your company here BR... hope to see you again here soon...
Thank you. The pleasure is mine too. I really like this thread. You and Monarch have upgraded tremendously on its quality. l will hang around this thread as long as I trade GBPJPY. This is the best thread in terms of intellectual prowess and quality entertaintment (YouTube) introduced by you and Monarch . All the best, BR.
  • #9,554
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:03am Jul 25, 2007 3:03am
Ok guys .. be little careful... didnt get a good reading from the new 4hr bar... will see how far it will go down.. most probably it will be a rangebound between 247.90 - 246.35.. untill the newyork starts.. if it breaks 246.50... it will storm down to 245 and below... but the trend is very much bearish...
  • #9,555
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:06am Jul 25, 2007 3:06am
BaasHarm!

Yes a very nice place to be on a sunny day, sadly we have storm after storm for the last few weeks....

Glenn
  • #9,556
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:06am Jul 25, 2007 3:06am
Hi.. tot alot ppl will carry trade yen so y was yen becoming so strong suddenly?
  • #9,557
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:06am Jul 25, 2007 3:06am
If you are overloaded with postions please release them @ a suitable price... cant predict the price for next 4 hours... but it's not going to be bullish unless it shoots up 200 pips which is hilghly unlikely
  • #9,558
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:07am Jul 25, 2007 3:07am
Quoting trader8686
I can tell you right now, US housing data is going to be BAD.
We'll see but I agree it is important now to indicate further direction for the carries.
Good carry news today: Aussie inflation higher than expected and NZ raising rates again, but that will be overshadowed with worries that subprime defaults are spreading throught the US economy. But those yen crosses have been pretty resilient today.
So far the sell off has been one of regular risk aversion, but nowhere near the intensity of the february sell-off. Although that started of slowly too.

Anyways, the 245's are in the cards for today, there's a daily trendline coming in at about 245.50, let's see whether that hold on US housing data.

Still adding longs as we go, next limit at 245.6, but may scalp some shorts as I see a good opportunity.
  • #9,559
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:09am Jul 25, 2007 3:09am
Quoting PipJunkie
Originally Posted by auslanco http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
did you guys know I was awake from 8PM yesterday to now my time is 2.30 pm today on this thread....
Get a life

What do you need the money for if you don't take the time to spend it?

I really appreciate you sharing your insights
  • #9,560
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:10am Jul 25, 2007 3:10am
245 is possible for today.

few long placed at that level. -200 pips is nothing..
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