Fibnacci trading..Are U thinking what i'm thinking?

I just HAVE to post this since it fits the bill so perfectly. Setup before going to bed, Asia does as it's told by my charts, then does the expected bounce as well.

Random market my bum. These charts are not doctored and I used price projection (aren't fibs just that? relations of price..)

And 8 hours later.

As for market being random, I'd have to say its not... For an excellent thesis countering random walk, everyone should look up Mark Fisher and his book The Logical Trader. His thesis work says that if the market is random then out of every time slice (candle) there should be no one candle more significant than all the rest during that day. He found the first 30m of every market open, more often than not, contains the hod or lod for that day. About 28% of the time the first 30m has that trait, therefore the market is not random if that time period is more significant that others.

As for fibs, extensions, retracements, and EW I fully believe its a mixture of natural law and self fufilling prophecy. I am reading a book called The Golden Ratio right now, all about the fib sequence and its history. The properties of .618 as a number and its origins in the fibonanci sequence have implications that reach across just simple % pullback and extensions. I'm speaking about how the .618% ratio and the sequence that generates that fibo number is found in nature in countless places, the configuration of leaves on stems (ratio of turns to leaves), the spiral pattern of sunflower sead heads, the spiral of the nattelus shell. This ratio is all around you, its a fundamental harmonic of nature. Its appearance is compounded by the fact that other traders use these ratios as well.... But the bottom line is price and time DO snap into these fibo levels quite frequently.

As for picking out which fibos are the right ones, the things I have done are to use only the major relations, i.e. .38 .5 and .618 on the retracement side, and 1.0 1.38 1.618 2.0 and 2.618 on the extension side

The most popular i've found are the .618 and 1.618 then the .50 1.0 and 2.0 which are all related to reach other in and inverse/mirror way.....

Then I use only the most obvious turning points, high to low for the range, and extend and retrace from there. I combine a single oscillator, channel lines, and snr and when 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 3 line up you will make $$.

The hardest part is to not make mountains out of mole hills, if the clearly demarked ranges are not there to draw the fibs from then don't over do it trying to see what is there.... being patient is key to wait for the setups that scream in your gut take the trade.

good luck to all
vince

any one has fib historical indicator ?

thanks for your indicator (weekly pivot)
i am looking for indicator can give weekly or daily fibonicci ,has same historical infromation like your indicator the (week pivot) so can you help ?
and also for camerilla indicator ?

Nice discussion going on here. Im not sure how to put this, but somehow or rather there are times when we do see market as being random. We need to note that there are alot of minds scheming against us, i might wanna go short but you decide to go long, and the winner is usually decided on who could carry the heavier weight you multiply this by millions of players in the market, you get a random buzz...

I have been doing something different lately, instead of looking at charts, i have decided to look at price levels to get a 'feel' of trends. Amazingly i found that if we do it long enough, you tend to get in tandem with the market movements...when i look at the price every 30 secs, all i get is a random buzz of price going up and down in the beginning, so i did a look up every 15 minutes, its amazing how you will start to get a feel of the movements, say for example

: 12.00 at 1.3700,
: 12.15 at 1.3710
: 12.30 at 1.3720
: 12.45 at 1.3750
: 01.00 at 1.3735 BUY

Most adept traders have been consistently making good money out of the market is due to the very fact that they have attained and managed to sift out this randomness, thus killing the theory. Still we can't deny that losers are inevitable, the very fact that we can't predict 100% where the price will go the next hour, day or week proves one fact that there is a probability of losing. Unless i have met a trader who has never wrong in any predictions, i believe this theory hold true to a certain extent, or better, show me a trader with an equity curve with no drawdowns a curve as smooth as a trendline.

So i have accepted the fact that market can be random else i'll be a 100% winner but the fact is, in this jungle of randomness , the survivors know when and where to hunt and when to run, the snake in the desert only hunts at night due to their their cold blooded nature thats when the odds are stacked in their favor but that still does not negate the fact that they can't be eaten by the owl.

What also that removes randomness is the very fact that many successful traders have found a way to move the odds to their favor, they have learned to corner that possibility of being caught random acts and if they are caught in one they learned to back off. Which is why you see this people take money off the market almost effortlessly (Jacko), this is because certain setups or should i say attachment to market flows have taught them where the 'chance' is.

Let me give an example say a baby who is just born. Anything that happens to him will occur to him as a random act. Slowly we teach em princinciples, do's and don't, experience etc etc. All this teachings became his armor from accidents, but does not mean that it will save him from accidents. Like trading, we wait for a certain set of procedures to occur, rules that are met before we get into one, so we draw trendlines, fibs, mas, rsi and what not, or else it will just be another random entry. This is what reduces the probability of getting caught in randomness, everyone can say that the market will not gap a 100points tomm but what are its chances, is there still a possibility? Seriously, i think, if markets are not random, there will be no real need for stop loss and risk management since we will never be affected by fluctuations coz we already know somehow or rather price will go to the direction we expect it to, but really, how can we confirm that?

Like seekinglight showed in the above post, he has proved that market is indeed predictable but how many other times are we also proven wrong in our analysis similar to that of what has been posted?

Metaphorically speaking, i see the market like a liquid molecule, where we, the participants are the atoms, we bounce and bang against each other randomly, but when we look from the outside, we see waves flowing seamlessly in its intended direction, with little or no randomness.

Conclude..market is not 100% random and neither it is as predictable, the old guys of the game usually says, "Go with the flow"

regards
jest

sorry for my bad english

i think the best way to trade should be depend on fib
as you can see in this link all the world have the fib in it,
http://www.mcs.surrey.ac.uk/Personal...t.html#Rabbits
also i think to have record for only one year in fib indicator will give you the good idea about the trading using fib, coz it is different from any anther indicators ,
by study the fib will let us creating very good strategy ,
for indicator maybe you can find compantion in between these two indicators to find what we need.

The candlesticks move to a framework that sits behind them, is fractal in nature and based on the Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio. It's called the Absolute Fibonacci Framework.

If you apply a Fib retrospectively to candlesticks in the way that people normally do (everyone in this thread, for instance) you may or may not get accurate information from it, because unless you can see the framework, you don't know which fractal the currency is moving on at the points where you apply it.

Turn the situation around, use the framework that is there already, and you can see where it's going to move to with a higher degree of certainty.

Now that is what I call insight. Thanks a million man.

Can you provide an example consisting of two charts of the wrong and right way to draw fib lines in the manner you are saying?

smalldog2 and SeekingLight: It's nice to see other traders in '' our* '' Fibonacci club as well !

* as in: big dogs, smart money, etc.

Hi Southernmind. I'd love to, but it's a little more complicated than that, and it's best to understand the basics of the whole concept. Showing one chart as 'correct' wouldn't work for you, but I can show you some lovely examples that you will truly understand if I can explain the whole thing properly. I do free webcasts to introduce the idea for anyone who is interested. The next one is on November 6 at 7.00pm PST (I'm in Vancouver). It's not a selling hype thing, just an explanation, but I think you'll be very interested. Just send me a PM with your email so I can send you a GoToMeeting invitation if you are interested. We usually just get four or five people at the intro webcasts, so there's plenty of opportunity to interact.

Here is my 2 cents worth....

At first i was not a big Fib fan but the more i study fib level the more i like it. So now i use fibs mainly for convergence. And i havent been dissappointed yet.

Also fibs give me a good place to put stop losses. I would normally look to enter around 50% level on eur/usd. Then i would place my stop loss a few pips under 61.8% cause i know if 61.8% doesnt hold we might be looking at more than just a correction.

With all of this in place i use also fib extension levels of 123-138% as target take profit points.

If you want more out of fibs then also use fib fans together with fib retracements. Then the fib fans act as support and resistance levels. Have a look at this bit of magic on your charts......

So in conclusion fibs give:
1. Good entry points
2. Good place to pu stop loss
3. Provides support and resistance levels
4. Provide potential take profit targets

Fibonacci works just because a lot of people use it, and this makes the price go up or down. Fibonacci doesn't work because it's a magic thing that appears in Nature. Maybe in sunflowers, maybe in aesthetics, maybe in the human body, maybe in emerging quantum patterns... Not in markets. Fibonacci doesn't make us buy and sell because patterns emerge. WE make Fibonacci appear with our buying and selling.
This is why the most people using it, the better. The simple minded because they think that "the universe is in you", the rest of us because the simple minded gives us the price action we need.

But arentn't 99% of traders losers? By all that self fulfilling theories eeveryone would be rich and you could pick any indicator to do so.


I find it is more something like when you draw the indicator and it fits, you tell yourself it works, but you would never have seen all the instances where it didn't work.
You can draw it on every candle close or high. After X amount of candles it will retrace to some fibo number. The indicator is designed that way that it will work at some point.
Question is how do you profit from it, what is your strategy and how do other people predict your move and counter it.

And then it becomes a useless indicator, like many others

My answer to this is my answer to nearly everything, back test with a massive amount of data using a computer and see if your entries are truly any better than entering randomly.

I use fib a lot in my trading.61 level is a magic level for following the trend.

what traders prefer? Fibonacci retracement trading or extension trading? what is more accurate?