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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,261
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:43pm Jul 24, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting markam
I said it quite a few pages ago, 210-220, by the end of the year.
sorry.. I didnt target you... it was just the vibe on this thread all day today and yesterday...
  • #9,262
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:48pm Jul 24, 2007 4:48pm
Quoting monarch
Well it looks as if the wind blew both you and I together again. LOL

Been a few months, how has it been going?

Still trading the GU?

I have basically decided to just be a follower here on the GJ thread, and there are some real good traders here giving out sound advice. You'll like the results, but as always, we need to be real careful and prepared for every trade we enter.

Glad to see you again

Ken

Note: watching the UJ, looking for a break below the 120.03 and the next area of importance on my charts 119.79.
Thanks Monarch. Yes I am still trading GU.
I am certainly glad to see you again.
Hope to learn still more from you.
Have a nice evening
  • #9,263
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:52pm Jul 24, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting auslanco
It's funny... when the price was going on a yo yo ride around 249 only few people agree with me on a bearish trend ... now it has gone down to 210

Newbie here: Thought this was interesting,

Defaults on Some `Alt A' Loans Surpass Subprime Ones
The following story could have some important ramifications for equty markets and carry trades, as Citibank is reporting that the better quality Alt A loans may defaulting at higher rates then the sub prime sector. If the credit ratings on these better quality bonds are ruduced as ratings for sub primes were, credit spreads will widen and costs for borrowing will increase.

By Jody Shenn
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults on some so-called Alt A mortgages packaged into bonds last year are now outpacing those from subprime loans, according to Citigroup Inc.

The three-month constant default rate for 2006 Alt A hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages is 2.3 percent, compared with 2.2 percent for subprime ARMs, New York-based Citigroup analysts led by Rahul Parulekar wrote in a July 20 report. The figures represent the percentage of balances in a mortgage-bond pool expected to default in the next year based on 90-day trends.

The speed at which Alt A hybrid ARMs are being paid off due to home sales or refinancing has also fallen to about the same level as for subprime ARMs, which typically prepay more slowly, the analysts said. Slower prepayments can make the same rates of defaults more damaging by leaving more of the initial balances outstanding to eat into bond-investor protections.

Full Story: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...3cQ&refer=home
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #9,264
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:52pm Jul 24, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting Dobin
hedge it until gj drops more,then take profit of the short and wait while getting the interests.
That is always an option to cope with the drawdown, but be sure that you approach it as an individual trade supported with proper techies/fundies. Personally, I'll start looking for a hedge araound 30% drawdown. That corresponds ussualy to some where between 1000-2000 pips down move.
  • #9,265
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:53pm Jul 24, 2007 4:53pm
Can someone explain the proper use of a hedge? I gather from Auslanco it should be the same size as the original trade, but should you aim to take profit on it, or just release it when your longs are back in profit or what?

Quoting Dobin
hedge it until gj drops more,then take profit of the short and wait while getting the interests.
  • #9,266
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:56pm Jul 24, 2007 4:56pm
the most difficult thing when doing this is when to exit.
make sure your short have profits and the trend is up

Quoting BaasHarm!
That is always an option to cope with the drawdown, but be sure that you approach it as an individual trade supported with proper techies/fundies. Personally, I'll start looking for a hedge araound 30% drawdown. That corresponds ussualy to some where between 1000-2000 pips down move.
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,267
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:58pm Jul 24, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting highway
Thanks Monarch. Yes I am still trading GU.
I am certainly glad to see you again.
Hope to learn still more from you.
Have a nice evening
Well, we all can learn from each other.

The nice thing is, there are so many different views, strategies, and concepts to learn from.

The question that everyone really wants answered is a 50/50 toss up, and that is, which way to we go from here?

Up or Down, 2 choices, and only one pays out.

I will catch up with everyone during the Asia Session, going to do some back logging for the todays 30 minute analysis.

Good Trading to ALL!

Ken
  • #9,268
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:00pm Jul 24, 2007 5:00pm
This is how I hedge...
I always go with my weekly and monthly trends .
When the daily and 4 hourley changes to the opposite direction I open hedge position same number of lots and release it once the 4 hourley and daily changes back to the same direction on weekly and monthly... No intention of making profits... just to cover the large drawdowns against the monthly and weekly trends... nice,simple and very profitable..
  • #9,269
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:07pm Jul 24, 2007 5:07pm
one question , when opposite direction is happening ,why not just close your early lots and open new lots to catch the profits?
large drawdown also makes a lot of profits.


Quoting auslanco
This is how I hedge...
I always go with my weekly and monthly trends .
When the daily and 4 hourley changes to the opposite direction I open hedge position same number of lots and release it once the 4 hourley and daily changes to the same direction on weekly and monthly... No intention of making profits... just to cover the large drawdowns against the monthly and weekly trends... nice,simple and very profitable..
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,270
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:09pm Jul 24, 2007 5:09pm
also usually have my hedge postion open for 4-8 months... I currently got postion open in march @228 area and recently I opend a hedge position on 11th of this month.. My target is 258 on this trade..
  • #9,271
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:10pm Jul 24, 2007 5:10pm
Quoting monarch
Well, we all can learn from each other.

The nice thing is, there are so many different views, strategies, and concepts to learn from.

The question that everyone really wants answered is a 50/50 toss up, and that is, which way to we go from here?

Up or Down, 2 choices, and only one pays out.

I will catch up with everyone during the Asia Session, going to do some back logging for the todays 30 minute analysis.

Good Trading to ALL!

Ken
Hi Ken, I was off to bed and just popped in when I saw what was happening and thought, I gotta have a piece of that !
So it looks like a long night after a long day, guess it must be 3pm over your way now as its just gone eleven over here.

Andy
  • #9,272
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:10pm Jul 24, 2007 5:10pm
Big correction or normal correction?
when I look back of the GJ histroy, it seems 350-400 drop is a noraml correction. Something like Feb.27 is a big correction with 1300 drop.
For this time, it's already 350 pips drop and I think 247.3 is a support
if it can't break it , it will bounc back just like a normal correction.
what do you guys think?

by the way, Dow dropped 220 pips and in Feb.27, it dropped 400?
if tomorrow, it keeps on dropping, I am afraid it will be a big one and move down at least 800-1000 pips
and in Feb 27, it's also a subprime problem.
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,273
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:11pm Jul 24, 2007 5:11pm
you hedge, you keep paying interests.
Quoting auslanco
also usually have my hedge postion open for 4-8 months... I currently got postion open in march @228 area and recently I opend a hedge position on 11th of this month.. My target is 258 on this trade..
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,274
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:14pm Jul 24, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting Dobin
one question , when opposite direction is happening ,why not just close your early lots and open new lots to catch the profits?
large drawdown also makes a lot of profits.

No... thats why I do trades like today.. It's two different trading methods to diversify my portfolio to minimze the risk. Since I trade only one pair .. i use different methods to minimize the risk. I beleive trading is all about maximum gain with minimum risk..
  • #9,275
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:17pm Jul 24, 2007 5:17pm
Quoting Dobin
you hedge, you keep paying interests.
when you really look at it I hedge only 1/3 of the duration..that means only 1/3 of the duration ...the pair goes against the monthly trend. so i actualy gain from the interest too. thats why you choose a longer time frame like monthly / weekly .
  • #9,276
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:24pm Jul 24, 2007 5:24pm
Thanks! I'll give that a try.


Frank


Quoting Dobin
hedge it until gj drops more,then take profit of the short and wait while getting the interests.
  • #9,277
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:46pm Jul 24, 2007 5:46pm
Becareful, it's not easy to find when to exit.
Quoting frank99
Thanks! I'll give that a try.


Frank
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,278
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:49pm Jul 24, 2007 5:49pm
Has anyone still practising on demo accounts?
I'm testing this news trading method... which I study the interbank chart patterns of GBP/USD of the last 30 mins before the release... I can make the buy or sell call 10 minutes before the release. I study the buying and selling patterns and 4 hr trend on Ducascopy interbank platform. If i can find a strong pattern inline with the 4hr trend then I make the call...Otherwise no trade. I have been testing this since march and it has a 95% win probability upto now. Please only try this with Demo accounts as this is still on it's testing stages. This weeks news events I would like to trade are listed below... If you like to participate on this thread let me know... but you must have a demo account ready..

GMT

Today (25th)- 14.00 existing home sales

Tommorrow-(26th)
12.30- durable goods
14.00- New Home sales

Friday-
12.30- US GDP
  • #9,279
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:57pm Jul 24, 2007 5:57pm
if u think it works, let's know when you are shorting or longing just like this time, we all follow u to make money, especially me!
for this time, I am big loser, I didn't stick to the short when I shorted from 250.13. Afraid of losing and used T/P just brought me a little pips instead of big amount.


Quoting auslanco
Has anyone still practising on demo accounts?
I'm testing this news trading method... which I study the interbank chart patterns of GBP/USD of the last 30 mins before the release... I can make the buy or sell call 10 minutes before the release. I study the buying and selling patterns and 4 hr trend on Ducascopy interbank platform. If i can find a strong pattern inline with the 4hr trend then I make the call...Otherwise no trade. I have been testing this since march and it has a 95% win probability upto now. Please only try this with Demo accounts as this is still on it's testing stages. This weeks news event I would like to trade are listed below... If you like to participate on this thread let me know... but you must have a demo account ready..

GMT

Today (25th)- 14.00 existing home sales

Tommorrow-(26th)
12.30- durable goods
14.00- New Home sales

Friday-
12.30- US GDP
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #9,280
  • Jul 24, 2007 6:03pm Jul 24, 2007 6:03pm
Quoting Dobin
if u think it works, let's know when you are shorting or longing just like this time, we all follow u to make money, especially me!
for this time, I am big loser, I didn't stick to the short when I shorted from 250.13. Afraid of losing and used T/P just brought me a little pips instead of big amount.
Thanks Dobin,
But I dont advise you to trade this on real account... make sure you come to this thread 15 mins before the news release... I will make the call 10 mins before.
Remember... 70% of the time it's no trade.. only if I'm 90%+ sure if the market is going on a certain direction after the release, then I make the call.
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