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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,181
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:25pm Jul 24, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting trader8686
What is that 1st support you refered to?

1 hr bar close below 248.71.
  • #9,182
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:35pm Jul 24, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting BenQ
Auslanco, are you suggesting he should have opened a larger short to hedge his longs?

No ... I would never buy more lots on the hedge position than my loosing position. It has to be the equal amounts of lots and you have to liquidate your hedge positions @ zero profits when trend is bullish.
Buying more positions will overlevrage and adding more risk to your portfolio.
There is a misunderstanding among retail traders that when you hedge you can profit from both ways. The actual purpose of Hedging is for limiting the risk.. not to profit from it.
  • #9,183
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:44pm Jul 24, 2007 2:44pm
True.

Hedging = protect profits / eliminate risk (except swap losses of course).

But it seems I made a wise choice by shorting more. Am locked in profit now.

Regards.
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #9,184
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:45pm Jul 24, 2007 2:45pm
need to next hour

246.90 is next, i think
  • #9,185
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:50pm Jul 24, 2007 2:50pm
anyone who wants to go short .... it too risky to enter now... retracemnt due about 20% of the fall... wait till the market calms down and breath.
  • #9,186
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:50pm Jul 24, 2007 2:50pm
don't mind if i do...

http://www.daystoamaze.co.uk/images/bear_316x237.jpg
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #9,187
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:53pm Jul 24, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting auslanco
anyone who wants to go short .... it too risky to enter now... retracemnt due about 20% of the fall... wait till the market calms down and breath.
yeah,.......I am scared of GJ usual 100 pip retracement.
  • #9,188
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:53pm Jul 24, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting monarch
I agree the 89 ma is very convincing when retracing on the long trend.

Another point of view is the 38.2 fibo line at 248.79 which has supported very well the past 11 - 4HR candles, but there is a close under this line at the last 4HR.

We are finding resistance in this area of 248.70 from the cluster of 4 hr candles from 7-11 to 7-13, this would be the next support to break through if the GJ is to continue downward.

Then we have the 50% fibo at 248.07, and the target of my part exit is at 247.40, the 61.8% fibo line.

Also keep an eye on the UJ to break down in order to see the GJ continue down. I am watching for the UJ to head to the 119.79 line.

Also will watch for the GU, which seems unstoppable for months now to press upwards to the 2.0680 level reaching new highs once again.

This is just my point of view, and not a trade recommendation.

Enjoy and Good Trading to all!
Target on Short just completed.
  • #9,189
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:54pm Jul 24, 2007 2:54pm
There is still some room to go...
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #9,190
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:56pm Jul 24, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting Rabax
There is still some room to go...
It will breath a liitle with retracement before the next big move down towards 245
  • #9,191
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:58pm Jul 24, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting auslanco
My target is 245.20 by friday..
Thanks Auslanco. Another question: along the way down, do you protect profits by using trailing stops?

Thanks again.
  • #9,192
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:59pm Jul 24, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting sarama001
yeah,.......I am scared of GJ usual 100 pip retracement.
yesss that could happen.. wait till that happens before enter short. Most probably 2nd hour after japan open...
  • #9,193
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:03pm Jul 24, 2007 3:03pm
retracement just started for 100 pips
  • #9,194
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:05pm Jul 24, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting auslanco
retracement just started for 100 pips
How so?

USD pullback from 120?
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #9,195
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:07pm Jul 24, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting magiclino
Thanks Auslanco. Another question: along the way down, do you protect profits by using trailing stops?

Thanks again.

No I dont... My target pips for this pair is around 300-500 pips on every single trade. there are usually 1 or two 100 pip retracements before it reach my target. so It's not feasible for me to have trailling stops on this pair
  • #9,196
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:09pm Jul 24, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting Rabax
How so?

USD pullback from 120?

dont get panicked.. this is just a breather before the next push south... if any one wants to go south you can eneter above 248.05 area
  • #9,197
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:09pm Jul 24, 2007 3:09pm
thank you auslanco you're the man...
  • #9,198
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:11pm Jul 24, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting auslanco
No I dont... My target pips for this pair is around 300-500 pips on every single trade. there are usually 1 or two 100 pip retracements before it reach my target. so It's not feasible for me to have trailling stops on this pair
Do you ever trade the retracements just for some quick scalping fun while you wait for the larger trade to play out?
  • #9,199
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:13pm Jul 24, 2007 3:13pm
great week so far. Without any drawdown or risky gambles, I have increased my account by 44%.


And its only Tuesday
  • #9,200
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:15pm Jul 24, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting forexrules
Do you ever trade the retracements just for some quick scalping fun while you wait for the larger trade to play out?
No... but my brother makes tons of cash after learning to catch the retracement ... I just cant get my head around going against the trend...
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