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  • #1,241
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:10pm Nov 30, 2006 9:10pm
Hi,
Anyone have elliot wave indicator?
Yacob I dive the market without Fear.
  • #1,242
  • Dec 1, 2006 12:02am Dec 1, 2006 12:02am
I think if we trade much above 1.9700 then big number 2.0000 will like a magnet.
  • #1,243
  • Dec 1, 2006 3:19am Dec 1, 2006 3:19am
Quoting fixme1too
daily with 3 going to 261 looking for 5 to die soon really liking 9775 area before retrace
As per Elliot's rules: for a correct count, wave 4 should not retrace lower then wave 1's top. So we have a correct count.

It's hard to get the correct count every time, but what we can do it learn from each situation, like this most recent one. And the great thing about forex is, the next lesson is never too far away

All the best!
Goozman
  • #1,244
  • Dec 1, 2006 4:00am Dec 1, 2006 4:00am
9775 may be blowing in the wind now 9747 high for the day may have been the 9747 may have been our high unless mr.bernanke can find a way to screew up things some more today I really doubt it. 9043 is going to be very vital area in the months to come. should get good bounce here if we bypass todays high on the bounce and close there good chance of 2's. If not forget about it. Technically we could be finish this upper movement with 5 wave on the monthly chart being complete now. I added short to my short at 9730.This could be the start of my savings acct for the year. Remember today is 12-1-06 look at your chart a year ago this time last year its time to turn now but as i said we are at 161.8 on the monthly chart and can tecnically go to 261.8 I will be taking porfit at 9043 riding that wave up and watching closely to see if we break todays high and close there. If we dont close higher than todays high IM taking profit at top for big ride down. MAJOR RIDE DOWN for the rest of the year. There will be some up and downs big up and downs as we go
  • #1,245
  • Dec 1, 2006 4:45am Dec 1, 2006 4:45am
I saw 9 mini waves on this insane 2-week impulse wave rally on eur/usd, gbp/usd and aud/usd, expected to have ended now.. phew
Tra-X
  • #1,246
  • Dec 1, 2006 11:50pm Dec 1, 2006 11:50pm
Looking at the 1 Month 30 Year Chart:

The last time GBP/USD Candle Closed above today's closing price of 1.9880 was back on January 1979. The candle closed with "no candle body or wick touching" the line of this price.

Even though the previously 3 months of candles touched this 1.9880 line with part of its body/wick - only the January 1979 Candle closed above it.

In June 1981 the price fell below this mark again to remain.

Then in February 1991 the Price came and touched this mark, but never closed above this price.

Then in Aug. and Sep. of 1992 it skirted this price line closely, but still no close was seen above the 1.9880 hurdle, and it remained under this price until now.

News Facts:

April 1978 (Movement starts to head up from here)
Outgoing President "Jimmy Carter was to make his first substantive statement about an issue that suddenly has become the nation's No. 1 worry: inflation was to make his first substantive statement about an issue that suddenly has become the nation's No. 1 worry: inflation."

January 1979 (Price breaks above 1.9880 mark)
Oil Prices started to skyrocket!

The Year of 1979(Forex - GBP is going to the moon)
Iran - Inflation 13.3% - Prime Rate 15.75% - Oil Increase 50% 1 year - China Invade Vietnam - and other major news reports.

The Year of 1980 (Forex - GBP is past the moon now on to mars)
Iraq invades Iran - Olympics are boycotted - Hostages are taken in Iraq - Gold hits 880.00 per ounce - Inflation 13.5% - Prime Rate 21% (ouch) -
President Carter loses the Election to the "Gipper" Ronald Reagan in November

It is here in November 1981 when Reagan wins election the Market shows GBP/USD stalls - and there you go for the ride down to February 1985.

This was a very large decline that lasted for 3 years and 3 months.
This is what a Super Trend looks like.

The FIBO from the High and Low during this period the 61.8% is 1.9139.

Here we see resistance and start to see the formation of the (left shoulder) from Nov. 2004 to Apr. 2005.

Looking at the chart you can see a "Head and Shoulder formation completed during Aug. of 1987 to Jan.1993 time. The highest the price has returned since the 1985 Low has been 2.0100 in Sep 1992.

Now the same formation start's again in Aug 2003 with a showing of the 1st Peak (the left shoulder) has completed at the 61.8% Fibo (1.9139 area), and we are in the 2nd Peak as of now (the head), after this peak we will decline before we make the 3rd Peak of the (right shoulder).

For a look at a "Head and Shoulder" formation go to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

I would be watching for (head) to Close at 2.0104 which was the high on the Sep. 1992 Candle which is still 446 pips higher from the Closing Price of November 2006 Candle.

As of Dec 1st 2006 (1 Day) we are already 136 pips closer to the goal, only 310 pips to go!

Monarch
  • #1,247
  • Dec 2, 2006 12:19am Dec 2, 2006 12:19am
The closing price on GBP/USD 12-1-2006 Candle was 1.9794 not 1.9880 - the high today reached 1.9846.

"Looking at the 1 Month 30 Year Chart:

The last time GBP/USD Candle Closed above today's closing price of 1.9880 was back on January 1979. The candle closed with "no candle body or wick touching" the line of this price."
  • #1,248
  • Edited 9:27am Dec 2, 2006 8:57am | Edited 9:27am
You make a very good point monarch I actually have us going into this range too but was looking for some small retrace first but have not seen any yet. lol thanx for your input especially on itme 's thread it helped me to see something in EW that i was not seeing I also said i would post the chart here it is. Also I saw a head and shoulders forming as well here but not on the time frame you were using. I saw it starting from 12 1 04 with that being the shoulder and now forming the head thats why I still see us going down for majority of next year. Disregard the 5 on this chart, once we get a retrace on the mini 3 wave we will better be able to determine the end point for this pair. The monthly really shows a better picture because there are no complex waves.The daily and 4 hour especially the 4 hour is showing sign of small retrace possible but as one really known analysis stated on Bloomberg, " right now the pairs are not trading based on fundamentals from looking at the monthly I would have to disagree but on the other time frames this appears to be true as wwwin stated right now would be good time to follow your technicals.



Quoting monarch
Looking at the 1 Month 30 Year Chart:

The last time GBP/USD Candle Closed above today's closing price of 1.9880 was back on January 1979. The candle closed with "no candle body or wick touching" the line of this price.

Even though the previously 3 months of candles touched this 1.9880 line with part of its body/wick - only the January 1979 Candle closed above it.

In June 1981 the price fell below this mark again to remain.

Then in February 1991 the Price came and touched this mark, but never closed above this price.

Then in Aug. and Sep. of 1992 it skirted this price line closely, but still no close was seen above the 1.9880 hurdle, and it remained under this price until now.

News Facts:

April 1978 (Movement starts to head up from here)
Outgoing President "Jimmy Carter was to make his first substantive statement about an issue that suddenly has become the nation's No. 1 worry: inflation was to make his first substantive statement about an issue that suddenly has become the nation's No. 1 worry: inflation."

January 1979 (Price breaks above 1.9880 mark)
Oil Prices started to skyrocket!

The Year of 1979(Forex - GBP is going to the moon)
Iran - Inflation 13.3% - Prime Rate 15.75% - Oil Increase 50% 1 year - China Invade Vietnam - and other major news reports.

The Year of 1980 (Forex - GBP is past the moon now on to mars)
Iraq invades Iran - Olympics are boycotted - Hostages are taken in Iraq - Gold hits 880.00 per ounce - Inflation 13.5% - Prime Rate 21% (ouch) -
President Carter loses the Election to the "Gipper" Ronald Reagan in November

It is here in November 1981 when Reagan wins election the Market shows GBP/USD stalls - and there you go for the ride down to February 1985.

This was a very large decline that lasted for 3 years and 3 months.
This is what a Super Trend looks like.

The FIBO from the High and Low during this period the 61.8% is 1.9139.

Here we see resistance and start to see the formation of the (left shoulder) from Nov. 2004 to Apr. 2005.

Looking at the chart you can see a "Head and Shoulder formation completed during Aug. of 1987 to Jan.1993 time. The highest the price has returned since the 1985 Low has been 2.0100 in Sep 1992.

Now the same formation start's again in Aug 2003 with a showing of the 1st Peak (the left shoulder) has completed at the 61.8% Fibo (1.9139 area), and we are in the 2nd Peak as of now (the head), after this peak we will decline before we make the 3rd Peak of the (right shoulder).

For a look at a "Head and Shoulder" formation go to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

I would be watching for (head) to Close at 2.0104 which was the high on the Sep. 1992 Candle which is still 446 pips higher from the Closing Price of November 2006 Candle.

As of Dec 1st 2006 (1 Day) we are already 136 pips closer to the goal, only 310 pips to go!

Monarch
Attached Image
  • #1,249
  • Dec 2, 2006 7:50pm Dec 2, 2006 7:50pm
I see on monthly you are looking for 3rd of 5th wave. What about weekly?

I see the same, waves 1 and 2 done - waiting on 3rd in a wave 5.

Sound right?
  • #1,250
  • Dec 3, 2006 6:58am Dec 3, 2006 6:58am
possible count A
I am ignoring the 4 wave rule here on the count in the yellow numbers came close enough without closing into wave 1. possible count B to come
and I say possible because you dont have to have the 12345 count in mini waves to always be complete on the wave. look at the 3 wave on the monthly do you see a 12345 but it is definitly a 3 wave. it also extends to 261 we are at 161 on this big 5 wave infact pass the 161 on the 5 wave from the monthly we may already be finished if not very near good possibilty for the 2's.


Quoting SunTrader
I see on monthly you are looking for 3rd of 5th wave. What about weekly?

I see the same, waves 1 and 2 done - waiting on 3rd in a wave 5.

Sound right?
Attached Image
  • #1,251
  • Dec 3, 2006 10:27am Dec 3, 2006 10:27am
Fixme1too,

The distanc between Wave 3 and Wave 1 was 0.1082 pips.

If you were to add this number to Wave 3 top at 1.9030 you would come up a minimum of 2.0112 for Wave 5 High.

I see no problem of reaching soon, with the momentum GBP has had the past week or so.

I am keying on a Wave 5 retracement soon after this area his reached.

Monarch
  • #1,252
  • Dec 3, 2006 10:37am Dec 3, 2006 10:37am
yep happened the same way in april may too. we are on the same page good analysis



Quoting monarch
Fixme1too,

The distanc between Wave 3 and Wave 1 was 0.1082 pips.

If you were to add this number to Wave 3 top at 1.9030 you would come up a minimum of 2.0112 for Wave 5 High.

I see no problem of reaching soon, with the momentum GBP has had the past week or so.

I am keying on a Wave 5 retracement soon after this area his reached.

Monarch
  • #1,253
  • Dec 3, 2006 10:52am Dec 3, 2006 10:52am
After Wave "5" is reached in the 2.0111 range I expect Wave "B" Correction to go down to the 1.9392 area upwards for the Wave "B". Then the Wave "C" Correction should drop GBP down close to the 1.7614 area.

I based this information solely upon the Weekly Chart figuring Highs and Lows and Distances between during the End of 2004 Data Highs - and the End of 2005 Lows.

Monarch
  • #1,254
  • Edited 11:15am Dec 3, 2006 11:04am | Edited 11:15am
Shall see. I am not seeing this at all though seeing 1500's and lower we have not started a wave b yet. unless you are talkling about a BIG WAVE B from 12/05 to now first stop im looking at is 9418-9387. Need to run webinar starting within next hour.


Quoting monarch
After Wave "5" is reached in the 2.0111 range I expect Wave "B" Correction to go down to the 1.9392 area upwards for the Wave "B". Then the Wave "C" Correction should drop GBP down close to the 1.7614 area.

I based this information solely upon the Weekly Chart figuring Highs and Lows and Distances between during the End of 2004 Data Highs - and the End of 2005 Lows.

Monarch
  • #1,255
  • Dec 3, 2006 10:09pm Dec 3, 2006 10:09pm
fixme1too,

please consider I'm still a newbie to EW and would appreciate some comments. That count is based primary on fib levels and I think we are very close to completing wave 5 ( if not already complete ) as it has extended to 61.8% of wave 3. Another confluence to that level is that wave c has extended to 161.8% of wave a.
Have a look at the chart bellow and let me know what do you think. Thx

1.8516 + (0.618 x (1.9141 - 1.7048)) = 1.9809 [61.8% extention of wave 3]
1.8836 + (1.618 x (1.9134 - 1.8516)) = 1.9836 [1.618% extention of wave a]
Attached Image
  • #1,256
  • Dec 4, 2006 12:43am Dec 4, 2006 12:43am
Fixme1too,

You stated, "Shall see. I am not seeing this at all though seeing 1500's and lower we have not started a wave b yet. unless you are talkling about a BIG WAVE B from 12/05 to now first stop im looking at is 9418-9387. Need to run webinar starting within next hour"

In reference to your stop, I expect it to actually drop to 1.9312 low in the Big Wave "A" Correction (I stated it as "B" above, which should have been the "A", it was a typing mistake).
Then for the Big Wave "C" Correction I am looking for a low near the 1.7614 area.

I will be watching the thread for your updated comment!

Thanks.

Monarch
  • #1,257
  • Dec 4, 2006 8:45am Dec 4, 2006 8:45am
I'm not fixme1too, who is much more competent to answer your question, but I'd like to suggest to use numbers instead of letters in impulse waves and save the letters for the corrective waves on your chart.

Maybe it's me but for a minute I thought you're talking about corrective waves with a,b,c, which are not , at least that is how I see it.

I'm also new to EW, but shouldn't impulse waves 1,3 and 5 have also 5 waves ? I'm seeing 3 on your chart. Is that right.

Krkvak

Quoting JimboFX
fixme1too,

please consider I'm still a newbie to EW and would appreciate some comments. That count is based primary on fib levels and I think we are very close to completing wave 5 ( if not already complete ) as it has extended to 61.8% of wave 3. Another confluence to that level is that wave c has extended to 161.8% of wave a.
Have a look at the chart bellow and let me know what do you think. Thx

1.8516 + (0.618 x (1.9141 - 1.7048)) = 1.9809 [61.8% extention of wave 3]
1.8836 + (1.618 x (1.9134 - 1.8516)) = 1.9836 [1.618% extention of wave a]
  • #1,258
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:04am Dec 4, 2006 9:04am
Quoting monarch
Fixme1too,

You stated, "Shall see. I am not seeing this at all though seeing 1500's and lower we have not started a wave b yet. unless you are talkling about a BIG WAVE B from 12/05 to now first stop im looking at is 9418-9387. Need to run webinar starting within next hour"

In reference to your stop, I expect it to actually drop to 1.9312 low in the Big Wave "A" Correction (I stated it as "B" above, which should have been the "A", it was a typing mistake).
Then for the Big Wave "C" Correction I am looking for a low near the 1.7614 area.

I will be watching the thread for your updated comment!

Thanks.

Monarch
Hi Monarch,

Can you please post your chart explaining your wave prediction...

Thanks...
  • #1,259
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:07am Dec 4, 2006 9:07am
Sorry I have not been able to post charts. I could use the help doing this!

Monarch
  • #1,260
  • Dec 4, 2006 12:43pm Dec 4, 2006 12:43pm
in mt4 go to file-save chart as picture

then choose the option where you can specify a pixel width. 600x600 is the max allowed here on FF

choose that option, save and then upload

Quoting monarch
Sorry I have not been able to post charts. I could use the help doing this!

Monarch
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