The week has seen markets pause to assess wtf a Trump regime will mean going forward. USTs tell the tale as now the 10yr is back to near 4.50%. So the bond market sees inflation sticking around, the week's data says the same thing. The Fed will not be able to continue easing in the face of looming inflationary policies. The normal trajectory for stocks post-election is a rally into December - the Santa rally. We may still see that, but the fear of inflation, rising UST rates, and the strengthening USD are all headwinds against it. If the FOMC keeps the ffr unchanged at the mid-DECEMBER meeting, that could spell lights out for any Santa rally. To me, it looks like we are setting up for a significant correction for stocks in early 2025. As soon as Trump takes office, things will start to be clearer as to how disruptive he will be. Markets like a lot of what he says he will do - cut taxes and regulations, but the tariffs thing is going to be problematic. Mass deportations also. I expect there will be lots of volatility, good for traders always...
Could be there is going to be a doji week and we break hard up or down next week. I'm still bullish NDX and SPX, but hedging with downside trades also....
Could be there is going to be a doji week and we break hard up or down next week. I'm still bullish NDX and SPX, but hedging with downside trades also....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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