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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,081
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:07am Jul 24, 2007 2:07am
Quoting auslanco
The 4 hour trend I use for my trading strategy is a very powerful and storng trend. Even if a news.. no matter how big or small the outcome... it will only go maximum 50-100 pips opposite direction and it will retrace back to the 4 hour trend. thats why I always catch the trend at the starts because even if there is a news spike to the opposite direction it will not hit my stop loss and later it will come back to my 4hr trend. Most of the times the news spikes will be on the same direction as my 4hr trends
hey, can you post a chart on how you exactly catch the trend with the 4hr chart with 5sma? i'm having a hard time picturing it. thanks!
  • #9,082
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:12am Jul 24, 2007 2:12am
Quoting TacitTrader
hey, can you post a chart on how you exactly catch the trend with the 4hr chart with 5sma? i'm having a hard time picturing it. thanks!

You are misinformed.. i dont catch the trend from 5 SMA.. it just a retracement happens which I have studied after a big spike. you can find a ZIP file of my charts about 20 posts back on this thread.
  • #9,083
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:25am Jul 24, 2007 2:25am
Quoting auslanco
Hope this might works...
Post #8964 has the zip file.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16691&page=598
  • #9,084
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:30am Jul 24, 2007 2:30am
Quoting monarch
Post #8964 has the zip file.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16691&page=598

Thanks monarch... I actually made my self a cup of coffee and was getting ready to search for that post.. you saved my time
  • #9,085
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:33am Jul 24, 2007 2:33am
Quoting wilson
If you keep thinking that way then the market would not have retracements and reversals, isn't it?
well at least not yet, no bad candle...so nothing wrong to keep running with th e bulls.
  • #9,086
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:33am Jul 24, 2007 2:33am
Quoting monarch
Post #8964 has the zip file.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16691&page=598
HI Ken, loved that Mckee link you posted the other day, a very very talented guy. Andy
  • #9,087
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:38am Jul 24, 2007 2:38am
I have 245.65 ish as the 78.6 retrace on the start of the move up on the 18th, a full retrace would take us to 248 ish. Looking at the 4 hour charts I struggle to see any real upside.
  • #9,088
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:44am Jul 24, 2007 2:44am
Quoting auslanco
Thanks monarch... I actually made my self a cup of coffee and was getting ready to search for that post.. you saved my time
thanks! but uhmm... err... i can barely understand what's on that thing.. so many indicators. i saw this post the last time. i suppose that is why i asked for you to explain again because i didn't really udnerstand what was going on with that one.

thank you for the help. i'm just really desperate to get this trading right. college funds already blown out. need to get them back. lol.
  • #9,089
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:44am Jul 24, 2007 2:44am
(jp) Boj' Fukui: Does Not Mention Policy Or The Economy In His Speech - Ttn
  • #9,090
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:48am Jul 24, 2007 2:48am
Quoting TacitTrader
thanks! but uhmm... err... i can barely understand what's on that thing.. so many indicators. i saw this post the last time. i suppose that is why i asked for you to explain again because i didn't really udnerstand what was going on with that one.

thank you for the help. i'm just really desperate to get this trading right. college funds already blown out. need to get them back. lol.

PM me.. I will try to help you out..
  • #9,091
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:13am Jul 24, 2007 3:13am
I have been following this thread with interest and agree that all the (H4) indicators are bearish. But seems to me that the 89ma (2week) is providing a support level at the moment. When this breaks then I will see a convincing short opportunity.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,092
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:24am Jul 24, 2007 3:24am
Quoting smikester
I have been following this thread with interest and agree that all the (H4) indicators are bearish. But seems to me that the 89ma (2week) is providing a support level at the moment. When this breaks then I will see a convincing short opportunity.
I agree the 89 ma is very convincing when retracing on the long trend.

Another point of view is the 38.2 fibo line at 248.79 which has supported very well the past 11 - 4HR candles, but there is a close under this line at the last 4HR.

We are finding resistance in this area of 248.70 from the cluster of 4 hr candles from 7-11 to 7-13, this would be the next support to break through if the GJ is to continue downward.

Then we have the 50% fibo at 248.07, and the target of my part exit is at 247.40, the 61.8% fibo line.

Also keep an eye on the UJ to break down in order to see the GJ continue down. I am watching for the UJ to head to the 119.79 line.

Also will watch for the GU, which seems unstoppable for months now to press upwards to the 2.0680 level reaching new highs once again.

This is just my point of view, and not a trade recommendation.

Enjoy and Good Trading to all!
  • #9,093
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:30am Jul 24, 2007 3:30am
Quoting monarch
I agree the 89 ma is very convincing when retracing on the long trend.

Another point of view is the 38.2 fibo line at 248.79 which has supported very well the past 11 - 4HR candles, but there is a close under this line at the last 4HR.

We are finding resistance in this area of 248.70 from the cluster of 4 hr candles from 7-11 to 7-13, this would be the next support to break through if the GJ is to continue downward.

Then we have the 50% fibo at 248.07, and the target of my part exit is at 247.40, the 61.8% fibo line.

Also keep an eye on the UJ to break down in order to see the GJ continue down. I am watching for the UJ to head to the 119.79 line.

Also will watch for the GU, which seems unstoppable for months now to press upwards to the 2.0680 level reaching new highs once again.

This is just my point of view, and not a trade recommendation.

Enjoy and Good Trading to all!
Excellent analysis as always Monarch !
  • #9,094
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:33am Jul 24, 2007 3:33am
Quoting TacitTrader
thanks! but uhmm... err... i can barely understand what's on that thing.. so many indicators. i saw this post the last time. i suppose that is why i asked for you to explain again because i didn't really udnerstand what was going on with that one.

thank you for the help. i'm just really desperate to get this trading right. college funds already blown out. need to get them back. lol.
You should only ever trade with funds that you can afford to loose and IMO the GBPJPY is NOT the pair for a beginner - try the EURUSD first before moving on to the more volatile and dangerous pairs.

These links might help:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=27286&page=30

and....http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22680

Good luck.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,095
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:38am Jul 24, 2007 3:38am
CORRECTION
Based upon my 30 min tracking of GJ, i would expect (one or two) more attempts at the 248.60 for a Open on the 30 minute candle.

We have a upper trend line 25 pips above, and the range for the past 9 hours has been high 248.98 and low 248.50 (30 minute candle body) which the low sits right on the lower trend line.

The support here is 248.57 in terms of the candle low 7-20, and we have attempted to breach this line with no avail since.

I would suggest that if we have (one or two) more 30 min. candle open at the 248.60, we would be in for a deeper move down sometime soon.

This last 4 hour candle opened at 248.61.
  • #9,096
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:41am Jul 24, 2007 3:41am
Thanks for that insight, Monarch. I know a lot of analysis went into those few words. Thanks for sharing your hard work.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,097
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:50am Jul 24, 2007 3:50am
Quoting smikester
Thanks for that insight, Monarch. I know a lot of analysis went into those few words. Thanks for sharing your hard work.
No problem, were all a team here, and I like to gather as much info possible, I trade the GJ only, but spend many hours watching the EU, GU, and UJ for data purposes.

Lets pull together and make a run on this pip machine.

Thanks everyone for you insight and continual postings, I read everyone of them personally.

Ken
  • #9,098
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:50am Jul 24, 2007 3:50am
Quoting monarch
We are finding resistance in this area of 248.70 from the cluster of 4 hr candles from 7-11 to 7-13, this would be the next support to break through if the GJ is to continue downward.
However - one minor point - when will you guys realise that we speak English and therefore 7-11 or 7-13 doesn't exist. This should be 11-7 or 13-7 !! I remember many years ago selling IT systems and some guys flew in from NY for a presentation in early May and arrived at 4.30pm. About 5ish the CEo said "c'mon guys we have to make a decision by 5.29"

Now, I was just about to ask why they needed to make a decision before 5.30pm when the penny dropped - boy that would have been soooo embarassing.

On another point - the letter Z, pronounced " zed" not "zeee", does not belong in "accessorize" , " customize" etc. it is a letter "s" and always has been , always will be !

Here endeth the Lesson !

God save the Queen !
  • #9,099
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:54am Jul 24, 2007 3:54am
Quoting musicman007
However - one minor point - when will you guys realise that we speak the English and therefore 7-11 or 7-13 doesn't exist. This should be 11-7 or 13-7 !! I remember many years ago selling IT systems and some guys flew in from NY for a presentation in early May and arrived at 4.30pm. About 5ish the CEo said "c'mon guys we have to make a decision by 5.29"

Now, I was just about to ask why they needed to make a decision before 5.30pm when the penny dropped - boy that would have been soooo embarassing.

On another point - the letter Z, pronounced " zed" not "zeee", does not belong in "accessorize" , " customize" etc. it is a letter "s" and always has been , always will be !

Here endeth the Lesson !

God save the Queen !
Very good bro. LOL

Hope you didn't think 7-11 is some kind of convenient store or something?

Actually I should say 7-11-07, as not to confuse those who have a difficult time with a basic letter such as ZZZZZZ.


I will shape up M-MAN
  • #9,100
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:59am Jul 24, 2007 3:59am
Quoting monarch
Very good bro. LOL

Hope you didn't think 7-11 is some kind of convenient store or something?

Actually I should say 7-11-07, as not to confuse those who have a difficult time with a basic letter such as ZZZZZZ.


I will shape up M-MAN
Two nations seperated by a common language !
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