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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #701
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:36am Jul 20, 2007 9:36am
Opportunity #GJ3/07
GBP/JPY Long
4 parts
Entry: 245.52
Stop (initial): 244.72

Wave 5 of big wave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 246.14 (+62). S/L tightened to 245.81 (guarantees +29).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 247.26 (+174). S/L tightened to 245.95 (guarantees +43).
Update 3: Took 3rd profit at 248.43 (+291). S/L tightened to 246.52 (guarantees +100).
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).
Update 5: S/L tightened to 248.52 (guarantees +300).
Update 6: S/L tightened to 249.52 (guarantees +400). Just came back from downtown to see this monster has hit 251.
Update 7: Blasted for +400, finally. End of big wave 5 up, major retracement baby, to below 230?

Total gain: +927
Tra-X
  • #702
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:09am Jul 20, 2007 10:09am
Quoting Traex
Update 7: Blasted for +400, finally. End of big wave 5 up, major retracement baby, to below 230?

Total gain: +927

Boink. Yepp, going from a weekly USDJPY perspective I don't rule out 119.50 being hit and lord knows what else

As for GBPJPY, maybe once cable shows us it's made a top the two will synch up and tag team down

I of course picked the one single wrong day to try and get on board lol ;d

No prob, got retriggered short..

What a GREAT job on GJ Traex
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #703
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:16am Jul 20, 2007 11:16am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #GJ3/07
GBP/JPY Long
4 parts
Entry: 245.52
Stop (initial): 244.72

Wave 5 of big wave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 246.14 (+62). S/L tightened to 245.81 (guarantees +29).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 247.26 (+174). S/L tightened to 245.95 (guarantees +43).
Update 3: Took 3rd profit at 248.43 (+291). S/L tightened to 246.52 (guarantees +100).
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).
Update 5: S/L tightened to 248.52 (guarantees +300).
Update 6: S/L tightened to 249.52 (guarantees +400). Just came back from downtown to see this monster has hit 251.
Update 7: Blasted for +400, finally. End of big wave 5 up, major retracement baby, to below 230?

Total gain: +927
one day i´m gonna catch you. until then....you rule!!!
  • #704
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:12pm Jul 20, 2007 12:12pm
Hey thanks SeekingLight and Wallboroff, too bad I can't get the last part to be closed around 252. Yeah, I'm greedy.

Looks like Cable is nearing its end of crazy rally from 1.9622 too. Finally?

Enjoy weekend friends.
Tra-X
  • #705
  • Jul 22, 2007 4:59am Jul 22, 2007 4:59am
Weekly review and recap:

Total trades closed = 1, is a winner for +927.
Net gain this week = +927

No short-term and medium-long term trades open.

Cable is still on the rampage, another strong rally this week. It's prolly ending soon tho. Max rally range from my calc is still at 2.0674.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 30m small.gif Size: 14 KB
Tra-X
  • #706
  • Jul 22, 2007 5:07am Jul 22, 2007 5:07am
A really messy wave count for EUR/USD. Still going up it seems. Targets above 1.3840s at 1.3930s and then psychological 1.4000 are available.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h1 small.gif Size: 15 KB
Tra-X
  • #707
  • Jul 22, 2007 5:15am Jul 22, 2007 5:15am
GBP/JPY has prolly finished its wave (red) 5 and now is in very big wave 4 down (the very big wave 3 was from 192.61 to 251.09). 23.6% retracement of this wave is at 237.30, still far to go.
USD/JPY broke last week's low and now its count becomes messy. Will update about it later.

Good luck to everyone next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h part 1.gif Size: 15 KB
Tra-X
  • #708
  • Jul 23, 2007 6:27am Jul 23, 2007 6:27am
Sure hope you are correct about GBPJPY, would need that to drop quite a bit


Here's my humble attempt to recognize the current USDCHF pattern. Could it be one of these?

http://www.trending123.com/media/fre...uary/fig18.gif

Bearish Expanding Triangle is what I am favoring here. We should currently be making the final bear-scare surge upwards, if I am not mistaken.

Or did I place the d too soon and we've yet to make a minor retest of 1.1985 one last time before a sudden blast comes?

Not sure about proportions in time and price..
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #709
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:29am Jul 24, 2007 1:29am
Quoting SeekingLight
Sure hope you are correct about GBPJPY, would need that to drop quite a bit
Hey SeekingLight,

Now I look at the mess in USD/CHF as an ending diagonal wave 5 of bigger wave 3 down (ended at 1.1961). Now it's prolly in big wave 4 of the bear rally (bigger wave C down?) starting from 1.2476.

I'm reducing my trading time now as my classes have started again this week. Sorry for the late reply.
Tra-X
  • #710
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:54am Jul 24, 2007 1:54am
Traex .... in case you missed it, here is a copy of a very interesting post on the Seasonal Moves in this pair. The main thread is well worth reading.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9064

This supports your bearish analysis....but it does need to break the support in the 248.50 area.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #711
  • Edited 12:38pm Jul 25, 2007 9:31am | Edited 12:38pm
Opportunity #E22/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3712
Stop (initial): 1.3672

End of subwave A or 1 or 4 down (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.3744 for +32. S/L will move to 1.3696 once TP1 is hit.
Tra-X
  • #712
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:38am Jul 25, 2007 9:38am
Quoting Islander
Traex .... in case you missed it, here is a copy of a very interesting post on the Seasonal Moves in this pair. The main thread is well worth reading.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9064

This supports your bearish analysis....but it does need to break the support in the 248.50 area.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Hey Islander, thanks for the post. That's a very useful stats.
Breaking below 245.00 will strengthen the major corrective wave signal.
Tra-X
  • #713
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:45am Jul 25, 2007 10:45am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #E22/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3712
Stop (initial): 1.3672

End of subwave A or 1 or 4 down (?).
Got mine at 1.3700 for a similiar hope and reason...how far do you expect us to get back up for the B before the final 3 or C or 5 down smacks us silly?

And are you SURE about GBJPY getting below 240? Seems crazy at the moment

Would also put cable quite low, no?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #714
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:05am Jul 25, 2007 11:05am
Quoting SeekingLight
Got mine at 1.3700 for a similiar hope and reason...how far do you expect us to get back up for the B before the final 3 or C or 5 down smacks us silly?

And are you SURE about GBJPY getting below 240? Seems crazy at the moment

Would also put cable quite low, no?
Quite a dangerous trade this one.
Well there's a possibility that GBP/JPY will even go to 230s or below in next few mths, but first it needs to break below 245. Let's see man.
Tra-X
  • #715
  • Jul 26, 2007 7:39am Jul 26, 2007 7:39am
Opportunity #E22/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3712
Stop (initial): 1.3672

End of subwave A or 1 or 4 down (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.3744 for +32. S/L will move to 1.3696 once TP1 is hit.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.3691 (guarantees -21).
Tra-X
  • #716
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:58am Jul 26, 2007 8:58am
I really wish you'd have some wavecounts on GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY for me


I've made bucketloads on some pairs today, got completely and utterly wiped out on others and am looking for clues as to whether and where I should expect bigger retracement waves and impulsive wave ends on those I still have

I'm amazed you didn't short GJ somewhere?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #717
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:33am Jul 26, 2007 11:33am
Opportunity #E22/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3712
Stop (initial): 1.3672

End of subwave A or 1 or 4 down (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.3744 for +32. S/L will move to 1.3696 once TP1 is hit.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.3691 (guarantees -21).
Update 3: TP1 was hit for +32. S/L tightened to 1.3728 (guarantees +16).
Tra-X
  • #718
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:13pm Jul 26, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I really wish you'd have some wavecounts on GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY for me


I've made bucketloads on some pairs today, got completely and utterly wiped out on others and am looking for clues as to whether and where I should expect bigger retracement waves and impulsive wave ends on those I still have

I'm amazed you didn't short GJ somewhere?
Congratz on your pips, SeekingLight.
I'll try to look at Cable, USD/JPY, and GBP/JPY counts, maybe EUR/JPY too. Will post them later if possible.
Nope, didn't sell GBP/JPY, too bad. Only managed to scalp its weekly gap early monday. :
Tra-X
  • #719
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:35pm Jul 26, 2007 12:35pm
Well UJ EJ GJ pretty much all made the same motions in the end. EJ and GJ are near identical except for mild skewing in the "angle" of the waves. GBPJPY was more horizontal, EJ was tilted downwards thanks to EURGBP nosediving.

You really don't need to do extra work just for me, but if you find the time to do an update on one of them later that'd be cool =)

Mostly wondering what the heck kind of dance GBPUSD is doing and whether USDJPY is due for a correction before a last fatal blow or whether we'll just bust on through to 117.xx..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #720
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:52pm Jul 26, 2007 4:52pm
GJ down 620 pips in a day, yikes. Now I believe everything you said

Trust price. Know yourself.
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