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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,061
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:14pm Jul 23, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting bluerose
I see on the daily chart what you describe here...So, should the short folks bail out or stick to their guns? Regards

BR


You should never mix up the difference between the trend and the momentum... you have to use other indicators such as MACD, Stochs and RSI to determin the trend.
dailly Momentum bullish means this is not going to be a sudden 200 pip bearish shoot. it's going down slow and steady along with the 5 sma with some small bull spikes on the way. if the daily, 4hr and 1 hr momentum is pointing down and trend is down we would have seen the last bearish spike about 200 pips . but the trend is bear and it's a slow trend towards 245. when you check tommorrow and if the momentum is pointing down .. thn we will have a good shoot down tommorrow.
  • #9,062
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:53pm Jul 23, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting auslanco
You should never mix up the difference between the trend and the momentum... you have to use other indicators such as MACD, Stochs and RSI to determin the trend.
dailly Momentum bullish means this is not going to be a sudden 200 pip bearish shoot. it's going down slow and steady along with the 5 sma with some small bull spikes on the way. if the daily, 4hr and 1 hr momentum is pointing down and trend is down we would have seen the last bearish spike about 200 pips . but the trend is bear and it's a slow trend towards 245. when you check tommorrow and if the momentum is pointing down .. thn we will have a good shoot down tommorrow.
No chance to get mix up as I do not use momentum indicator. I use only MACD, RSI, CCI, Bollinger Bands and pivot points for trading. They seem sufficient for my purpose. Thanks for introducing me to this indicator. We'll see how things play out. I look forward to loading the pair @ 245 but I'm happy loading @ 247.03 which is daily S3 too. Best wishes in your trading. BR.
  • #9,063
  • Jul 23, 2007 11:00pm Jul 23, 2007 11:00pm
You are repeatedly claiming that the pair is dropping to 245 here. But what is this claim based on? Are you just praying for it to save your old short positions? Sorry if I'm sounding a bit blatant, but no one knows how many hours/days/weeks it will take for that to realize, or may not even realize after all. Why not just hopping on the downward trend once it starts? To me, it's waste of time to wait for it happen, while ignoring the "sudden spikes" as you put. I've earned more than 150 pips on this pair only for the past three trading days. I'll just jump right in the downward trend when it gets momentum.

Quoting auslanco
You should never mix up the difference between the trend and the momentum... you have to use other indicators such as MACD, Stochs and RSI to determin the trend.
dailly Momentum bullish means this is not going to be a sudden 200 pip bearish shoot. it's going down slow and steady along with the 5 sma with some small bull spikes on the way. if the daily, 4hr and 1 hr momentum is pointing down and trend is down we would have seen the last bearish spike about 200 pips . but the trend is bear and it's a slow trend towards 245. when you check tommorrow and if the momentum is pointing down .. thn we will have a good shoot down tommorrow.
  • #9,064
  • Edited 11:53pm Jul 23, 2007 11:35pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting ukutrader
You are repeatedly claiming that the pair is dropping to 245 here. But what is this claim based on? Are you just praying for it to save your old short positions? Sorry if I'm sounding a bit blatant, but no one knows how many hours/days/weeks it will take for that to realize, or may not even realize after all. Why not just hopping on the downward trend once it starts? To me, it's waste of time to wait for it happen, while ignoring the "sudden spikes" as you put. I've earned more than 150 pips on this pair only for the past three trading days. I'll just jump right in the downward trend when it gets momentum.

Sorry ukutrader, the attachemt which was on your post doesnt concern you. Infact I only gave those information to traders who use the VT TRader and showed them how to use the momentum indicator. By the way, you may not know how many hours/days or weeks it's going to take to reach my 245 target. But I damn well know when it's going to reach. I guess that's the difference between my strategy and yours.
I would like to remind you that I'm a trend trader. My trading style is catch a trend from the top or bottom and prfiting from it with a minimal risk. You on the other hand sounds like a scalper. If that works for you.. it's fanastic.
As I have mentioned before it's not a matter of how many pips you make. It's a matter of how much of a risk you had to take to make that many pips.
Some of "Hit & Run" traders never understand these kinda terms. I do this for a living my friend... I raise my kids , pay bills and buys food from the money I earn from trading. I dont take a position unless i'm atleast 90 % certain about the trade.I dont have the luxury of taking "gamble" trades like you do. I never did trade like that and I never will, simply because I dont want to join that 90% group somewere down the track.There for it's not the pips which counts to me . It's all about RISK/PROFIT ratio.... Good luck and happy trading.
  • #9,065
  • Jul 23, 2007 11:44pm Jul 23, 2007 11:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6426

In August, this pair is bearish.

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif
http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif
  • #9,066
  • Jul 23, 2007 11:58pm Jul 23, 2007 11:58pm
Quoting banzai
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6426

In August, this pair is bearish.

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif
http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif

wow... very useful info banzai.. thanks.
  • #9,067
  • Jul 23, 2007 11:58pm Jul 23, 2007 11:58pm
Quoting banzai
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6426

In August, this pair is bearish.

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif
http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/3910/calyen3fr4.gif
Thanks, Banzai. This is great info. Best, BR.
  • #9,068
  • Jul 24, 2007 12:18am Jul 24, 2007 12:18am
I dont want to join that 90% group somewere down the track.There for it's not the pips which counts to me . It's all about RISK/PROFIT ratio.... Good luck and happy trading.


Absolutely the truth.

The secret to trading is not getting every trade right, but that you reduce losses, and let your profits run.

Money Management is the number one problem with most traders.

Until traders come to an understanding of how each of their trade expectancy and the ratio of win/loss percentages mean everything, they can be right 90% of the time, and also fall into the category of those 90% traders who fail.

Good Trading to all.
  • #9,069
  • Jul 24, 2007 12:21am Jul 24, 2007 12:21am
G J should 248

i c july06

and 600 - 700 pips up after it
  • #9,070
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:03am Jul 24, 2007 1:03am
Quoting auslanco
On this occassion dont be suprise if the price retrace back to 249.10ish where the 1hr 5MA. this doesnt mean the trend is bullish. It's just retraced backk to where the true price is... I usually use the 1hr 5 SMA retracement to enter the market ... and go short ( 4hr trend)
Amazing! Price did retrace to 249.10ish but i missed to short from here..Log out by FXCM. Anyhow, there is always next time...BR
  • #9,071
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:15am Jul 24, 2007 1:15am
Quoting bluerose
Amazing! Price did retrace to 249.10ish but i missed to short from here..Log out by FXCM. Anyhow, there is always next time...BR

Market is very thin .. It might retrace to 4Hr 5 SMA which is 249.20ish.. not sure but be prepared to go short.. it will be a sudden spike.
  • #9,072
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:33am Jul 24, 2007 1:33am
I guess thats it for the 249.10ish unless BoJ Fukai sends a spike upwards.... at 7GMT
  • #9,073
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:37am Jul 24, 2007 1:37am
Auslanco,do you use news im your trades or only technical analyses?
Sorry about my english...
  • #9,074
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:45am Jul 24, 2007 1:45am
Quoting CIORIMAU--
Auslanco,do you use news im your trades or only technical analyses?
The 4 hour trend I use for my trading strategy is a very powerful and storng trend. Even if a news.. no matter how big or small the outcome... it will only go maximum 50-100 pips opposite direction and it will retrace back to the 4 hour trend. thats why I always catch the trend at the starts because even if there is a news spike to the opposite direction it will not hit my stop loss and later it will come back to my 4hr trend. Most of the times the news spikes will be on the same direction as my 4hr trends
  • #9,075
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:49am Jul 24, 2007 1:49am
Look the weekly charts and you see a bull trend yet.Don t thinkt that the weekly trend is more stronger than 4 h charts?
Sorry about my english...
  • #9,076
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:54am Jul 24, 2007 1:54am
Quoting CIORIMAU--
Look the weekly charts and you see a bull trend yet.Don t thinkt that the weekly trend is more stronger than 4 h charts?
If you keep thinking that way then the market would not have retracements and reversals, isn't it?
  • #9,077
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:00am Jul 24, 2007 2:00am
Quoting CIORIMAU--
Look the weekly charts and you see a bull trend yet.Don t thinkt that the weekly trend is more stronger than 4 h charts?

Of course it's alot stronger.. If I had a bearish weekley... I would go for a 1000 pip target. If the monthly was bearish i would have gone for a 2000 pip target.

My calculation are as follows for different time frames..

1hr= 60 to100 pip target
4hr = 300 to 500 target
daily= 500 to 800 target
weekly=800 to 1200 target
monthly = 1500= 3000 target

hope you get the picture
  • #9,078
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:03am Jul 24, 2007 2:03am
Quoting persian.forex
G J should 248

i c july06

and 600 - 700 pips up after it
Do you really think so even after earnings this week? The dollar is being sold off across the board, Yen futures are turning to the upside, and all the bond yields were below 5 today. I'm not calling a top yet in equities but even if earnings are decent, we don't have any positive U.S. news, home sales will be down this week and subprime fears are greater than ever. Everyone is denying that subprime "hasn't spread to the broader markets" but we know that is complete b.s. The DOW and S&P could be seeing a top here any day and if all this adds up correctly we are going to continue down. I know everyone has being calling tops for some time now but if there was ever a week to "signal" a reversal this would be it. There is just to much pressure on the dollar. We could be in for some more chop but one thing is for sure if USD/JPY keeps coming down slowly then GBP/JPY wont have any other choice but to come down with it. If we just shake this down move off like some say and roll back up i will forget the trying to interpret the news forever.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #9,079
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:05am Jul 24, 2007 2:05am
But I only trade Daily and/or 4hr targets and I always enter the trades on 1hr.
  • #9,080
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:05am Jul 24, 2007 2:05am
Quoting bluerose
Amazing! Price did retrace to 249.10ish but i missed to short from here..Log out by FXCM. Anyhow, there is always next time...BR
i thought i was the only one who was having problems with fxcm's trading station.
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