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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #18,341
  • Edited 4:06pm Nov 4, 2024 1:01pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} the first one is a bad trade take a look at m15 m30 and H1 and probably you will see why. I have no idea, but i am guessing the higher frames will not justify going long
ELECTION Fever, and choppy PA
Have been scalping to the long side, "to the mean", against the trend on lower TFs, based on PA on lower TFs, so taken profits when they were there, some well in excess of 100 positive points, but it has been risky, as usual.
Today is a day that longs made profits, shorts made profits and the undecided in the middle got slaughtered, nothing unusual about it.
I am looking to establish serious longs on the 3rd failed retest of the last days Lows.
Keep well and all the important parts of your strategy in place.
Greenings!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #18,342
  • Nov 5, 2024 5:00am Nov 5, 2024 5:00am
Quoting 2be
{quote} ELECTION Fever, and choppy PA Have been scalping to the long side, "to the mean", against the trend on lower TFs, based on PA on lower TFs, so taken profits when they were there, some well in excess of 100 positive points, but it has been risky, as usual. Today is a day that longs made profits, shorts made profits and the undecided in the middle got slaughtered, nothing unusual about it. I am looking to establish serious longs on the 3rd failed retest of the last days Lows. Keep well and all the important parts of your strategy in place....
I do not intend to trade today, removed all MOs, and I am flat.
Do not see any point to trade when I am not able to assess the risk in a way that is satisfactory and in agreement with my trading strategy.
I will rather pass the excitement of riding the untamed wild beast, as I always choose to trade for profit rather than for adrenaline and excitement.
Each one has to make that choice, I have made mine.
Best wishes to all, and let the world live in peace, health and prosperity.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #18,343
  • Nov 5, 2024 6:36pm Nov 5, 2024 6:36pm
Quoting MTF-Trades
{quote} Hi Strat - Thanks for the kind words. I'm looking forward to it! I was already doing something similar, but not with the same context and targets that you use. I wasn't taking the SR into account and was using indicators (the 20 being one of them). However my entries were off of Pinbars, and occasionally Inside Bar's, so I'm new to outside & engulfing bars. I like how you wrapped everything together in a neat, coherent package. I'm also going to make the weekly my worker for the next few weeks so I can spend more time going through the threads...
Is one more relevant than the other?

Difficult to say. The one here which you are on is more current and has the latest posts and my heart and soul went into the first thread but I tried my best to pass everything over from that old thread into this one. Maybe those who have read both can give you some enlightenment.

It seems you already have a good understanding of PA and Market Structure so what I "suggest" is keep what "works" for you from that and augment it with the added PASR strategy. I notice you refer to "pin bars" which is a pet hate for me because "pin bars" are more often than not "Bond Bars"! All "pin bars" are NOT created equal which is why PASR separates them into SHOOTING STARS and HAMMERS with clear defined qualifications. Also, PASR has clear rules on qualifying "Swings".

This thread lost most of it's subscribers because I switched to trading M1 Forex and then, M1 & M5 Futures, BUT, what those who left this thread (longer time frame traders) did not UNDERSTAND, was that because the Market is Fractal, the reasons for taking trades (PASR Set Ups) is STILL valid and had they studied those trades would have seen that they were there on whichever time frame was their choice for their trades. Yes, the higher the time frame, the more reliable are the technicals and their analysis BUT even on 15 seconds, a Hammer is still a Hammer, a Shooting Star is still a Shooting Star, a BEOB is still a BEOB, a BEEB is still a BEEB, a CONTROL BAR is still a CONTROL BAR, Support is still Support, Resistance is still Resistance, Supply is still Supply, Demand is still demand etc. Having said all that NOTHING is perfect in trading as the Market does what it needs to do to satisfy it's goals so we just trade our "edge" with tight Risk and Money Management and move on from any losses.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #18,344
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:49am Nov 6, 2024 5:49am
EURNZD, saw the BRN1.8 only after I got into the trade.
Thought of re-entering but let it go, may not be a good day to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,345
  • Edited 1:13pm Nov 6, 2024 10:17am | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Is one more relevant than the other? Difficult to say. The one here which you are on is more current and has the latest posts and my heart and soul went into the first thread but I tried my best to pass everything over from that old thread into this one. Maybe those who have read both can give you some enlightenment. It seems you already have a good understanding of PA and Market Structure so what I "suggest" is keep what "works" for you from that and augment it with the added PASR strategy. I notice you refer to "pin bars" which is a pet...
Thanks Strat, I got the answer I was looking for.
I'll start with the other thread... Appreciate it.
  • #18,346
  • Nov 6, 2024 10:24am Nov 6, 2024 10:24am
hi everyone, I've just started the path of learning a few days ago and I still got a long way to go but I want to post my current understanding of the methods so I can fix any mistakes and/or implement tips and suggestion from you guys.
This is my first post ever on FF, please don't be to harsh )

Pair: EURUSD
Indicators used for strat's shadow:
EMA 9, EMA 20, EMA 72

Big boss:
- In relations to MAs, seems to be downtrend
- Price Action: Previous candle is BEEB(?) -> downtrend
- Current candle is not closed yet, but if it did close below all EMAs -> downtrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Boss:
- Candle seems to be in downtrend since 6 candles ago
- In relations to MAs, seems to be downtrend
- Price Action: Current candle potentially close as BEEB
Attached Image


Worker:
- Candle broke 2 support directly at 1.08962 and 1.07754 but rejected at support 1.06861
- In relations to MA's, seems to be downtrend
Attached Image



Analysis:
I'm still learning so I'm not sure. Since it's downtrend maybe I will put a SELL order several pips below support 1.06861, and also a BUY order several pips above 1.07754 just in case there's some rebounce.



Any thoughts on this? Thank you.
  • #18,347
  • Nov 6, 2024 1:19pm Nov 6, 2024 1:19pm
Hi Duabelasmil,

I'm new too but I like your analysis.
I think based one Strat's methodology, the short below the daily BEEB makes sense, but the long at 1.07754 should wait until you get a proper signal - either a hammer or a bullish outside/engulfing.

Any senior members please chime in !
  • #18,348
  • Nov 7, 2024 6:22am Nov 7, 2024 6:22am
Quoting duabelasmil
hi everyone, I've just started the path of learning a few days ago and I still got a long way to go but I want to post my current understanding of the methods so I can fix any mistakes and/or implement tips and suggestion from you guys. This is my first post ever on FF, please don't be to harsh ) Pair: EURUSD Indicators used for strat's shadow: EMA 9, EMA 20, EMA 72 Big boss: - In relations to MAs, seems to be downtrend - Price Action: Previous candle is BEEB(?) -> downtrend - Current candle is not closed yet, but if it did close below all...
Hi duabelasmil,

thanks for your post. Personally, I wouldn't take the trade because the trend has been going in one direction for too long and is at a trend line and resistance imo.
But that is only my opinion, I think there would be better possibilities.

best regards

Thorsten
  • #18,349
  • Nov 7, 2024 6:38am Nov 7, 2024 6:38am
Quoting Deichkind
{quote} Hi duabelasmil, thanks for your post. Personally, I wouldn't take the trade because the trend has been going in one direction for too long and is at a trend line and resistance imo. But that is only my opinion, I think there would be better possibilities. best regards Thorsten

I personally looked at USDCHF but missed the trade.
BIG BOSS walking up after swing low confirmed now before EMA9(which is around EMA200 at worker), BOSS broken out of WCC last week and bounced at EMA 20 with hammer, worker with 212 reversal at ema 20/50, but maybe not the best cause of the sideways walking last weeks. And election yesterday does his own I think.

regards
Thorsten
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,350
  • Nov 7, 2024 8:38am Nov 7, 2024 8:38am
One loss at the double dot and shorting the kneejerk reaction after the open at 200ema
PA seems very choppy since the US elections process started. Taking small bites and trying not to get burned on volatility too often.
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  • #18,351
  • Nov 7, 2024 12:33pm Nov 7, 2024 12:33pm
Is my data like this or is PA so bad since elections?
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  • #18,352
  • Nov 8, 2024 4:56am Nov 8, 2024 4:56am
Quoting MTF-Trades
Hi Duabelasmil, I'm new too but I like your analysis. I think based one Strat's methodology, the short below the daily BEEB makes sense, but the long at 1.07754 should wait until you get a proper signal - either a hammer or a bullish outside/engulfing. Any senior members please chime in !
hi MFT!. Indeed, it is also advised in the pdf for new learners not to take trades against the latest trend. thanks for the remainder

Quoting Deichkind
{quote} I personally looked at USDCHF but missed the trade. BIG BOSS walking up after swing low confirmed now before EMA9(which is around EMA200 at worker), BOSS broken out of WCC last week and bounced at EMA 20 with hammer, worker with 212 reversal at ema 20/50, but maybe not the best cause of the sideways walking last weeks. And election yesterday does his own I think. regards Thorsten {image} {image} {image}
hi Deichkind, thanks for your reply.
I'm still learning how to read the charts properly. Essentially, the green box on boss and worker is the WCC right? The WCC in boss timeframe can consists of multiple candles or just one?
And for the hammer on boss, is it significant? Because I thought hammer is significant only during reversal of a downtrend, which is not the case here, I think?
I need to read about 212 reversal as well haha haven't heard that term before.
Sorry I got too many questions
  • #18,353
  • Nov 8, 2024 7:54am Nov 8, 2024 7:54am
Quoting bistolis
Is my data like this or is PA so bad since elections? {image}
Volatility from Election but DOW is usually more sensitive having only 30 stocks which is one of the reasons I prefer to trade S&P 500. Best just to sit out those long wicks and tails and wait for smoother candles and PA.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #18,354
  • Edited 11:17am Nov 10, 2024 10:55am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting duabelasmil
hi everyone, I've just started the path of learning a few days ago and I still got a long way to go but I want to post my current understanding of the methods so I can fix any mistakes and/or implement tips and suggestion from you guys. This is my first post ever on FF, please don't be to harsh ) Pair: EURUSD Indicators used for strat's shadow: EMA 9, EMA 20, EMA 72 Big boss: - In relations to MAs, seems to be downtrend - Price Action: Previous candle is BEEB(?) -> downtrend - Current candle is not closed yet, but if it did close below all...
Good analysis but you should be looking at entries before the big move.
Example attached for the past several days as well as the longer term move with targets
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  • #18,355
  • Nov 11, 2024 5:46am Nov 11, 2024 5:46am
Quoting duabelasmil
{quote} hi MFT!. Indeed, it is also advised in the pdf for new learners not to take trades against the latest trend. thanks for the remainder {quote} hi Deichkind, thanks for your reply. I'm still learning how to read the charts properly. Essentially, the green box on boss and worker is the WCC right? The WCC in boss timeframe can consists of multiple candles or just one? And for the hammer on boss, is it significant? Because I thought hammer is significant only during reversal of a downtrend, which is not the case here, I think? I need...
yes, the green box is the WCC, the WCC-candle is only one candle, the following candles do not close outside the WCC.The higher the TF the more significant a pinbar is, but just as important is where it is created
  • #18,356
  • Nov 11, 2024 5:53am Nov 11, 2024 5:53am
After my weekend analysis of the pairs I found EURGBP interesting, but I have to see how it works out this week.
Big Boss is red, Boss closed outside last WCC and also red and worker was now walking down, I would have preferred that EURGBP had retraced back to the low of the former WCC.

best regards

Thorsten
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,357
  • Nov 11, 2024 5:59am Nov 11, 2024 5:59am
Trades for today.
GBPUSD in Asian session pre London, move to BE and got out quick.
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GBPJPY, couldn't break higher. The volume I am seeing...are they worth anything, or just garbage?
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  • #18,358
  • Nov 11, 2024 10:55am Nov 11, 2024 10:55am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Good analysis but you should be looking at entries before the big move. Example attached for the past several days as well as the longer term move with targets {image} {image} {image} {image}

Great Analysis Terry - Thank you!
  • #18,359
  • Nov 12, 2024 11:32am Nov 12, 2024 11:32am
Quoting Deichkind
For next week I'm looking at EURUSD, BB with maybe 22 reversal, Boss also with 22 reversal and closed outside the old WCC, worker now under shadow, waiting for retrace and then reversal downwards regards Thorsten {image} {image} {image}
Did you close out at the bottom of the Boss shadow as you were planning?
Lots more down move since that time.
Still a good trade if you got out as planned.
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  • #18,360
  • Nov 12, 2024 11:12pm Nov 12, 2024 11:12pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Good analysis but you should be looking at entries before the big move. Example attached for the past several days as well as the longer term move with targets {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Terry, thanks to you and Deichkind that I learned about Rob Smith's TheStrat.
The way I see it, it is another way to look at the price action, aside from the usual one that we have here (hammer, shooting star, etc).
Also I have questions regarding your chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The bottom red box seems to be the SELL and TP area since it is right below shooting star and they are between big boss support. Is it the same with the top red box?
Last question, what does the bottom blue box indicates here?
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