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- #8,441
- Nov 5, 2024 10:00pm Nov 5, 2024 10:00pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
- #8,442
- Nov 5, 2024 11:10pm Nov 5, 2024 11:10pm
- Joined Jul 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,318 Posts
long eurusd 1.0770 SL 1.0714
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
- #8,443
- Nov 5, 2024 11:17pm Nov 5, 2024 11:17pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Liverpool's KOP | 8,028 Posts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
- #8,444
- Nov 5, 2024 11:26pm Nov 5, 2024 11:26pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
{quote} Eu fell over 200pips
Now 1.0800 should cap any advance.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
Any thoughts on how the elections may impact the EU?
1/ Trump win - EU bearish as Dollar continues to rocket given his tariff plan and inflationary narrative
2/ Kamala win - EU bullish as Dollar could normalise into its' undervalued trend, and equities bolstered as big money moves out of cash
3/ Kamala win but Republican refusal to certify win - EU bullish as election moves to Supreme Court & Dollar may plummet as financial markets possibly move into disarray Only thoughts, corrections / additions welcome ...
Don't you know that I'm loco ...
- #8,451
- Nov 6, 2024 12:53am Nov 6, 2024 12:53am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #8,452
- Nov 6, 2024 1:21am Nov 6, 2024 1:21am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
Here a long term view from ING
Another bout of dollar strength
FX markets went into this election pricing a high probability of a Republican clean sweep, with the dollar stronger across the board in October. That reversed a little after weekend polls suggested momentum was swinging toward Harris, but today's show of strength from Trump has sent the dollar 1-2% higher across the board. Protectionism is a given and a negative for the currencies of the Rest of the World. But whether it is a clean sweep or a Democratic House will have an impact on risk assets and the relative performance in the currency universe.
This is a negative outcome for EUR/USD, where rate spreads are widening against the euro and a new risk premium will need to be added in for protectionism and potentially geopolitical risk too. 1.05 looks the immediate target over the coming weeks, but a move to parity may need to wait until later in 2025 when the full force of the protectionist blast becomes clear. And failure for the Republicans to win the House would demand an even more negative EUR/USD scenario, where world growth would not be able to enjoy as much support given the potential scaling back of prospective Trump tax cuts
https://think.ing.com/articles/trump...e-with-a-cost/
Seems like a double edged sword
Another bout of dollar strength
FX markets went into this election pricing a high probability of a Republican clean sweep, with the dollar stronger across the board in October. That reversed a little after weekend polls suggested momentum was swinging toward Harris, but today's show of strength from Trump has sent the dollar 1-2% higher across the board. Protectionism is a given and a negative for the currencies of the Rest of the World. But whether it is a clean sweep or a Democratic House will have an impact on risk assets and the relative performance in the currency universe.
This is a negative outcome for EUR/USD, where rate spreads are widening against the euro and a new risk premium will need to be added in for protectionism and potentially geopolitical risk too. 1.05 looks the immediate target over the coming weeks, but a move to parity may need to wait until later in 2025 when the full force of the protectionist blast becomes clear. And failure for the Republicans to win the House would demand an even more negative EUR/USD scenario, where world growth would not be able to enjoy as much support given the potential scaling back of prospective Trump tax cuts
https://think.ing.com/articles/trump...e-with-a-cost/
Seems like a double edged sword
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #8,454
- Nov 6, 2024 1:41am Nov 6, 2024 1:41am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
{quote} i do agree with reasoning in the short term. But in the long term.. not really. Anyway when do we know about the states that are left?
Last time the results came out Saturday!
If a red sweep then a possible gap down at Monday! If not I expect a bounce first before all longer term news are priced in.
Watching and acting!
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- #8,457
- Nov 6, 2024 9:15am Nov 6, 2024 9:15am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,454 Posts
The EURUSD is currently trading above 1.0700 after briefly dipping below 1.0682. It reached a high of 1.0745 and now aims to break above the 1.0780/94 zone.
Right now, the trend is in a downward phase, and I expect more downward pressure. However, we need to consider the Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts, and happy trading!
Right now, the trend is in a downward phase, and I expect more downward pressure. However, we need to consider the Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts, and happy trading!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
