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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #9,041
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:10pm Jul 23, 2007 8:10pm
5 wave pattern, 4 can't overlap/close beyond 2 to confirm, fifth is .618, 1, 1.618, 2.618 of length of 3 above low of 4.

targets in this case:

~ 250.62
~251.90
~253.95
~ 257.28

supports the bear trap of the fouth wave in this case, with fifth wave extension projections.

Now, what to play? Look for close below wave 2, for the bearish alt, or wait for first small impulse pattern on the 1st wave of wave 5?

A close below the trand line, would probably invalidate the wave count in question, then test the support of the previous charts, white line. The first chart can definitely be used to identify stalling points on the lower side. How are you guys analyzing this? This is what I'm seeing, lets see where you are coming from. Cheers!
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  • #9,042
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:12pm Jul 23, 2007 8:12pm
Some scalpers trade this 5 SMA price retracements...after a big spike. I would not reccomend it to any newbies as you are taking positions against the trend.. If you are doing it for scalping your timing has to be spot on..
  • #9,043
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:17pm Jul 23, 2007 8:17pm
support all over the place. stops below could bring an acceleration on a break through, then a retest could be an enter on a short. However, this could also be the point where the trap occurs, then rockets up through the stops on the short side, and continues on with the last push up...

tough one to analyze man.
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  • #9,044
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:31pm Jul 23, 2007 8:31pm
Any one using VT Trader charts?
  • #9,045
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:33pm Jul 23, 2007 8:33pm
the crosses are a matter of serious concern now...they should have receovered by this time but they havent....surprising....
  • #9,046
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:34pm Jul 23, 2007 8:34pm
Can you post some screenshots of different time frames to prove that? It would be very interesting.
  • #9,047
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:40pm Jul 23, 2007 8:40pm
On this occassion dont be suprise if the price retrace back to 249.10ish where the 1hr 5MA. this doesnt mean the trend is bullish. It's just retraced backk to where the true price is... I usually use the 1hr 5 SMA retracement to enter the market ... and go short ( 4hr trend)
  • #9,048
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:40pm Jul 23, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting auslanco
Any one using VT Trader charts?
I have VT trader, What do you want to see? BR
  • #9,049
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:42pm Jul 23, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting bluerose
I have VT trader, What do you want to see? BR

Great BR... you have the best charting on this planet ... ok get that momentum indicator out....
  • #9,050
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:45pm Jul 23, 2007 8:45pm
My resistance is trend line at the bottom, and seems like another small(minimum) sell is setting up
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  • #9,051
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:47pm Jul 23, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting bluerose
I have VT trader, What do you want to see? BR

You will see when the momentum indicator below the 50 line... which means the momentum is bullish .... and if you check the 1hr chart now there's a sudden bent towards upwards after your momentum indicator pointing down. Momentum indicator always give us the trend in advance. as soon as it bends towards the opposite direction thats when the retracement starts. so you know the retracemnts up to 5SMA happens in advance .
  • #9,052
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:47pm Jul 23, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting auslanco
Great BR... you have the best charting on this planet ... ok get that momentum indicator out....

On the 4H chart:

 

  1. the MACD has not changed direction (still downward)
  2. CCI turn South (good for downward)
  3. Momentum: go down then FLAT at 1.75 (not good)

I can look at other TF?

BR

  • #9,053
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:51pm Jul 23, 2007 8:51pm
Quoting auslanco
You will see when the momentum indicator below the 50 line... which means the momentum is bullish .... and if you check the 1hr chart now there's a sudden bent towards upwards after your momentum indicator pointing down. Momentum indicator always give us the trend in advance. as soon as it bends towards the opposite direction thats when the retracement starts. so you know the retracemnts up to 5SMA happens in advance .
Cool! I look at the 1H TF, it is excactly as I describe ...BR
  • #9,054
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:53pm Jul 23, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting bluerose
On the 4H chart:

  1. the MACD has not changed direction (still downward)
  2. CCI turn South (good for downward)
  3. Momentum: go down then FLAT at 1.75 (not good)

I can look at other TF?

BR

Are you using the momentum indicator ... with default settings?.. it really doesnt matter at what point it stands... The most important this to look at on the momentum indicator is which way it's pointing and whether it's above or below 50 line. Remember this momentum indicator only works well when there is volatality in the market and just after a big spike or news event etc.
  • #9,055
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:00pm Jul 23, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting auslanco
Are you using the momentum indicator ... with default settings?.. it really doesnt matter at what point it stands... The most important this to look at on the momentum indicator is which way it's pointing and whether it's above or below 50 line. Remember this momentum indicator only works well when there is volatality in the market and just after a big spike or news event etc.
OK 1H chart, default Momentum indicator is below 50 line and pointing north. Is it good or bad for your purpose? I hope it is good! Best, BR
  • #9,056
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:01pm Jul 23, 2007 9:01pm
Did you see the daily momentum ... its pointing up and above 50.

Thats why we saw price jumped up back to where it is now... cause the pair dosent have the support from the daily momentum.. Thats why I asked people to have adequate stop loss when I made the short call because there will sudden spikes upwards... but overall the trend is very much bearish.. but it's going to be a slow ride downwards
  • #9,057
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:04pm Jul 23, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting bluerose
OK 1H chart, default Momentum indicator is below 50 line and pointing north. Is it good or bad for your purpose? I hope it is good! Best, BR

pointing north means the price retracing to 5 SMA.. if the indicator crosses above 50 thats when you have to be concerned. The momentum indicator always give us a warning at the start of the each time frame in advance. so you may want to see whats the momentum will be @ the start of next hourley bar.
  • #9,058
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:04pm Jul 23, 2007 9:04pm
Thanks for the trading method, auslanco. I learn a lot.
  • #9,059
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:08pm Jul 23, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting auslanco
Did you see the daily momentum ... its pointing up and above 50.

Thats why we saw price jumped up back to where it is now... cause the pair dosent have the support from the daily momentum.. Thats why I asked people to have adequate stop loss when I made the short call because there will sudden spikes upwards... but overall the trend is very much bearish.. but it's going to be a slow ride downwards
I see on the daily chart what you describe here...So, should the short folks bail out or stick to their guns? Regards

BR
  • #9,060
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:08pm Jul 23, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting banzai
Thanks for the trading method, auslanco. I learn a lot.
No probs banzai... anytime
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