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  • #8,381
  • Nov 1, 2024 11:30am Nov 1, 2024 11:30am
waiting for CISD to go long at 1.08396 along side with the breaker block of 1H. if complete displacement below, is that when I should be looking short?
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  • #8,382
  • Nov 1, 2024 11:50am Nov 1, 2024 11:50am
The US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report released today came in significantly lower than expected, causing a brief surge in the Euro to above 1.0900. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the Euro quickly retreated below the 1.0852 support level.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations for a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve largely unchanged. Additionally, the upcoming US elections, with a potential Trump victory, are bolstering the US Dollar.

From a technical perspective, the 1.0800 and 1.0900 levels will be crucial for determining the next directional move. A break above 1.0900 could signal a continuation of the upward correction, potentially targeting 1.0940/60. Conversely, a break below 1.0800 could lead to further downside, with 1.0761 - 1.0700 as potential targets.

For now, the market is in a state of indecision, trading between 1.0905 and 1.0861. As the week concludes, traders are likely to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for a clearer directional signal.

Have a great weekend!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,383
  • Edited 12:15pm Nov 1, 2024 11:52am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting friotrades
waiting for CISD to go long at 1.08396 along side with the breaker block of 1H. if complete displacement below, is that when I should be looking short? {image}
If you're going long at this time, I'd keep it below 10pips personally and I'd wait until after 1330 ET to do it.

I can't seem to find the breaker on your screen shot to qualify a move but there is possibility of a correction to 108580 to close a TGIF retracement. Also a lot of relative equal highs (108550, 108576, 108667, 108792) that represent useful price targets but again, this should be after 1330 ET.

There appears to be a lot of hands in the till right now & it's a Friday, so I'd stay clear personally.

Green pips
Don't you know that I'm loco ...
  • #8,384
  • Nov 1, 2024 11:57am Nov 1, 2024 11:57am
Hands in the till ...
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Don't you know that I'm loco ...
  • #8,385
  • Nov 1, 2024 3:29pm Nov 1, 2024 3:29pm
holy shit this was a massive sell off, i guess i should have closed all the longs. If this continues they will take out all my longs and now i have no shorts because i took the rest of the day off.
  • #8,386
  • Nov 2, 2024 3:39am Nov 2, 2024 3:39am
EURUSD is in a clear downtrend since it rejected 1.1214 high. The price has been consistently making lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish sentiment - Daily chart.

The most recent price action seems to be consolidating within a range. There is a potential support zone around the 1.0808 - 1.0761 levels and resistance levels lying above at 1.0905 & 1.1000.

As mentioned above, 1.0808 appears to be a key support level, and a break below it could signal further downside. On the upside, 1.0905 acts as resistance, and a break above it could indicate a potential continuation of the correction up towards 1.1000.

Have a great weekend!

Weekly volatility (range) 188 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0820 (EU1.36b), 1.0970 (EU1.04b), 1.1250 (EU899.6m) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Factory Orders, US Election (All Day), US Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Interest Rate Decision & University Michigan Sentiment Prelim.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,387
  • Nov 2, 2024 3:13pm Nov 2, 2024 3:13pm
As you say JS, a BIG week ahead ... I'll be watching on with my accounts CLOSED - all week ...

On Daily TF, Friday was pure manipulation in my view .

Outlook for the week ... No freakin idea . Indicators, price action, fundamentals, all off the table in my book. The puppet masters are in town.

Good luck those braving the markets
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Don't you know that I'm loco ...
  • #8,388
  • Nov 2, 2024 3:37pm Nov 2, 2024 3:37pm
Inserted Video
  • #8,389
  • Nov 2, 2024 5:14pm Nov 2, 2024 5:14pm
with the results of the US election on Nov 5th it can be crazy times if Trump wins, everything else should take a backbeat to it in my opinion, or not well see.

I don't think you can forecast this week
  • #8,390
  • Nov 2, 2024 5:31pm Nov 2, 2024 5:31pm
Quoting T721
https://youtu.be/CB9IN2MYhIk?si=bms9M7AFWGSQyUX4
That guy and a couple guys from forex.com YT give some pretty good technical info on a weekly basis
Just enough to keep you thinking, remind yourself of the bigger picture and things to keep in mind.
Same as this thread often does but the videos helps a lot too.
Consistency is key
  • #8,391
  • Nov 3, 2024 1:56am Nov 3, 2024 1:56am
Quoting RedAllOver
As you say JS, a BIG week ahead ... I'll be watching on with my accounts CLOSED - all week ... On Daily TF, Friday was pure manipulation in my view . Outlook for the week ... No freakin idea . Indicators, price action, fundamentals, all off the table in my book. The puppet masters are in town. Good luck those braving the markets {image}
I completely understand your sentiment, Red. The market has been quite volatile lately, and it's wise to take a step back and reassess the situation.

Perhaps focusing on longer-term trends or swing trading might be a more suitable approach during this period of uncertainty.

I'm also keeping a close eye on the market, but I'm not planning to take any significant positions this week.

Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,392
  • Nov 3, 2024 4:33pm Nov 3, 2024 4:33pm
just closed all my longs, nice profit at market open. not sure what happened but thanks. I was afraid they would all be taken out but i'm on fire i guess
Now i will wait for the elections with no positions and small bets. I don't trust this market.
  • #8,393
  • Nov 3, 2024 6:14pm Nov 3, 2024 6:14pm
Quoting Polimini
just closed all my longs, nice profit at market open. not sure what happened but thanks. I was afraid they would all be taken out but i'm on fire i guess Now i will wait for the elections with no positions and small bets. I don't trust this market.
hey it might be a wise decosion to stay out until dust is settled!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #8,394
  • Nov 3, 2024 6:34pm Nov 3, 2024 6:34pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} hey it might be a wise decosion to stay out until dust is settled!
that true. 2016 with 200 pips gap up
  • #8,395
  • Nov 3, 2024 10:34pm Nov 3, 2024 10:34pm
The EURUSD currency pair is up this week after a strong opening. It appears that traders were taking profits ahead of the US elections. If the EURUSD can break above the resistance level of 1.0905, it could move higher to the 1.0940/1.0960 resistance zone. However, if it fails to hold above the support level of 1.0860, it could fall to the Friday low of 1.0832 or even lower to 1.0808.

Have a great week!

Daily volatility (range) 86 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0820 (EU1.36b), 1.0970 (EU1.04b), 1.1250 (EU899.6m) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Factory Orders

1 hour
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,396
  • Edited 1:07am Nov 4, 2024 12:02am | Edited 1:07am
Bulls should take out the high of 1.0905 the bounce is strong in an uncertain week. The election week gap maybe late to be filled after a big move up. I see a possible retrace to 1.1000.

Trade small lots with stop-loss orders.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,397
  • Nov 4, 2024 12:22am Nov 4, 2024 12:22am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Bulls should take out the high of 1.0905 the bounce is strong in an uncertain week. Election week gaps maybe late to be filled after a big move up. I see a possible retrace to 1.1000. Trade small lots with stop-loss orders.
while under 0920 bear is not dead! At some point the gap needs to be filled!

though i do get mixed signals so it can go either way!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #8,398
  • Nov 4, 2024 12:38am Nov 4, 2024 12:38am
Quoting johncen
{quote} while under 0920 bear is not dead! At some point the gap needs to be filled! though i do get mixed signals so it can go either way!
Correct, we can't be sure for a bullish rally. But support should hold. 1.0845 and 1.0832 are crucial levels.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #8,399
  • Nov 4, 2024 3:51am Nov 4, 2024 3:51am
i don't think it can get away with leaving that gap behind. I had a plan, i was bullish, i wanted to leave some shorts behind, now i'm all over the place and i still don't trust the elections tomorrow. I guess scalping only lets see.
  • #8,400
  • Nov 4, 2024 3:58am Nov 4, 2024 3:58am
Any thoughts on how the elections may impact the EU?

1/ Trump win - EU bearish as Dollar continues to rocket given his tariff plan and inflationary narrative
2/ Kamala win - EU bullish as Dollar could normalise into its' undervalued trend, and equities bolstered as big money moves out of cash
3/ Kamala win but Republican refusal to certify win - EU bullish as election moves to Supreme Court & Dollar may plummet as financial markets possibly move into disarray

Only thoughts , corrections / additions welcome ...
Don't you know that I'm loco ...
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