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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #9,941
  • Nov 1, 2024 2:58pm Nov 1, 2024 2:58pm
A good week overall. Busy doing normal work stuff and making some time to fit some trading in where I can.
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  • #9,942
  • Nov 3, 2024 2:36pm Nov 3, 2024 2:36pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
A good week overall. Busy doing normal work stuff and making some time to fit some trading in where I can. {image}
Some of my better trades this week.
On Thurs went long around our trading time. M15 above the EMA target the previous EMA swing high. M5 divergence at this same point also M15 in divergence so closed out for +19
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  • #9,943
  • Nov 3, 2024 2:54pm Nov 3, 2024 2:54pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Some of my better trades this week. On Thurs went long around our trading time. M15 above the EMA target the previous EMA swing high. M5 divergence at this same point also M15 in divergence so closed out for +19 {image}
Continuing on with Thurs trades. We see another test of the M15 EMA swing high forming a hidden divergence so bias is heading for a short. Spotted a couple of Bear supports on the M5 so jumped in with a tester short and put a SL above the swing high level. Dang thing almost stopped me out with yet another test of the EMA swing level before the big crash down. Jumped in with another short and both got stopped out with my trailing stop. Placed a pending short below the M5 low in case it dropped again, which it did and then closed that trade on the M15 divergence at the bottom.
1st trade +49
2nd trade +42
3rd trade +33
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  • #9,944
  • Nov 5, 2024 2:32am Nov 5, 2024 2:32am
Bit dead this week. Are we waiting on some American news maybe?
  • #9,945
  • Nov 5, 2024 5:36am Nov 5, 2024 5:36am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Bit dead this week. Are we waiting on some American news maybe?
It's not so bad. I have made +1 pip today.
  • #9,946
  • Nov 8, 2024 12:59pm Nov 8, 2024 12:59pm
Guys,
Been avoiding trading this week because of US elections. Anyway survived with a +2% profit.
My advice for what its worth is see it for what it is. We are trying to predict the future and this thing can go either way, up or down. Nala has kindly given us an edge to predict where GU is heading. If you see an EMA break with a support candle confirmed then the target is the last EMA swing. The support candle closes are strong SR and if these fail then the pair is making a HH or LL usually. Determine your target and if you cant then get to BE as a minimum. Daily open price is also strong SR.
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  • #9,947
  • Nov 8, 2024 1:54pm Nov 8, 2024 1:54pm
Overview of the week at our trade time. Monday we have Bear divergence, this thing is going down. Target the last EMA swing 60 pips away or a bit further we have 72 pips away. We have the H4 EMA in the way tho so could be a BE trade. Tuesday H4 EMA proves too tough so its going for a HH probably the daily EMA (target hit). Bear divergence at the daily EMA so the Bias is down yet again. Wednesday Bull divergence, this thing is going up. Target is 140 pips away so could take a while. Thursday still in the trade (target hit). Friday we have Bear divergence, wonder where its going? target 50 pips away.
Of course we get trades moved to BE that get kicked out but we go again with the same target and try to avoid news spikes.
Easy in hindsight. Keep at it guys
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  • #9,948
  • Nov 11, 2024 1:23am Nov 11, 2024 1:23am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Guys, Been avoiding trading this week because of US elections. Anyway survived with a +2% profit. My advice for what its worth is see it for what it is. We are trying to predict the future and this thing can go either way, up or down. Nala has kindly given us an edge to predict where GU is heading. If you see an EMA break with a support candle confirmed then the target is the last EMA swing. The support candle closes are strong SR and if these fail then the pair is making a HH or LL usually. Determine your target and if you cant then get to BE as...
Gee, unlike you I traded quite a bit this last week and made many pips profit. The moves were big and even the counter moves were big also.
  • #9,949
  • Nov 12, 2024 7:53am Nov 12, 2024 7:53am
These few days I start to practice with hedge, I success when enter some hedge but failed to know where to remove it ( assuming that price continued with prior direction). Do you have any advice, Alan?
  • #9,950
  • Nov 14, 2024 6:05am Nov 14, 2024 6:05am
Quoting Fiona96
These few days I start to practice with hedge, I success when enter some hedge but failed to know where to remove it ( assuming that price continued with prior direction). Do you have any advice, Alan?
I wouldn't bother hedging if I were you because lack of experience can get you into a lot of trouble.

Stick to the basics of average swing levels. They are far easier to deal with.

Look here at the 1-hour chart... clear as mud hey!
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Now if hedging your primary trade has to be on the correct side... In this case short.

Your counter trades being hedges are placed to protect you from a turn around to the upside. This is very difficult to do, you have to watch the hedge carefully as it approaches the swing high EMA's. You can see that in the chart the red line EMA swing are the bounce points back to the short direction.

Hope this helps

PS Sorry I am late, been a tad busy.
  • #9,951
  • Nov 14, 2024 6:10am Nov 14, 2024 6:10am
This last target hit was done in bull div so watch out for an up move.
  • #9,952
  • Nov 15, 2024 12:36am Nov 15, 2024 12:36am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I wouldn't bother hedging if I were you because lack of experience can get you into a lot of trouble. Stick to the basics of average swing levels. They are far easier to deal with. Look here at the 1-hour chart... clear as mud hey! {image} Now if hedging your primary trade has to be on the correct side... In this case short. Your counter trades being hedges are placed to protect you from a turn around to the upside. This is very difficult to do, you have to watch the hedge carefully as it approaches the swing high EMA's. You can see that...
Thank you so much Alan, it helps a tons.
Also, these days I pops up with some new problems, if at the lower times frame (e.g 1H) are expected to form an AB = CD (price to go down) but from the higher timeframes (e.g 4H) see somes RSI div that expected to return price to the EMA (price go up), in such this situation does price always fullfill it journey from lower time frames then continues to the higher timeframes, right?
  • #9,953
  • Nov 15, 2024 1:57pm Nov 15, 2024 1:57pm
Been struggling this week when GU is trending strong. Obvious downtrend so should have been selling all week but I find myself counter trend trading when I see the bull divergence only to hit BE or a loss. Also still playing with hedging with some varying success like Fiona96. Luckily I have pending shorts below the divergence point with bigger lots than I should do to save my week. Spotting when to get back in the trend seems to be a major issue for me as it could also be the reversal point. Basically been gambling all week and I am not happy with this outcome.
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  • #9,954
  • Nov 16, 2024 3:53pm Nov 16, 2024 3:53pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Been struggling this week when GU is trending strong. Obvious downtrend so should have been selling all week but I find myself counter trend trading when I see the bull divergence only to hit BE or a loss. Also still playing with hedging with some varying success like Fiona96. Luckily I have pending shorts below the divergence point with bigger lots than I should do to save my week. Spotting when to get back in the trend seems to be a major issue for me as it could also be the reversal point. Basically been gambling all week and I am not happy with...
Lets do some hindsight investigations for the week. I am hoping the more chart checking I do will help it sink in.
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Monday:- At our trade time we have a break of a previous EMA swing with restest and Bear divergence. Target is approx 60 pips away.
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Tuesday:- At our Trade time we have a swing up to retest the previous target along with Bear divergence. Target is approx 50 pips away.
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Thursday:- At out trade time we see Hidden Divergence at a previous EMA swing point. Target is approx 40 pips away.
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Friday:- A bit trickier with not much to see on M15 chart. On the M5 at our trade time we have bear divergence to take us short. Target is approx 30 pips away which fails to hit and we get bull divergence. This is where Nala hedges long but we can also close the short and place a long trade on. Bear divergence again at a Previous EMA swing to take us short again. Target is approx 40 pips away.

Still looking at the Wednesday chart.
  • #9,955
  • Nov 18, 2024 6:45am Nov 18, 2024 6:45am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Thank you so much Alan, it helps a tons. Also, these days I pops up with some new problems, if at the lower times frame (e.g 1H) are expected to form an AB = CD (price to go down) but from the higher timeframes (e.g 4H) see somes RSI div that expected to return price to the EMA (price go up), in such this situation does price always fullfill it journey from lower time frames then continues to the higher timeframes, right?
If we have a conflict like this look for the signals on the lower time frame to take price in the direction of the higher time frame. Sometimes it may well be that we have to wait a while but better to wait than to have a big drawdown.

Consider this 4-hour chart showing a Possible AB=CD.

On a couple of occasions price tested the 50% level (ZOO level). Both made 50 pips in quite a short time i.e. 4hours..

At the ZOO level we would be looking at the lower time frames to find an entry.

The 4-hour chart is not one I would trade because reaching the target can take a long time but that doesn't mean I don't look for ZOO opportunities there.
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I like to trade in the busy periods and watch the EMA swing levels. See how if the EMA is to pass level A the price should reach level B which paid 50 pips twice.

I haven't got a clue what is going on now, it appears there is little market interest. So, sit on hands and wait.
  • #9,956
  • Nov 18, 2024 6:52am Nov 18, 2024 6:52am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Been struggling this week when GU is trending strong. Obvious downtrend so should have been selling all week but I find myself counter trend trading when I see the bull divergence only to hit BE or a loss. Also still playing with hedging with some varying success like Fiona96. Luckily I have pending shorts below the divergence point with bigger lots than I should do to save my week. Spotting when to get back in the trend seems to be a major issue for me as it could also be the reversal point. Basically been gambling all week and I am not happy with...
It shouldn't matter in the slightest if it is the reversal point because your initial entry should be small and so you get stopped out for little losses. Taking signals then in the direction of the trend means you can compound your winnings with additional entries. Keep the math on your side.
  • #9,957
  • Nov 19, 2024 9:17am Nov 19, 2024 9:17am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} It shouldn't matter in the slightest if it is the reversal point because your initial entry should be small and so you get stopped out for little losses. Taking signals then in the direction of the trend means you can compound your winnings with additional entries. Keep the math on your side.
Thanks Alan for your advice, I succeed in placing my trading to accomplished ABCD target. But still not 100% know the way to identify AB = CD target till the price retest next level of Swing (assuming that I have closed the previous entry).
  • #9,958
  • Nov 20, 2024 3:01am Nov 20, 2024 3:01am
The art of analysis... 15-min chart.
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This is the method I use to plot my work.
  • #9,959
  • Nov 20, 2024 7:53am Nov 20, 2024 7:53am
Quoting Nala66
The art of analysis... 15-min chart. {image} This is the method I use to plot my work.
Yeh, thank you for take it again but I mean what I find difficult is (AB = CD) meaning Continual div, I find it hard to find A,B point and then C not always at the 50% level, C could be near 50% level. Then along the way there have been other A'B' = C'D' ( AB = CD in another big AB = CD) how can you tracking all of that ?
  • #9,960
  • Nov 20, 2024 8:40am Nov 20, 2024 8:40am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Yeh, thank you for take it again but I mean what I find difficult is (AB = CD) meaning Continual div, I find it hard to find A,B point and then C not always at the 50% level, C could be near 50% level. Then along the way there have been other A'B' = C'D' ( AB = CD in another big AB = CD) how can you tracking all of that ?
Well, I don't actually track all that. What I am looking at is the average swings, then I look at the potential signals that take me there.

Remember always, when the market is seen to be weak in one direction by the failing of the EMA to make the next HH or LL it will test the opposite direction.

It has always done this and will always continue to do so.

In other words, until price fails in one direction it will continue and will not test the opposite direction.

This is also relative to the time frame we are working with. For example, at the 1-min level we see many changes in direction, the higher the time frame the less changes we see as they slowly go about their business.
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