The moment of truth 
- #862
- Nov 1, 2024 11:23am Nov 1, 2024 11:23am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,915 Posts
The moment of truth
- #866
- Nov 1, 2024 11:42am Nov 1, 2024 11:42am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,915 Posts
{quote} I took long after morning breakout and keep it. {image}
- #872
- Nov 3, 2024 7:59am Nov 3, 2024 7:59am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,915 Posts
Good week!
Upcoming Week Analysis
FA Analysis:
Very important week ahead of us:
1- Tuesday: US Elections with major uncertainty on the outcome. As mentioned before:
a- Trump winning, uncertainty and risk will be cleared instantly and Equities will seek a new ATH;
b- Harris winning with clear majority, same as (a);
c- Harris winning with tight majority, uncertainty and risk are maintained and equities will drop until final decision.
2- Thursday: FED Meeting
FED is very happy with the macro economic data: Recession is completely out from the horizon.
FED is happy with inflation returning to normalization.
Hence FED will confirm the stance of rate cut cycle and give greenlight to equities to skyrocket.
3- Happy 4th Quarter: We're at the happiest season with the coming holidays and consumer spendings.... Stocks and equities will anticipate another green earnings after the current strong earnings for most and major stocks.
So all FA data converge towards a new ATH on equities; the only refrain is the immediate outcome of Tuesday.
TA Analysis:
Weekly:
NQ provided a red weekly candle with no brake but extension only.
We have two scenarios linked to US Elections uncertainty. For both scenarios, I expect a drop, then a new ATH.
Daily:
NQ broke the last resistance and made a new LL. I expect price to make a LH on Monday and a new LL before the end of US Elections. Based on the results (see above a, b and c), price will behave. If uncertainty and risk are out, price won't wait for the FED, it will move up...
Hope you enjoy your weekend and have a green upcoming week! GL!
Upcoming Week Analysis
FA Analysis:
Very important week ahead of us:
1- Tuesday: US Elections with major uncertainty on the outcome. As mentioned before:
a- Trump winning, uncertainty and risk will be cleared instantly and Equities will seek a new ATH;
b- Harris winning with clear majority, same as (a);
c- Harris winning with tight majority, uncertainty and risk are maintained and equities will drop until final decision.
2- Thursday: FED Meeting
FED is very happy with the macro economic data: Recession is completely out from the horizon.
FED is happy with inflation returning to normalization.
Hence FED will confirm the stance of rate cut cycle and give greenlight to equities to skyrocket.
3- Happy 4th Quarter: We're at the happiest season with the coming holidays and consumer spendings.... Stocks and equities will anticipate another green earnings after the current strong earnings for most and major stocks.
So all FA data converge towards a new ATH on equities; the only refrain is the immediate outcome of Tuesday.
TA Analysis:
Weekly:
NQ provided a red weekly candle with no brake but extension only.
We have two scenarios linked to US Elections uncertainty. For both scenarios, I expect a drop, then a new ATH.
Daily:
NQ broke the last resistance and made a new LL. I expect price to make a LH on Monday and a new LL before the end of US Elections. Based on the results (see above a, b and c), price will behave. If uncertainty and risk are out, price won't wait for the FED, it will move up...
Hope you enjoy your weekend and have a green upcoming week! GL!
- #875
- Nov 4, 2024 5:18am Nov 4, 2024 5:18am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,915 Posts
Good Day!
Based on my weekly analysis, I'm looking for the price to make LH in order to go short for a new LL before the release of US Elections.
Both Asian and Europe sessions were compressing and consolidating. In the current context of uncertainty and Low liquidity, it's better to stay a side or go for a quick in and out with limited STP and TP.
Based on my weekly analysis, I'm looking for the price to make LH in order to go short for a new LL before the release of US Elections.
Both Asian and Europe sessions were compressing and consolidating. In the current context of uncertainty and Low liquidity, it's better to stay a side or go for a quick in and out with limited STP and TP.
Possible range up to 20240 but it's climbing a wall of fear
- #879
- Nov 4, 2024 8:34pm Nov 4, 2024 8:34pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,165 Posts
{quote} It won't until US Election is cleared with a clear winner. US election is bringing a high uncertainty on who will be the winner and with how much marge. As Fool mentioned in his message, a close results might be rejected by Trump if he's not the winner; thus is the risk of uncertainty. This uncertainty has created a low liquidity until the clearance of it. With a clear and net outcome, Equities will seek a new ATH supported by strong earnings and stable macro economic data.
Expecting October volatility, I was way too early positioning NDX and QQQ trades, but I have done ok. I am still in NDX Nov8/11 19000 calendar puts - I have closed over 2/3 of them for an average profit of about $8, and I am left with the 3 shown, which I will let run til Wednesday, at least...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #880
- Nov 4, 2024 8:40pm Nov 4, 2024 8:40pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,165 Posts
I am set up with double calendars in SPX for the Nov8/Nov11 play - SPX and NDX are quite well correlated. To catch something to the upside in the Nasdaq, I am in the QQQ diagonal calls shown, which cost almost nothing to enter. If we get QQQ over $495 by Friday, I will make some money.... Buckle up and good luck traders, if we are going to get a range break finally, it should be happening in the next week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake