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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,941
  • Jul 23, 2007 11:53am Jul 23, 2007 11:53am
Quoting markam
hell yea I'm short. My prediction is a 3,000-4,000 pip drop in the next 5 months.
I wasn't planning to pay swap for 5months... looking for a dip over the next few days.
Craazy
  • #8,942
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:23pm Jul 23, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting mrroboto
Just a piece of advice from one human being to another, do not short this pair. I've been there before trying to catch all the moves long or short but I tell you this pair is a beast and if you dont know what you're doing you can blow up alot of accounts. Been there done that. You have a lot more going for you if you go long. The swaps alone are very profitable. What you need to do is have a trading plan everytime you trade, dont follow the trades posted on this thread, you can hit some good advice but for the most part you'll get terrible advice, and terrible advice can be expensive. Trade only when you know what you're doing. Not shorting this pair is half the battle, if you can control your greed and emotions you already made a profit.

nothing to add.......
  • #8,943
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:26pm Jul 23, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting markam
hell yea I'm short. My prediction is a 3,000-4,000 pip drop in the next 5 months.
are u serious? 3k-4k drop in the next 5 months
  • #8,944
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:41pm Jul 23, 2007 12:41pm
minimum drop. Significant chance of a 10k drop.
  • #8,945
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:49pm Jul 23, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting markam
minimum drop. Significant chance of a 10k drop.
You do mean the GBP/JPY??
  • #8,946
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:52pm Jul 23, 2007 12:52pm
And in case you are wondering, here is my reasoning.

Look at G/Y prior to beginning of 2006 and extrapolate out the 4 years prior to that to get where we should be right now (~210)

Look at G/Y last time it was this high (early 90s). We had a 6k drop in a few months and a total of about 11k over about 3 years.

Finally, england is in serious trouble. Their real estate is even more out of whack than the States. Oil production is dropping like a rock and their trade deficit is going to kill them. With the weak dollar, they will lose a lot of tourism money. Basically, they will be going down the tubes and taking the pound with them.

This analysis ignores the fact that Japan cannot allow the yen to continue to weaken and will have to take steps this fall. Add the two together, and you get big time G/Y drop.
  • #8,947
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:31pm Jul 23, 2007 1:31pm
haha, i find a sterategy
  • #8,948
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:01pm Jul 23, 2007 2:01pm
Well I was looking at charts and found one interesting thing. well lets be specific to GBP/yen although it is applicable to almost all crosses against yen that
"Whenever there was a big bull rally in GBP/yen it was reversed in Mid-August to September From September onward there is a significant drop even below the start of original bull rally"

Is this just a coincidence or there is a significant reason for that?

Can the history repeat itself for current rally?

Do comment
  • #8,949
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:12pm Jul 23, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting persian.forex
haha, i find a sterategy
Mind to tell?
  • #8,950
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:37pm Jul 23, 2007 2:37pm
Disappointed with G/J
what's the next step ,up or down!
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #8,951
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:44pm Jul 23, 2007 2:44pm
Hi good morning everyone(from Sydney)..
Hopefully we will see that big fat Bear today
  • #8,952
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:49pm Jul 23, 2007 2:49pm
Quoting Dobin
Disappointed with G/J
what's the next step ,up or down!
Just pik one and u'll find the analyis to support ur choice....or was it the othe way round?
  • #8,953
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:50pm Jul 23, 2007 2:50pm
Today might be alot better day than yesterday. The 1hr is nicely froming a bearish attack... thiis is what I have been waiting for from yesterday.
  • #8,954
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:57pm Jul 23, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting auslanco
Today might be alot better day than yesterday. The 1hr is nicely froming a bearish attack... thiis is what I have been waiting for from yesterday.
please show your charts
Don't be panic when it's negative
  • #8,955
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:57pm Jul 23, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting auslanco
Today might be alot better day than yesterday. The 1hr is nicely froming a bearish attack... thiis is what I have been waiting for from yesterday.
So's the 4H MACD
  • #8,956
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:58pm Jul 23, 2007 2:58pm
For all Mr LONGS.. I have been trading this pair every single day for the last 2 and a half years. I have bought two houses and a nice fancy car just by trading GBP/JPY. So may be I know something what I'm talking about. Unless you are willing to take atleast 500 pip drawdown in the next few days... please think twice about your long positions.
  • #8,957
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:59pm Jul 23, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting auslanco
Today might be alot better day than yesterday. The 1hr is nicely froming a bearish attack... thiis is what I have been waiting for from yesterday.
u mind showing that chart
  • #8,958
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:02pm Jul 23, 2007 3:02pm
Quoting Timingy
So's the 4H MACD
Yehhh 4hr (from yeaterday) and daily (from the 11th) was bearish . just didnt have the 1 hr support all alone. Now it's nicely forming down. Hopefully it will turn bear by early Tokyo. Then we will see Michael Schumaker>>>
  • #8,959
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:04pm Jul 23, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting chonpz
u mind showing that chart

Unfortunatley.. I hve this problem of posting my charts . I got 3 screens and when ever I capture a screen shot it gives me 3 different screens. Does anyone know how to fix this?
  • #8,960
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:07pm Jul 23, 2007 3:07pm
Those who wants to go short.... wait untill it firmly breaks 248.50.. then we have a trend confirmation
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