did the Euro/USD posted its top today? | Forex Factory

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did the Euro/USD posted its top today?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 23, 2007 12:39pm Jul 23, 2007 12:39pm
many reports from respected banks and firms see the euro/usd at 1.42+, but i think the market is exhausted . for the past few days, the lack of significant fresh buyers put the market an hesitated position, which will lead to profit taking waves pushing the euro down 300 to 400 points.
ADFC report was expecting th eeuro to top around 1.3840, hope they are correct, because i'm heavy short the euro/USD. to see the report click here
  • #2
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:17pm Jul 23, 2007 1:17pm
well i still se the uptrend why fight it ??? printed a new high for the year but i have learned some lessons selling tops or buy bottoms, stay with trend until it bends is a good strategy good luck


revoke
  • #3
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:25pm Jul 23, 2007 1:25pm
Nobody knows
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4
  • Edited 2:02pm Jul 23, 2007 1:38pm | Edited 2:02pm
I hope your heavy shorts are based on your own system, not those funny "reports". It is a dangerous sign that you start to collect evidence in favor of your positions.

Good luck.
凹凸 only
  • #5
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:49pm Jul 23, 2007 1:49pm
Quoting boramor
many reports from respected banks and firms see the euro/usd at 1.42+, but i think the market is exhausted . for the past few days, the lack of significant fresh buyers put the market an hesitated position, which will lead to profit taking waves pushing the euro down 300 to 400 points.
ADFC report was expecting th eeuro to top around 1.3840, hope they are correct, because i'm heavy short the euro/USD. to see the report click here
So you were short since this article from 14 th July?
I think the market is expecting one more spike - preferably till 1.3900.
A pullback to around near 1.3776 region is likely before the next spike
  • #6
  • Jul 23, 2007 5:39pm Jul 23, 2007 5:39pm
It looks like an important level. A little down and then perhaps around 1.365. But the trend is up so there can be more demand waiting
  • #7
  • Jul 23, 2007 5:55pm Jul 23, 2007 5:55pm
Trading heavily short on "hope" in an uptrend usually soon leaves you short of hope and heavily down.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:49pm Jul 23, 2007 8:49pm
i agree does not make since to go short at this point...wait for a real confirmation of the short trend....PATIENCE people ....so many accounts blown because of lack of patience.
  • #9
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:14am Jul 24, 2007 1:14am
Quoting Samuri
I hope your heavy shorts are based on your own system, not those funny "reports". It is a dangerous sign that you start to collect evidence in favor of your positions.

Good luck.
I trade based on my own trading style, but i felt more confortable when i saw the ADFC report with the same overview,i had the chance to see few ADFC reports, they had very good calls i remember they expected the euro/usd correction from 1.3680 to reach 1.3265 and then rebound for new highs, the euro tested 1.3259 and now it is in 1.38s. also for the pound/usd they expected the 1.9630 to cap the drop and pound to test 2.05-2.06, the low posted was 1.9621 and now cable at 2.06. so i felt confortable when i saw that they have the same outlook, but i don't take position and try to collect evidence. today i was looking at the chart, i see the possibility for one more upside move toward 1.3860-70 before down.
Hope i'm correct
  • #10
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:33am Jul 24, 2007 3:33am
Quoting revoke
well i still se the uptrend why fight it ??? printed a new high for the year but i have learned some lessons selling tops or buy bottoms, stay with trend until it bends is a good strategy good luck


revoke
Yes, this is most conservative trading strategy. But some times, watching price actions can also give some clues. As long as you can make a shot, then go ahead. I don't like restrain yourself too much.
Trading is a business
  • #11
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:09am Jul 24, 2007 4:09am
EUR/USD is not moving perpetually. It ranges from 1.3828 to 1.3809. Is has been quite awhile.
  • #12
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:29am Jul 24, 2007 4:29am
well i am looking from another perspective,...the holly numbers...if u check the chart, u see 1.30 was broken, then it went up to test i dont know 1.34, after that it did one more testing the 1.30 from the upside, after nicely defended it went strait to 1.366, when "sarkozy won," it went down to 1.32 to test the 1.33, it didnt broke it, so it went up again to broke 1.3666, and now it acts as S3 i guess, and aiming to touch 1.400, before testing the lucky number 1.3777 from the upside one more time, then we go straight to 1.4200, and 1.40 will act as support from then on...that are my thoughts.
its just money
  • #13
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:39am Jul 24, 2007 4:39am
Quoting boramor
hope they are correct, because i'm heavy short the euro/USD. to see the report click here
Instead of anticipating the next move, how about if you wait for a confirmation of the reversal? your win/loss ratio will be greatly improved, trust me.
  • #14
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:40am Jul 24, 2007 4:40am
Quoting SeekingLight
Trading heavily short on "hope" in an uptrend usually soon leaves you short of hope and heavily down.
Terrific word-juggling there mate, terrific!!!
  • #15
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:42am Jul 24, 2007 4:42am
The pair will locate on 1.3740-1.3840. But eur grow up and nearest aim is 1.4150.
  • #16
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:07am Jul 24, 2007 8:07am
Quoting boramor
I trade based on my own trading style, but i felt more confortable when i saw the ADFC report with the same overview,i had the chance to see few ADFC reports, they had very good calls i remember they expected the euro/usd correction from 1.3680 to reach 1.3265 and then rebound for new highs, the euro tested 1.3259 and now it is in 1.38s. also for the pound/usd they expected the 1.9630 to cap the drop and pound to test 2.05-2.06, the low posted was 1.9621 and now cable at 2.06. so i felt confortable when i saw that they have the same outlook, but i don't take position and try to collect evidence. today i was looking at the chart, i see the possibility for one more upside move toward 1.3860-70 before down.
Hope i'm correct
one more upleg was needed to complete the diagonal triangle for the extended 5th wave
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  • #17
  • Jul 24, 2007 11:26am Jul 24, 2007 11:26am
euro on track, sofar. needs a close below 1.3775 for confirmation
  • #18
  • Jul 24, 2007 12:51pm Jul 24, 2007 12:51pm
just trade what you SEE not what you expect
  • #19
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:05pm Jul 24, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting boramor
one more upleg was needed to complete the diagonal triangle for the extended 5th wave

I totaly agree. I have been waiting for that last spike up .

Might need a news catalyst to begin the retrace though. Thursday. But by my calculations wednesdays candle should be bearish. There was a zigzag in this top, and wed. is the 5th candle after.


But does any one know, fundamentally, what is the cause of the $'s current weakness?

Dave
  • #20
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:29am Jul 25, 2007 12:29am
with euro/usd bullish sentiment at extreme level, that means most of those who are bullish are long and there is no enough fresh buyers at these levels to push the market much further up. it is a balancing situation and when the bulls realize that market has no enough power to continue up, they will start to take profit and this will attract some fresh bears that will junp in to profit from the profit taking wave which will lead to market drop.
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