ISM Report - Did chicago PMI steal the ISM's thunder?

Like many, I traded the PMI agressively today. Commerzbank stated in their daily currency report that the PMI would be an early indicator of the ISM. If this is the case, How much might be left for the ISM to do it is a similar number to the PMI?

FXO

i dont think so man, i think tomorrow will still bring thunder! like i said in earlier post, this aint about the data anymore. the reaction to chicago PMI today was not driven by the report. big traders (including china) use events like this to mask their operations. this is why i watch for weird moves around news time.

btw, do you know that the ISM is also a PMI (purchasing managers index)? the ISM is a national survey, while the chicago PMI is local to chicago. so this is why people say it is a leading indicator of ISM. chicago also always comes out the day before ISM.

Yes, by definition.

Have you noticed the significants of 115.50 on the USD/JPY on the weekly charts? It seems to be an important number. It often has strong reactions in that area.

FXOpportunist had extensively explained to me the 115.50 USDJPY level some 2 days ago.

I was waiting with a limit buy at 116. But If I hadnt listened to his explanation, I would have been burned again so I removed this order.

USD is very weak. And JPY could not be weaker than but 115.50 is holding.


As for ISM, I hope to see volatility. ISM estimate is pointing for a USD rebound BUT a lot of traders are waiting to sell USD again on rebound which points to a possible muted USD rally. A bad ISM will send it down further; perhaps GBPUSD could climb up to 1.9800.

A lot are dumping USD. But I dont want to be caught long when USD rallies. Only a very strong ISM would bring a rally.

example chart

My Man!

So I am not the only one pouring over charts looking for nuances eh?

I just bought the yen at 115.50 with a tight stop. Let's e what kind of reaction I get.

im always looking for nuances thats for sure. looking for areas where price keeps flipping between s and r and then waiting for a price hint for likely direction is the best "SYSTEM" i have ever found in twenty plus years of searching.

jim in the news forum? i could get to liking this!

well boys, as FXopportunist noted, we could be seeing a crap ISM number today if the chicago PMI is any indication. if the dollar strengthens pre-release, it could be a slam dunk dollar short if the ISM is below 50.

Bernake will say " aww the ecoonomy is fine guys , go ahead spend some money even tho everything is down, really spend money please!!!)

then ism # comes out at 49 or below and GBP skyrockets to 9750

oh btw Newstrader called yesterdays 9700 u da man bro

For all you Newsies:

U.S. ISM Factory Index Probably Held Near 3-Year Low (Update2)


By Courtney Schlisserman

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. held near a three-year low last month as automakers cut back production and the slump in homebuilding hurt demand for construction products, economists said before a private report to be published today.

The Institute for Supply Management will report its manufacturing index for November was at 51.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 70 economists. That compares with October's reading of 51.2, which was the lowest since June 2003.

Manufacturing is providing little momentum for the economy this quarter. The Federal Reserve said earlier this week that it saw ``moderate growth'' in the economy the last two months, helped by gains in consumer spending and ``solid'' expansion in service industries.

``The strength lies outside the manufacturing sector,'' said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``We don't expect the manufacturing sector to necessarily be an engine of growth but we do expect the broader economy to be growing at a pretty good pace.''

The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release its report today at 10 a.m. Washington time. Forecasts of the index reading ranged from 49.5 to 53.6.

European manufacturing expanded for a 17th straight month in November, a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc report showed earlier today. The bank's manufacturing index slipped to 56.6 from October's 57 reading.

A Commerce Department report, also at 10 a.m. in Washington, will say that construction spending fell 0.4 percent in October, following a 0.3 percent decline the month before, according to the survey median.

Home Building

Residential construction fell at an 18-percent annual rate in the third quarter, the biggest drop in 15 years, the government said on Nov. 29. New home sales fell 2.4 percent in October, a separate report released that day showed.

Economists projected the ISM's prices paid gauge would rise to 49.8, from 47.

Crude oil prices have edged up in recent weeks after dropping 28 percent from mid-July. The average price of a barrel of crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.39 last month, compared with $59.14 in October.

The drop in the prices paid index in recent months supports optimism that companies won't try to raise prices on finished goods to cover their costs.

Inflation, minus food and energy, rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down from 2.7 percent from April through June, the Commerce Department said on Nov. 29. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's ``comfort zone'' for that measure is an annual rate of 1 percent to 2 percent.

Bernanke Comments

Bernanke, in a speech on Nov. 28 to the Italian American Foundation, said it ``would be especially troublesome'' if inflation didn't fall further. He added that Fed officials were watching for signs that wage and salary increases would feed through to higher prices, while noting that companies could absorb higher costs by trimming profit margins.

The Fed said on Nov. 29 in its monthly survey of regional banks, called the beige book, that wage growth remained moderate and that ``most districts reported that prices moderated for construction materials and energy products.''

Economists earlier this week cut their forecasts for fourth-quarter economic growth after the Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders fell more than expected and that inventory accumulation helped push gross domestic product for the third quarter up 2.2 percent.

`A Softening'

The durable goods and GDP reports ``suggest we are gong to see a softening,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Securities, in an interview. ``Even with that acceleration in the third quarter, on a year-over-year basis we have seen quite a deceleration in business capital spending. Why would corporations go out and expand their operations when a large segment of their customer base is going out and pulling in its horns?''

Declining production is being led by announced cuts at automakers.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler have said they're trimming North American auto production this quarter in response to reduced sales. GM, the world's largest automaker, will allow its Buick brand to keep shrinking as the company consolidates dealers and concentrates on fewer models, Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner said on Nov. 29.

``Think in terms of fewer, better, more distinct Buicks that are going to focus most of their sales on retail consumers,'' Wagoner said. ``What we're not going to do is chase volume.''

but if #comes out 51+ think we could make quite a few pips on the downside, what do u think merlin? especially since its friday and profit taking is today

well it could cause some dollar strength above 50, but i have a feeling that strength will quickly be met by sellers. this is actually a pretty good trade too...if dollar strengthens on the report, FADE THAT SHIT!

yeah the guy is no joke, made more than one impressive call lately...

I hate it when the price breaks before the data like this.

if it was breaking in the opposite direction i would be a lot happier, dollar weakening pre-release kinda takes the mojo out of the potential trades i see...

bernake say something on accident " get out of the dollar while u can " "i mean ahh, ahh no the dollar is gonna go up i mean "

nervous breakdown from the pressure of knowing that he got into a bum deal when he took over lmao

euro just made 10 pip higher than yesterday that must mean something?