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The Swamp

  • #119,161
  • Edited 10:02am Oct 30, 2024 9:48am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting charlienoble
Looks like USD/CAD is going to take that top without any meaningful retrace. May be close to the big short.
We both see whats up here on CAD. I try to give the euro usd more importance since its the larger in the usdx basket. The eu has been dropping, its below several key points. I think 0920 ypp is important. PA is below it. Interest wise I think 0874 and 0882.8. Has some orders waiting. I may be wrong about that point. If correct the usd may gain strength there. It may transfer to other crosses.


If the usd is to weaken. It needs to take 0883 0920 and hold above. There is only 2 months left this year. The year average, the 6 month average and quarter average has a lot of room.
The eu quarter average is 632 pips
6 month 866
12 month 1710
The quarter high at 1.1144
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  • #119,162
  • Oct 30, 2024 2:50pm Oct 30, 2024 2:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
I think there is lite support here see chart 0861 82 is the R.. Stronger at 0882.8 0882 is above adr.. 0883 is right about the week average 88 {image}
Getting closer
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  • #119,163
  • Edited 8:15pm Oct 30, 2024 8:04pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting charlienoble
Looks like USD/CAD is going to take that top without any meaningful retrace. May be close to the big short.
The market will do what it wants. The cad and euro are both at a crossroads area.
If the cad is to drop. The eur rise. is the likely path. But if the 0882 path held EU, the cad may eventually rise UC
The 0882 one may be telling
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  • #119,164
  • Oct 30, 2024 8:17pm Oct 30, 2024 8:17pm
That ADP looked good. If NFP follows the usd may flex power. The U.S has the best economy. China is pumping e cars into Europe. That's not helping the EZ car makers
I think the usd will gain.. This may just be the pre NFP pump against the usd
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  • #119,165
  • Oct 31, 2024 2:23am Oct 31, 2024 2:23am
0846 is a soft support.. It may be forming a bottom (075x).. I'm thinking this compression with HL and HH. Since the low is a bearish flag forming. I may be wrong. I think the top of the flag could have formed. But think the near strong R may be 0882x.. I dont know if its a bear flag. It will not be known until it breaks, and prove itself or fails.
Its come within 11 pips to 0882. With NFP it often will pump to R. 0861/82 Is a R area. It's been there. I hope its stresses against 0882.8 ish. It came close at 0871.
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  • #119,166
  • Oct 31, 2024 2:36am Oct 31, 2024 2:36am
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  • #119,167
  • Oct 31, 2024 3:18am Oct 31, 2024 3:18am
Quoting gatorinla
I got 0874 as a fair value on my real time data.. I hope it reaches higher 0882/83 ish..
0888 now, favors drop in that area. Its risen since yesterday
3781.5 on CAD But favors rise in that area
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  • #119,168
  • Oct 31, 2024 4:31am Oct 31, 2024 4:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0888 now, favors drop in that area. Its risen since yesterday 3781.5 on CAD But favors rise in that area
Yesterday the balance was 0874.. it went to 0871. Since its 0888 atm.. it may make 0882.8 today. Bein the last day of the month today. Plus NFP tomorrow. Who knows.. Often when the last day of the month is Friday-Sunday. The pump is be the high. Being a Thursday on the last day. Today can be a high.
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  • #119,169
  • Oct 31, 2024 4:52am Oct 31, 2024 4:52am
If the uj falls.. If a week or 2 I may look for a long 148.48 area
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  • #119,170
  • Oct 31, 2024 5:19am Oct 31, 2024 5:19am
she is pumping.. Will she stop 088x?
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  • #119,171
  • Oct 31, 2024 5:20am Oct 31, 2024 5:20am
I will tp if need be..
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  • #119,172
  • Oct 31, 2024 6:54am Oct 31, 2024 6:54am
Bitcoin has a shot at breaking out North this week.
Wk chart
month
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,173
  • Oct 31, 2024 6:58am Oct 31, 2024 6:58am
News next 1/2 H
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,174
  • Oct 31, 2024 7:37am Oct 31, 2024 7:37am
Here we go
  • #119,175
  • Oct 31, 2024 8:50am Oct 31, 2024 8:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yesterday the balance was 0874.. it went to 0871. Since its 0888 atm.. it may make 0882.8 today. Bein the last day of the month today. Plus NFP tomorrow. Who knows.. Often when the last day of the month is Friday-Sunday. The pump is be the high. Being a Thursday on the last day. Today can be a high.
It hit 0888 now.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0888 now, favors drop in that area. Its risen since yesterday 3781.5 on CAD But favors rise in that area
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  • #119,176
  • Oct 31, 2024 8:58am Oct 31, 2024 8:58am
I dont know.. But today being the end of the month before NFP.. It could close today below 0770.
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  • #119,177
  • Oct 31, 2024 9:22am Oct 31, 2024 9:22am
I didnt do fair value on the gbp. It would of been 1.2990. pa was as high as 1.3
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  • #119,178
  • Oct 31, 2024 12:05pm Oct 31, 2024 12:05pm
If and whenever the cad drops. It may balance about 1.3781.. I will need to update later.. It may rise later
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  • #119,179
  • Oct 31, 2024 5:26pm Oct 31, 2024 5:26pm
She is at 0883 atm. This area is where I thought it wanted to go. 0888 was a fine tune. I think it favored shorts here and there. I may be wrong. NFP will come. I hope it drops before. But hope was not why I had this area. I thought it would resist here, and the bearish trend bias to take over.
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  • #119,180
  • Oct 31, 2024 6:15pm Oct 31, 2024 6:15pm
My 6h bearish trend is at 0890.8.. A 6h close above breaks it. The 1 min to 4h is bullish (excluding the 10-15 min, they are bearish at 0887). So I need a drop, and a LL. skip the 1 min.. atm 5m is at 0876, 30 min 0848
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