RickM -
Can I give you my take on how I would have traded ES last night. Rocky is a fantastic trader of ES and I love his ability to stay in a trade untill the signal ends, most traders get scared out and take profits far to early.
We both see similarities in the Bollinger Band squeeze on ES and my approach is more cautious. The best move which I traded was during the London session which is where the big moves on low volume often occur. I love those moves because the speed is slow but dependable.
On Bollinger Band Squeezes on any market, if you follow the trend break out, the winning rate is about 82%.
Therefore I was personally only looking for Long Squeezes myself, which was the first trade Rocky took and there were more several hours later towards the end of the day.
On ES, the odds are still ok trading Squeeze’s against the trend which makes Rocky a master trader.
Unfortunately on EVERY other financial market I have traded, the odds lower down to about 63% for squeezes against the trend.
Without doubt, the US500 Future’s market is an incredible market to trade on trend or without - but on any other market against the trend Squeezes just offers risky trade setups.
Lets just enjoy watching the best trader on FF working his craft.
PS. The trend in my books is by using stacked EMA moving averages 8, 21, 34, 55, 89
PSS. The 2 minute Squeeze offers the best moves in my books but what about other time frames?
As I write, there is a 15 minute Squeeze on ES right now.
Bollinger Band Squeeze trades have been around since 1980, JC developed it further.
So YES
My angle comes from me trading the ES (US500 Futures) solely on a DOM for 2 years with NO Charts because I was attempting to understand how Liquidity really works.
JC says a Bollinger Band is like a spring which contains energy just waiting to be released.
Trading solely on a DOM for those 2 years taught me that JC got this one wrong. It has nothing to do with energy inside the Squeeze, it's all to do with Bid/Ask imbalance being formed on either side of BB Squeeze. Therefore it is not a release of energy, rather its an decrease of Buyers Liquidity on a upside move by 3 to 1 (Limit orders not market) or the decrease of Sellers Liquidity on a downside move by 3 to 1.
THE FIRM exploit this imbalance by applying Algo's to attack this imbalance which typically last for 30 second to 2 minute bursts.
This is the CREAM - the imbalance on a up move will rise to over 1500 contracts excess ASKS (Selling Limit Orders) briefing on ES during some periods.
So a fail safe trade can often just be jumping aboard high imbalance with a market order and hitchhiking alongside these Algo's. This is my favourite setup regardless of whether I am trading a SQUEEZE or other strategy's.
HOWEVER in Navinder Sarao days - liquidity was actually 2 to 3 times more in 2010 than today. The clampdown on spoofing has lowered the valued of trading on DOM's in 2024
The markets are becoming broken - moves occur without any liquidity some how.
The DOM trader is becoming an endangered species.
Can I give you my take on how I would have traded ES last night. Rocky is a fantastic trader of ES and I love his ability to stay in a trade untill the signal ends, most traders get scared out and take profits far to early.
We both see similarities in the Bollinger Band squeeze on ES and my approach is more cautious. The best move which I traded was during the London session which is where the big moves on low volume often occur. I love those moves because the speed is slow but dependable.
On Bollinger Band Squeezes on any market, if you follow the trend break out, the winning rate is about 82%.
Therefore I was personally only looking for Long Squeezes myself, which was the first trade Rocky took and there were more several hours later towards the end of the day.
On ES, the odds are still ok trading Squeeze’s against the trend which makes Rocky a master trader.
Unfortunately on EVERY other financial market I have traded, the odds lower down to about 63% for squeezes against the trend.
Without doubt, the US500 Future’s market is an incredible market to trade on trend or without - but on any other market against the trend Squeezes just offers risky trade setups.
Lets just enjoy watching the best trader on FF working his craft.
PS. The trend in my books is by using stacked EMA moving averages 8, 21, 34, 55, 89
PSS. The 2 minute Squeeze offers the best moves in my books but what about other time frames?
As I write, there is a 15 minute Squeeze on ES right now.
Bollinger Band Squeeze trades have been around since 1980, JC developed it further.
So YES
My angle comes from me trading the ES (US500 Futures) solely on a DOM for 2 years with NO Charts because I was attempting to understand how Liquidity really works.
JC says a Bollinger Band is like a spring which contains energy just waiting to be released.
Trading solely on a DOM for those 2 years taught me that JC got this one wrong. It has nothing to do with energy inside the Squeeze, it's all to do with Bid/Ask imbalance being formed on either side of BB Squeeze. Therefore it is not a release of energy, rather its an decrease of Buyers Liquidity on a upside move by 3 to 1 (Limit orders not market) or the decrease of Sellers Liquidity on a downside move by 3 to 1.
THE FIRM exploit this imbalance by applying Algo's to attack this imbalance which typically last for 30 second to 2 minute bursts.
This is the CREAM - the imbalance on a up move will rise to over 1500 contracts excess ASKS (Selling Limit Orders) briefing on ES during some periods.
So a fail safe trade can often just be jumping aboard high imbalance with a market order and hitchhiking alongside these Algo's. This is my favourite setup regardless of whether I am trading a SQUEEZE or other strategy's.
HOWEVER in Navinder Sarao days - liquidity was actually 2 to 3 times more in 2010 than today. The clampdown on spoofing has lowered the valued of trading on DOM's in 2024
The markets are becoming broken - moves occur without any liquidity some how.
The DOM trader is becoming an endangered species.
