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The Swamp

  • #119,121
  • Oct 24, 2024 4:13pm Oct 24, 2024 4:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed manually -4. It didnt look like it was going to drop. So I decided to save the 6 pips of my s/i because rollover would have probably taken them anyway.
The spread would of knocked me out.
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  • #119,122
  • Oct 24, 2024 7:35pm Oct 24, 2024 7:35pm
I see a chance for 0797/98 + spread. ..0796/90 support. Even 0790/0801 has light support value.
I placed a pending at 0799x
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  • #119,123
  • Oct 24, 2024 9:15pm Oct 24, 2024 9:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
I see a chance for 0797/98 + spread. ..0796/90 support. Even 0790/0801 has light support value. I placed a pending at 0799x
Anytime now till LC I look for a chance to long about 0798
I could short 0882 maybe too
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  • #119,124
  • Oct 25, 2024 5:54am Oct 25, 2024 5:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Anytime now till LC I look for a chance to long about 0798 I could short 0882 maybe too
If this is true, and it it held as support. Adr is about 59. Thats close to 0860.. The week average range about 0882. But 0824 may resist
If the current day low held. Adr is about 0872.

Pa often runs back to 0798 once+. It hasn't yet.
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  • #119,125
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:52am Oct 25, 2024 11:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Anytime now till LC I look for a chance to long about 0798 I could short 0882 maybe too
I closed this pending entry. LC is over.. there may be some 0797 support..
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  • #119,126
  • Oct 25, 2024 6:38pm Oct 25, 2024 6:38pm
Israel is bombing Iran. That may affect oil and oil currencies. Shipping etc.
Hopefully it won't escalate so much.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/isr...an-retaliation
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  • #119,127
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:01am Oct 27, 2024 11:01am
I think dollar cad is going to go after at least 1.3950, maybe 1.4
  • #119,128
  • Edited 9:13pm Oct 27, 2024 6:52pm | Edited 9:13pm
We may see the NFP pump dump the week. 0882.8 has some R merit.. But it may not pump. If it pumps I will look there.. Add about 28 pips to futures.. or about 0910 area.. It may be later in the week
It it pumps, the 0882.8 area has potential high before large fall potential
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  • #119,129
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:18pm Oct 27, 2024 9:18pm
Quoting charlienoble
I think dollar cad is going to go after at least 1.3950, maybe 1.4
The bombing of Iran should held the cad for oil reasons. The u.s. produces more oil the any other nation. So it may be less important on the usd/cad. month wise it has a top to break..
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  • #119,130
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:51pm Oct 27, 2024 9:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The bombing of Iran should held the cad for oil reasons. The u.s. produces more oil the any other nation. So it may be less important on the usd/cad. month wise it has a top to break.. {image} {image}
This is probably good for the usd. So it may test near 076x.. But NFP pumps before often. I may buy in the 076x area.. But mindful of the potential drop with oil. related pressure. The u.s. produces a little more than consumption. So it is a exporter. The eurozone uses more than it produces. The EZ is a net importer of oil..
If the above be true. The sad versus the euro could reflect a rise in oil. Will oil rise is the question. Japan is a importer of oil and most things
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  • #119,131
  • Oct 28, 2024 6:22am Oct 28, 2024 6:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This is probably good for the usd. So it may test near 076x.. But NFP pumps before often. I may buy in the 076x area.. But mindful of the potential drop with oil. related pressure. The u.s. produces a little more than consumption. So it is a exporter. The eurozone uses more than it produces. The EZ is a net importer of oil.. If the above be true. The sad versus the euro could reflect a rise in oil. Will oil rise is the question. Japan is a importer of oil and most things
WTI oil price has fallen this week..This is a week chart. WTI is at the average month price . The blue line
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  • #119,132
  • Oct 28, 2024 6:31am Oct 28, 2024 6:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} WTI oil price has fallen this week..This is a week chart. WTI is at the average month price . The blue line {image}
It's a little below the month average 68.55.. 1h chart
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  • #119,133
  • Oct 28, 2024 6:48am Oct 28, 2024 6:48am
The price has been dropping. It is forecast to drop more in 2025. Fridays events did not cause a rise since atm. Non Opec countries are pumping more. The stockpile of oil is rising. Some probably for more global production. If the rising stockpile is do to less demand. That demand loss and increase in production can cause oil to fall quickly. If we see oil drop below 62$ while the the stockpile is high. It should fall more .. Its at the average month price, with a new month about to start. If it fell below 62 now, with a new month range. it could drop 11$. It's more likely to bounce because it average. That building of storage is not a good sign for oil. While its at the lower range of price. It could fall off the 62 edge
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  • #119,134
  • Oct 28, 2024 6:49am Oct 28, 2024 6:49am
Hey, what's your view on EU?
  • #119,135
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:02am Oct 28, 2024 7:02am
Quoting gatorinla
The price has been dropping. It is forecast to drop more in 2025. Fridays events did not cause a rise since atm. Non Opec countries are pumping more. The stockpile of oil is rising. Some probably for more global production. If the rising stockpile is do to less demand. That demand loss and increase in production can cause oil to fall quickly. If we see oil drop below 62$ while the the stockpile is high. It should fall more .. Its at the average month price, with a new month about to start. If it fell below 62 now, with a new month range. it could...
If 60%+ Tariffs are coming to the U.S. We can expect oil demand to drop. If next year your Christmas presents are going to cost 60% more. Than people will buy less Christmas presents. Anything related to making shipping and retailing demand will fall. Oil will be one hit hard. The global economy will recess. People in my state will suffer badly (oil producing states)
Its just 1+1=2 economics.
A drop in oil prices may actually help EZ and Japan.
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  • #119,136
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:04am Oct 28, 2024 7:04am
I think for USDCAD I'm going to look for 1.3820 - 1.38 for a buy. I think we'll get the chance to sell 1.0880's for EU this week.
  • #119,137
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:27am Oct 28, 2024 7:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If 60%+ Tariffs are coming to the U.S. We can expect oil demand to drop. If next year your Christmas presents are going to cost 60% more. Than people will buy less Christmas presents. Anything related to making shipping and retailing demand will fall. Oil will be one hit hard. The global economy will recess. People in my state will suffer badly (oil producing states) Its just 1+1=2 economics. A drop in oil prices may actually help EZ and Japan. {image}
The non oil rise, may be the thinking that things are not so bad ( ME war wise). Can anyone remember a time when Israel and M.E. tensions did not cause a rise after a bombing? In that price chart, one can see the price dropping since June 22. That covers last October till now. The week of October 7 closed at 71.81, on October 10 2023. 1 year later after bombing Iran (last week). This month may close below 71.81. ATM that doesn't look good for oil. When it's broken down with the fundies before a possible adding of Tariffs. Oil is volatile and tends to overshoot. If tariffs are added on top. Expect a mother of a recession, (depression in oil states because house values fall )
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  • #119,138
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:30am Oct 28, 2024 7:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The non oil rise, may be the thinking that things are not so bad ( ME war wise). Can anyone remember a time when Israel and M.E. tensions did not cause a rise after a bombing? In that price chart, one can see the price dropping since June 22. That covers last October till now. The week of October 7 closed at 71.81, on October 10 2023. 1 year later after bombing Iran (last week). This month may close below 71.81. ATM that doesn't look good for oil. When it's broken down with the fundies before a possible adding of Tariffs. Oil is volatile...
If Iran chooses to attempt a response it will get VERY interesting quickly.
  • #119,139
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:44am Oct 28, 2024 7:44am
Quoting Eagle-Eye
Hey, what's your view on EU?
I plan to short 0882 area.. But it may not get there. It may top in that area, and take a new leg down. If wrong about that R.. I will have to make a new plan.. Its NFP week.. It often pumps before a fall. I may buy 076s area early week
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  • #119,140
  • Oct 28, 2024 7:46am Oct 28, 2024 7:46am
1.31 would be a nice GU short if it gets there.
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