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  • #49,141
  • Oct 27, 2024 12:59pm Oct 27, 2024 12:59pm
General outlook
Retail traders are now buying XAUUSD as the volume of long positions is greater than the volume of short positions.
Possible opportunity
The fact that traders have significantly increased their net long positions suggests that XAUUSD is likely to decline further.
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  • #49,142
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:15pm Oct 27, 2024 1:15pm
Gold - 28/oct/2024

all level intraday and weekly updated ( support & Resistance)
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  • #49,143
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:16pm Oct 27, 2024 1:16pm
Gold - 15min
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  • #49,144
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:38pm Oct 27, 2024 1:38pm
Thanks
Gold Trading Return Today: na
  • #49,145
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:51pm Oct 27, 2024 1:51pm
Quoting ElCampeador
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
What a honor to have :Sovereign Living Soul: here. What happened with old FF account? I hope you didn't waste your money on legal-fiction books and gurus.
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https://www.treasurydirect.gov/laws-...ificate-bonds/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovere...tizen_movement
https://www.nass.org/sites/default/f...ngs-040914.pdf

Was a funny reading
Air force
  • #49,146
  • Oct 27, 2024 2:11pm Oct 27, 2024 2:11pm
Quoting michiyo
{quote} No way I'm trading election week bro... especially election day. Gold can easily move a thousand pips in a minute. Im sitting it out.
“If I managed to get in near a top and it gave a decent amount of pips to the downside before the election, I would likely leave it open with a +100 stop.
Que Sera
  • #49,147
  • Oct 27, 2024 3:00pm Oct 27, 2024 3:00pm
Quoting Orand
Last week Status : (+190pip,-293,+265pip,-310pip,-60pip) ,Total: -208 pip Last week Win Ratio : 24/62 or %38 ---------------------------- losing week , i should have played it safer on FRIDAY, so i could close week in green .
Not good man !!!
  • #49,148
  • Edited Oct 28, 2024 4:39am Oct 27, 2024 3:21pm | Edited Oct 28, 2024 4:39am
Letzte Woche wurde ich gefragt, warum ich Gold leerverkauft habe, obwohl ich erwartet hatte, dass es <2400 erreichen würde. Quellen siehe unten.
Ich habe versprochen, die Gründe zu erklären. Meine Entscheidung als Einzelhändler ist höchst spekulativ.
Jedes Argument, das ich im Folgenden vorbringe, kann entkräftet werden und zum Gegenteil führen – einer langen Bewegung.
Andere Teilnehmer des Threads äußerten bereits, dass sie lieber abwarten möchten, zumal große geopolitische Ereignisse unmittelbar bevorstehen.
Daran ist nichts auszusetzen. Woher kommt also meine Entscheidungsfreude? (was absolut nichts mit Daytrading, 100-Pipscalp, Overnight-/Wochenend-Halten zu tun hat)

Genug ist genug (da geht noch was ? 3000 stehen vor der Tür...)
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Jetzt ist es zu teuer.

Steigerungen auch in zahlreichen anderen Währungen.
Rückkauf ab 2688 – Sofort höher? Ziel <2400 , ggf. beschleunigte Vorlaufzeit nutzen.

So könnt ihr euch den Start des Laufs bis 2400 vorstellen. Anschließend erfahrt ihr, wer es mit 1 Versuch geschafft hat
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Ich shorte jetzt trotz des unsicheren Umfelds, weil ich den frühen Einstieg nutzen möchte. Schnelle Abwärtsbewegung = Gewinnakkumulation, um das Retracement risikolos durchführen zu können. Geht der Kurs wider Erwarten über den Einstiegspunkt, sind Verluste irrelevant. Klappt die Zielsetzung nicht, wird mit einem kleinen Verlust neu bewertet.

Wer kauft Gold (bei nicht-physischem Gold manchmal nicht adressierbar ) Entstehung
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https://www.kitco.com/markets/mining/-MIGL

Verteilung
Schmuck, Recycling, ETF (physisch hinterlegt) kleine USA ETF, Zentralbanken, Futures, Position Casha, Optionen
https://www.kettner-edelmetalle.de/w...menge-weltweit
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ETF = mit physischem Gold gedeckt – wenige Käufe in den USA
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Zentralbanken drosseln ihre Käufe im zweiten Halbjahr
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Zinspolitik/Inflation FED 18.09.24 überzogene Zinssenkung 0,5?
nächste Fed-Sitzung 7. November 2024
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wahrscheinlich niedriger?
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

Fed meeting December 18.12.24
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Labor market
inflation
CPI
Debt
https://www.sg-zertifikate.de/ideas-..._term=20241025
Commerzbank vom 25.10.24
An important driver for the increase in the price of gold was the increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. As interest rates fall, gold becomes more attractive as an interest-free investment compared to bonds. The price-driving effect of interest rate expectations became apparent when the US Federal Reserve surprisingly cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points at its September meeting and interest rate cut expectations in the market then increased significantly again. Because in response, the price of gold jumped up (Chart 2). When the market scaled back these expectations after the surprisingly positive labor market report and inflation data that exceeded expectations, the price of gold also temporarily fell. However, expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed have now declined so much that there is no longer any headwind to be expected from this side. High prices curb physical demand Despite ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts, a high level of uncertainty and likely continued extensive central bank purchases, the further upward potential for the gold price is likely to be limited. The strong price increase is already showing signs of slowing down physical demand. This is particularly visible in China, where gold imports via Hong Kong and Switzerland collapsed in August to their lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The record high price level is also slowing demand in India. India's gold imports actually rose sharply in August, but this was probably due to the sharp reduction in taxes.

Gold imports in July and is likely to prove to be a temporary phenomenon. Data from the Federal Customs Authority for September show a collapse in Swiss gold exports to India by almost 90% to the lowest level since the beginning of 2023. Further significant increase unlikely Due to the apparent weakening of physical demand, we expect the price of gold to settle near the $2,600 mark in the coming months. A higher price level would probably only be expected if expectations of interest rate cuts increase noticeably again or if the situation in the Middle East worsens.

geopolitics
- Presidential election 11/5/24 Election USA = friction losses in society at 50/50 No suggestions for debt settlement

Alliance search (Briks) in gradual development
Bündnissuche (Briks) in allmählicher Entwicklung
https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/gosu...rticle1533543/

Russia-Ukraine war
Middle East war
China Taiwan and many others
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15041446
FF_Dsmile47

Eye-catching assets
yen
Government bond yields increased despite interest rate cut 2>10y
Zinssenkungen kein wirksames Mittel?
Übermäßige Schulden
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Abschluss
Ich werde mich dann kurz fassen

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15032318
FF_Isabella_D #47.353 17.10.24 21:01, nur kurz
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15034890
FF_Isabella_D #47.936 21.10.24 19:36, Tor kurz <2400; Absicherung, SL
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15039734
FF_Isabella_D #48.711 24.10.24 21:29, Tagesbericht Laufpositionen
https://stock3.com/news/goldpreis-au...-2025-15586902
CMC Markets, Jochen Stanzl 12:14 Uhr, 23.10.2024
wer kauft Gold 06:08'; 08:00';08:58'; wie weiter 13:57

edited 28.10.24 11:00 MEZ
- Goal is XAUUSD<2400
- Pics FED 07.12.24 and 18.12.24
  • #49,149
  • Oct 27, 2024 3:42pm Oct 27, 2024 3:42pm
"Gold Market Update:
According to the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, major players have closed their buying positions in the gold market. This suggests a potential retracement to:
- $2,675
- $2,630
Key implications:
- Price correction expected this week
- Avoid holding onto positions
- Adhere to strict trading rules
  • #49,150
  • Oct 27, 2024 3:49pm Oct 27, 2024 3:49pm
Quoting Isabella_D
Last week I was asked why I went short gold with the expectation of reaching >2400. sources see below I promised to explain why. My decision as a retailer is highly speculative. Every argument that I present below can be invalidated and lead to the opposite - a long movement. Other participants in the thread have already said that they prefer to wait and see, especially since major geopolitical events are imminent. There is nothing wrong with that. So where does my willingness to make decisions come from? (which has absolutely nothing to do with...
cracking post mate
Que Sera
  • #49,151
  • Oct 27, 2024 3:56pm Oct 27, 2024 3:56pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} cracking post mate
If you like it, everything is fine.
I know I have to edit it. But I can't see the paper anymore and I get lice when I touch it.
However, perhaps we have a structure now and can edit well.
  • #49,152
  • Edited 4:22pm Oct 27, 2024 4:09pm | Edited 4:22pm
Considering that the franc and yen are weakening . gold will definitely open with a downward gap.
It seems that all traders agree that the tension in the Middle East will decrease
edit: if open in positive prices im seller at opening
  • #49,153
  • Oct 27, 2024 4:22pm Oct 27, 2024 4:22pm
Nope
Gold is not monitored at all by the middle east war.
The real leverage is the american election and its financial consequences
  • #49,154
  • Oct 27, 2024 4:33pm Oct 27, 2024 4:33pm
I'm still biased slightly towards the long side, but only kinda 60/40... So I've got a small long and small short..we'll see where it takes us.
  • #49,155
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:04pm Oct 27, 2024 5:04pm
Quoting S3000
Nope Gold is not monitored at all by the middle east war. The real leverage is the american election and its financial consequences
In any case, war cannot be separated from gold, even if its not first Catalysis.
downward gap as expected
  • #49,156
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:08pm Oct 27, 2024 5:08pm
I bought at 2733

SL just below the low.

wasnt expecting anywhere near that open, pleased I closed all longs on Friday.
Que Sera
  • #49,157
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:15pm Oct 27, 2024 5:15pm
Quoting Catempire
I bought at 2733 SL just below the low. wasnt expecting anywhere near that open, pleased I closed all longs on Friday.
Good luck, don't really trade this hour

Yeah, not really surprised after the weekend gold index was flat until 10 mins before market open...
  • #49,158
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:30pm Oct 27, 2024 5:30pm
Quoting Isabella_D
Last week I was asked why I went short gold with the expectation of reaching >2400. sources see below I promised to explain why. My decision as a retailer is highly speculative. Every argument that I present below can be invalidated and lead to the opposite - a long movement. Other participants in the thread have already said that they prefer to wait and see, especially since major geopolitical events are imminent. There is nothing wrong with that. So where does my willingness to make decisions come from? (which has absolutely nothing to do with...
Nice post. Just hit stoploss selling last friday.

At least this person made an order. The other one is still watching cable news.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #49,159
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:31pm Oct 27, 2024 5:31pm
Quoting Neowarcloud
{quote} Good luck, don't really trade this hour Yeah, not really surprised after the weekend gold index was flat until 10 mins before market open...
I don’t mind the time if there’s extreme moves in either direction.

Could see opening gap fill. Hopefully Asia get their yen’s out and go hard tonight, alternatively I lose a few quid while I sleep (wouldn’t be the first time).

night chaps.
Que Sera
  • #49,160
  • Oct 27, 2024 5:34pm Oct 27, 2024 5:34pm
Quoting Catempire
{quote} I don’t mind the time if there’s extreme moves in either direction. Could see opening gap fill. Hopefully Asia get their yen’s out and go hard tonight, alternatively I lose a few quid while I sleep (wouldn’t be the first time). night chaps.
SL just below the 15m Low.

peace all prosperous week ahead
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Que Sera
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