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The Swamp

  • #119,061
  • Oct 18, 2024 7:50am Oct 18, 2024 7:50am
Quoting gatorinla
EU has reached the week and day average. I', going to pend a entry about 0872.. Since it has reached the week average, if it holds. 1 adr may reach 087x.. My hope is a dt there. You can see a bullish hammer on the 1h candle in the week/day average lower range. No guarantees. {image} {image}
1 adr off the 0811 low is about 0873. Adr off today's current low it about 0887. Using averages either 0873 or 0887 may be a average place eu goes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,062
  • Oct 18, 2024 8:02am Oct 18, 2024 8:02am
There is likely a formula to averages. Take out the extreme ones on both sides etc. If there is a proven one. I dont know it. I look at it like this.. 1/3 days pa will be below the established average. 1/3 days will be above the days average. 1/3 the time pa will be very close to the adr. It's an overall average. You can have many day above or below in a row. Both of the points 0872 and 0888 have some R unrelated to the averages
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,063
  • Oct 18, 2024 9:28am Oct 18, 2024 9:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Il cad potrebbe rompersi prima. Spero in una spinta finale. {image}
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I share..
  • #119,064
  • Oct 18, 2024 10:22am Oct 18, 2024 10:22am
Quoting gatorinla
UJ reached average month range at 150.28 {image}
If you took the uj short. You should be up 75ish pips. Your drawdown was about 4 pips. Maybe take a little off or whatever. That entry was a retrace back to the week trend. So it may start a new smaller down trend, or just continue the week trend that is down. The potential on a continuation is probably hundreds of pips. As long as the 150.28 week trend remains in a down trend 149.20-.30 has some possible support. But if the week trend continues. These should give up. I locked some in. So if I would get a run. It is already well past what was risked
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,065
  • Oct 18, 2024 11:57am Oct 18, 2024 11:57am
Quoting PlSoft
{quote} {image} I share..
It needs 1.3841 in the rear view mirror Q4 2024.
Since its bullish, I figure it will return to 3841.. It may DT there.. In this area
I have a week trend stop there, and another high there. At the point of Q4 R1. Longs may have problems there.
Potentially kicking toward 1.3630, or about 200 pips
When in that 384x shadow, the cad may lose some shine. I can't say for sure. But the potential is there
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,066
  • Oct 18, 2024 12:06pm Oct 18, 2024 12:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It needs 1.3841 in the rear view mirror Q4 2024. Since its bullish, I figure it will return to 3841.. It may DT there.. In this area I have a week trend stop there, and another high there. At the point of Q4 R1. Longs may have problems there. Potentially kicking toward 1.3630, or about 200 pips When in that 384x shadow, the cad may lose some shine. I can't say for sure. But the potential is there {image} {image}
UC year
YPP 3414
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  • #119,067
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:31am Oct 20, 2024 9:31am
There are smaller places like 0874.. 0882.8 area has some potential. I see some R near it in the 0899. The next above is that year pp area. 0920 29. Spot market wise.

Futures looks to be about 25 pips above these. Futures wise 0930 ish and 0960 ish.
So those similarly agree that some R is in the spot at 0883. Or 0920. I will need to look hard at holding a short 0882.7 0906.. Noting 0874 is smaller but can stop my rise. Second choice is a test close to 0920, but it can overreach. I planned on 0874 but it can breach..I need to use areas. The areas 0882.8 or 0929 may be top areas now.
I'm speculating the rise to 1215 was a top, Followed by closes below 1186 39 and the year pp these last few weeks are the trend. Last week has now closed again below 0929 and 0882.8. That is inline with my bearish view.
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  • #119,068
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:44am Oct 20, 2024 9:44am
Futures closed Friday above S2. That detail has increased the chance of rise some. It may open below.. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.
Those above pp are the year and quarter for futures
The q is above the 0750 pp q level.. That would be a bear challenge if its to fall. Spot should be 25 pips below near or about.
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  • #119,069
  • Oct 20, 2024 9:59am Oct 20, 2024 9:59am
Lets see how it plays out
That 0889 challenge has let bulls close above
The spot market has it below it and 0883
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,070
  • Edited 4:34am Oct 21, 2024 4:21am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting gatorinla
There are smaller places like 0874.. 0882.8 area has some potential. I see some R near it in the 0899. The next above is that year pp area. 0920 29. Spot market wise. Futures looks to be about 25 pips above these. Futures wise 0930 ish and 0960 ish. So those similarly agree that some R is in the spot at 0883. Or 0920. I will need to look hard at holding a short 0882.7 0906.. Noting 0874 is smaller but can stop my rise. Second choice is a test close to 0920, but it can overreach. I planned on 0874 but it can breach..I need to use areas. The areas...
PA came near 0874.. Not 0882.8.. It pulled away toward 084x... I still wait. If this would work out making 0883ish a high. Adr would be near 0820. Week range would be below 0775ish previous low. It may bounce in that 077x area.
I anticipate/estimate the spot eu R 0882x. area.
I missed the .6730 entry on the Aud/usd. It got as high as 6323..I'm still going to wait
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  • #119,071
  • Oct 21, 2024 5:29am Oct 21, 2024 5:29am
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No news Monday
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  • #119,072
  • Oct 21, 2024 11:48am Oct 21, 2024 11:48am
Quoting gatorinla
Selling the usd/cad 1.3843ish. (looking for a reason to enter in that area ) Hoping for a dt and a 200 pip retrace. Risk can be based on the 200 reward. It may not reach 1.3843. But the usd is strong.. So It should try. {image}
Testing 1.3843 now. USD/CAD
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,073
  • Oct 21, 2024 12:02pm Oct 21, 2024 12:02pm
A eur/cad bounce here would not hurt my feelings. 1.4976
eu would likely rise, uc fall
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,074
  • Oct 21, 2024 3:26pm Oct 21, 2024 3:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Test in corso a 1,3843. USD/CAD {image}
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This is my goal
  • #119,075
  • Oct 21, 2024 5:40pm Oct 21, 2024 5:40pm
Quoting PlSoft
{quote} {image} This is my goal
It's in a very bullish uptrend on my daily. My bearish week downtrend is still valid closing below 1.3843. It hit QR2 on my quarter. It has run above the month average range (maybe overextended). It has several past highs in the area I entered. I may be wrong. It just seems like its worth the risk for a short there. So I went short. That Q2 R and that week trend I figure could force it back 1.3650. But there is no guarantees. The 1/4 quarter trends sometimes continue into the new year. If so, I will be wrong on this short
I didnt see your entree point on the chart or tp. I see some levels, but I'm not sure if thats them
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  • #119,076
  • Oct 22, 2024 7:38am Oct 22, 2024 7:38am
Thinking that USDCAD may reach for 1.3920
  • #119,077
  • Oct 22, 2024 7:43am Oct 22, 2024 7:43am
Quoting charlienoble
Thinking that USDCAD may reach for 1.3920
It can.. It needs to beat 1.384x..The usd is strong. \
I left a eu short just below 0883. Its not looking like it will trigger. (eu futures 0907)
I'm still short the cad. Ud it goes sideways a while it may pop either was. Next week is NFP.. Before NFP I may get the counter move. I have to just hang on and see.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #119,078
  • Oct 22, 2024 7:56am Oct 22, 2024 7:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It can.. It needs to beat 1.384x..The usd is strong. \ I left a eu short just below 0883. Its not looking like it will trigger. (eu futures 0907) I'm still short the cad. Ud it goes sideways a while it may pop either was. Next week is NFP.. Before NFP I may get the counter move. I have to just hang on and see.
I'm also keen on a ucad short, just looking for the right spot. Of course as soon as I short it, it will explode to 1.3920
  • #119,079
  • Oct 22, 2024 8:32am Oct 22, 2024 8:32am
Quoting charlienoble
{quote} Sono anche interessato a un ucad short, sto solo cercando il punto giusto. Ovviamente, non appena lo shorterò, esploderà a 1,3920
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This is a good point to enter BUY
  • #119,080
  • Oct 22, 2024 8:49am Oct 22, 2024 8:49am
Quoting charlienoble
{quote} I'm also keen on a ucad short, just looking for the right spot. Of course as soon as I short it, it will explode to 1.3920
It has awakened a little..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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