Anything works? I played around on the stock market for a while and found fxdreem, started writing bots, different setups, testing the stock market way back. I didn't really find any strategy (and I tested thousands of them), I came up with a lot of ideas, different indicators, grid, playing against the trend and with the trend. Different intersections of indicators. Playing at specific times of the day. Literally nothing works. Where you make money on the trend, you lose on consolidation and vice versa. How on earth do you make money on the stock market, if there is really NO STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE. Do you have some manual strategy that works? Or is it better to give up on the subject. If complicated bots don't work, do people make money by being lucky or where does it come from? Bots turn off emotions. But there is literally no statistical advantage.
Anything works? I played around on the stock market for a while and found fxdreem, started writing bots, different setups, testing the stock market way back. I didn't really find any strategy (and I tested thousands of them), I came up with a lot of ideas, different indicators, grid, playing against the trend and with the trend. Different intersections of indicators. Playing at specific times of the day. Literally nothing works. Where you make money on the trend, you lose on consolidation and vice versa. How on earth do you make money on the stock...
To back up RickM above - If you look at Daily GOLD, in FEB/MARCH - that sideways price action would have produced a BB "squeeze" (BB's NOT SHOWN) - I just use moving averages to filter, especially when they "twist" for days/weeks etc, as I can picture the BB's in my mind - Ignore the Indicators, they are for other set-ups
Another method that definitely works are 123's and Ross Hooks
THT
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 8,288 Posts
I think just BUY BUY BUY works
The S&P 500 just closed at a new record high. The stock market has gained $8 trillion in value this year.
The S&P 500 just closed at a new record high. The stock market has gained $8 trillion in value this year.
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return:
-1.0%
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 8,288 Posts
I don't think anyone will really share their strategies that make them a lot of money for free
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return:
-1.0%
The trick to all this is KNOWING the cycles - once you know the cycle, you simply cannot go wrong, you will always be on the right side of the market
I bet 99.9% of people who read this post will not have a clue about cycles
Here's a chart of the Dow from 1900 - Its self-evident trading long during the DOWN sections is going to be hit and miss, whilst trading long during the UP cycles gives people that BUY BUY BUY mentality - the cycle is 16-19 years and the reason it is not static is because it is planetary, so sometimes the speed of the planet is fast and other times slow hence the difference when it completes in 16 years then 19 years
You can TIME most of those big swings - Its not my plan to reveal exactly how, but anyone with a capulator, pencil and paper can work out the rough time spans
What is 16-19 years + 2017? Because that is when the top will arrive and the next DOWN cycle starts - If you're still long when that hits its first decline, expect to lose 50% of the value of your holdings - A simple strategy would be to convert to CASH wait 3 years then reinvest for a few years, then cash, then when the 2009 equivilant low arrives shove everything back in and hold until the next down cycle
What about other markets?
Well there's a pretty clear 4 year cycle in Oil - Guess what should happen next!
What about Individual stocks? well here's a UK stock I trade, position trade, semi-Invest in whatever you want to call it
All I've done here is placed the most relevant cycles into a composite Index (RED line) - Blue line is WEEKLY price action - PS - if I extend the blue flat line into the future, the RED line will reveal the prediction of the comp index, so If I want to see possible price projection out to 2030 I could
Anyone mentioning DIVERSIFY has not got a clue - If you have a cycle bottom coming that has previous resulted in a 100%+ return on price, you do not want to be partially invested do you - BUT, as most people have not got a clue about these cycles, having a balanced portfolio is probably the best bet for them, although just tracking the Nasdaq has been much better than the other US markets (The Nasdaq is the speculative market of choice)
and as this a Forex based forum, here's a cycle that exists in the EURUSD & GBPUSD which is very very very close to arriving (This is a line chart of the CLOSE only - its not showing full price action, the Important bit is the cycle
- my charting software converts to a line chart of the close if I squeeze too much past data on to the chart)
If you want a better method than just buying and holding then go to the Stock Market Almanacs website and look at their US stock market 6 month buy & hold with MACD method, they list the results compared to a full on buy and hold of the same index
I bet 99.9% of people who read this post will not have a clue about cycles
Here's a chart of the Dow from 1900 - Its self-evident trading long during the DOWN sections is going to be hit and miss, whilst trading long during the UP cycles gives people that BUY BUY BUY mentality - the cycle is 16-19 years and the reason it is not static is because it is planetary, so sometimes the speed of the planet is fast and other times slow hence the difference when it completes in 16 years then 19 years
You can TIME most of those big swings - Its not my plan to reveal exactly how, but anyone with a capulator, pencil and paper can work out the rough time spans
What is 16-19 years + 2017? Because that is when the top will arrive and the next DOWN cycle starts - If you're still long when that hits its first decline, expect to lose 50% of the value of your holdings - A simple strategy would be to convert to CASH wait 3 years then reinvest for a few years, then cash, then when the 2009 equivilant low arrives shove everything back in and hold until the next down cycle
What about other markets?
Well there's a pretty clear 4 year cycle in Oil - Guess what should happen next!
What about Individual stocks? well here's a UK stock I trade, position trade, semi-Invest in whatever you want to call it
All I've done here is placed the most relevant cycles into a composite Index (RED line) - Blue line is WEEKLY price action - PS - if I extend the blue flat line into the future, the RED line will reveal the prediction of the comp index, so If I want to see possible price projection out to 2030 I could
Anyone mentioning DIVERSIFY has not got a clue - If you have a cycle bottom coming that has previous resulted in a 100%+ return on price, you do not want to be partially invested do you - BUT, as most people have not got a clue about these cycles, having a balanced portfolio is probably the best bet for them, although just tracking the Nasdaq has been much better than the other US markets (The Nasdaq is the speculative market of choice)
and as this a Forex based forum, here's a cycle that exists in the EURUSD & GBPUSD which is very very very close to arriving (This is a line chart of the CLOSE only - its not showing full price action, the Important bit is the cycle
- my charting software converts to a line chart of the close if I squeeze too much past data on to the chart)
If you want a better method than just buying and holding then go to the Stock Market Almanacs website and look at their US stock market 6 month buy & hold with MACD method, they list the results compared to a full on buy and hold of the same index
THT