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High volatility

  • #21
  • Oct 13, 2024 3:18am Oct 13, 2024 3:18am
A note and food for thought trading with the trend? :

In periods of high volatility, there are two logical outcomes:

  1. either the price will continue moving in the same direction,
  2. or it will retrace.

This implies that someone can trade in the direction of the candle, provided they have the right mindset. I am confident that a skilled trader could also monetize this system.

There are exceptions where I will trade with the trend, such as during stock market crashes. In times of real panic selling, going with the trend is usually more logical and effective than being contrarian. So, it's important to ask yourself: are we in normal market conditions or abnormal ones? In normal situations, the market is likely to retrace, but in abnormal conditions, it might be a falling knife.

  • #22
  • Oct 13, 2024 3:37am Oct 13, 2024 3:37am
Quoting martijn25
A note and food for thought trading with the trend? : In periods of high volatility, there are two logical outcomes: either the price will continue moving in the same direction, or it will retrace. This implies that someone can trade in the direction of the candle, provided they have the right mindset. I am confident that a skilled trader could also monetize this system. There are exceptions where I will trade with the trend, such as during stock market crashes. In times of real panic selling, going with the trend is usually more logical and effective...
Hi Martijn25

What comes first - chicken or the egg.

Most amateur traders think that the way to trade a strong trend is to wait for high volatility to occur then jump on the correct candle.

Most Professional traders learn to enter a position in extreme low volatility periods BEFORE the breakout occurs often in the direction of the previous trend.
That's a 80% winning trade right there.

Trade the SQUEEZE in the direction of current Momentum.

EVERY SINGLE MAJOR STOCK MARKET TREND IN THE LAST 100 YEARS HAS STARTED FROM A PERIOD OF LOW VOLATILITY
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #23
  • Oct 13, 2024 4:10am Oct 13, 2024 4:10am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Martijn25 What comes first - chicken or the egg. Most amateur traders think that the way to trade a strong trend is to wait for high volatility to occur then jump on the correct candle. Most Professional traders learn to enter a position in extreme low volatility periods BEFORE the breakout occurs often in the direction of the previous trend. That's a 80% winning trade right there. Trade the SQUEEZE in the direction of current Momentum. EVERY SINGLE MAJOR STOCK MARKET TREND IN THE LAST 100 YEARS HAS STARTED FROM A PERIOD OF LOW VOLATILITY...
Hi Rick M,

I see where you're coming from, but I have to disagree with your perspective. While trading during low volatility can work well for some, it's not the only way to approach the markets, especially when considering different time horizons and personal trading styles.
One key question traders need to ask themselves is how long they want to be in the market. Your approach might suit those who prefer to hold positions for longer, waiting for low volatility to build up and then catching a breakout. However, for traders like myself who prefer shorter-term trades, entering during periods of high volatility can be more practical. High volatility presents opportunities for quicker, sharper moves, and with the right mindset and skill set, these moments can be just as profitable.

So, while I understand your preference for entering during low volatility, I believe that high volatility can also offer great opportunities, especially for traders who are prepared to manage the risks that come with it.
  • #24
  • Oct 13, 2024 4:17am Oct 13, 2024 4:17am
Quoting martijn25
{quote} Hi Rick M, I see where you're coming from, but I have to disagree with your perspective. While trading during low volatility can work well for some, it's not the only way to approach the markets, especially when considering different time horizons and personal trading styles. One key question traders need to ask themselves is how long they want to be in the market. Your approach might suit those who prefer to hold positions for longer, waiting for low volatility to build up and then catching a breakout. However, for traders like myself who...
What do you think about this Oil move in September 2021 I took

(I didn't stay long enough but you get the idea)

PS. I trade on the 2 Minute chart and only enter during LOW VOLATILITY - do you want to see some 2 Minute Squeezes
Hint - look at NYO

The 2 minute chart setup I took on Friday - that's short term
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oil.png Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: german oil.png Size: 114 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #25
  • Oct 13, 2024 5:05am Oct 13, 2024 5:05am
Quoting RickM
{quote} What do you think about this Oil move in September 2021 I took (I didn't stay long enough but you get the idea) PS. I trade on the 2 Minute chart and only enter during LOW VOLATILITY - do you want to see some 2 Minute Squeezes Hint - look at NYO The 2 minute chart setup I took on Friday - that's short term {image} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 20 KB



Though it is certainly a valid trade if you are trading squeezes, this would not align with my trading system. The H1 candle during that specific move down was only 24% of VER, which is not considered high volatility.
  • #26
  • Oct 13, 2024 7:42am Oct 13, 2024 7:42am
Hi. Thanks for sharing the system. How long have you tried this strategy and what is the success rate? Just wanted to know how you calculate the 20% of the daily ADR value for SL in case of trades going against the position? TIA
  • #27
  • Oct 14, 2024 1:47am Oct 14, 2024 1:47am
Quoting sln
Hi. Thanks for sharing the system. How long have you tried this strategy and what is the success rate? Just wanted to know how you calculate the 20% of the daily ADR value for SL in case of trades going against the position? TIA
I trade the system for a bit more then 2 months.
The succesrate: I will share an excel sheet this week
Atr is just 20% of daily average true range. I use a 10 period
  • #28
  • Oct 14, 2024 5:10am Oct 14, 2024 5:10am
I try to trade it H1 and I see it's not an easy process Maybe I'm wrong.
What is your daily routine? Do you surf H1 charts all the time waiting for one-wick candle + VER jump? Or maybe you have some kind of alerts?
Thank you
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #29
  • Edited 6:21am Oct 14, 2024 5:27am | Edited 6:21am
Quoting since80808
I try to trade it H1 and I see it's not an easy process Maybe I'm wrong. What is your daily routine? Do you surf H1 charts all the time waiting for one-wick candle + VER jump? Or maybe you have some kind of alerts? Thank you
Hi Since

How did you try it Since?

I use the dashboard I created to filter out low-volatility pairs. Typically, there’s nothing at first, but then momentum develops, usually with a few instruments. There is often a lot of correlation when one FX pair moves, for example, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, or EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF.

By using the dashboard, I’m able to monitor all markets. I wait for moments of good momentum and volatility to decide when to buy or sell.

I open the dashboard one hour before the market opens, either at 8:00 CET or 8:00 NYC time.
  • #30
  • Oct 14, 2024 2:14pm Oct 14, 2024 2:14pm
Interesting thread. Created by someone who used brain. Finally. RickM was also right, tho. I see what you do. Good thing is you go buy from bearish candle and vice versa. That's n.1. I do the same. It's the best one can do. But still, something is missing. I know it can be even better. RickM gave you something valuable. When you get it right, you can entry on amazing place even with "low volatility". Even though I agree bigger volatility is better. My system or indicator also work better with high volatility. But there is place where lower volatility give you better entries. Sometimes at least... However I got stuck while working on my system. Something is always missing... And I sadly lost my HDD with all my work. so I can't help you more sadly. I don't remember everything and need to make it from scratch. (Haha...) And because I don't even have computer I'm like... Screwed a bit.

But don't give up, check the idea RickM gave you. It's not BS and trust me, you can use it even for short-term trades. I did it pretty easily before...
  • #31
  • Oct 15, 2024 1:50am Oct 15, 2024 1:50am
Quoting SilentFather
Interesting thread. Created by someone who used brain. Finally. RickM was also right, tho. I see what you do. Good thing is you go buy from bearish candle and vice versa. That's n.1. I do the same. It's the best one can do. But still, something is missing. I know it can be even better. RickM gave you something valuable. When you get it right, you can entry on amazing place even with "low volatility". Even though I agree bigger volatility is better. My system or indicator also work better with high volatility. But there is place where lower volatility...
Hi Silentfather,

Thank you for your thoughts. I agree with you and yes RickM is also right. I do not disagree with him that squeezes offer great opportunities. I am thinking of implement some kind of squeeze strategy. I can make it in my dashboard. If i can measure high volatility I also can do the opposite.

For you do not give up if you made it once you stil have in your head. Most importantly you have the capacity to create
  • #32
  • Last Post: Oct 15, 2024 6:24pm Oct 15, 2024 6:24pm
Quoting martijn25
{quote} Hi Silentfather, Thank you for your thoughts. I agree with you and yes RickM is also right. I do not disagree with him that squeezes offer great opportunities. I am thinking of implement some kind of squeeze strategy. I can make it in my dashboard. If i can measure high volatility I also can do the opposite. For you do not give up if you made it once you stil have in your head. Most importantly you have the capacity to create
For sure friend! If I'll live, then yes. I will do my best. My life Is disaster, so trading is last thing I can think of. :/ You can do the opposite. Also, if you find something, let me know. Might help a lot.

Take care and have fun. :')
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