Lol.
DAC
- #46,405
- Oct 10, 2024 3:49pm Oct 10, 2024 3:49pm
- Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Trader | 5,844 Posts
{quote} short to 2300 just shaking out before the drop … will be a buzz rush if it is the case from now has to happen sooner or later… now is as good as a probability as the next high
Who can guarantee that there won't be ww3 to send gold to the moon? Or a new pandemic? Or a recession to send gold back to 2000?
Future is not certain, i can only speak for today
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
{quote} Maybe. But i stopped trading longer term after doing it for years. Now its only intraday. Because no one knows what it will happen in the future... so i tend to keep myself from speaking in absolutes and making strong statements. Who can guarantee that there won't be ww3 to send gold to the moon? Or a new pandemic? Or a recession to send gold back to 2000?
{quote} Maybe. But i stopped trading longer term after doing it for years. Now its only intraday. Because no one knows what it will happen in the future... so i tend to keep myself from speaking in absolutes and making strong statements. Who can guarantee that there won't be ww3 to send gold to the moon? Or a new pandemic? Or a recession to send gold back to 2000?
general market probability I think stands around 60% will happen soon
- #46,409
- Oct 10, 2024 5:43pm Oct 10, 2024 5:43pm
- Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Trader | 5,844 Posts
{quote} just a note JP Morgan believes 35% chance of recession 2024 end and 45% chance 2025….seems unlikely but a Mini recession is inevitable very soon general market probability I think stands around 60% will happen soon
close to another 2008. Gold dropped to 1600, bitcoin to 15k from 65k. And all the banks and economists were certain there was going to be a very big recession. "Even bigger than 2008", some banks said.Turned out it was a mini recession thart lasted for 7-8 months and markets came out stronger than ever. Nobody expected FED to pull out a soft landing like this.
Now i am not saying you are wrong. You can be right. But as a trader and an economics bachelor all i can say is the indicators we look at to predict booms or recessions are not as reliable as we think. So we can never predict these economic cycles with high accuracy.
In economics we are taught that the yield curve, pmis, building permits, working hours and participation rate are leading indicators. However none of them was able to predict the sudden economic boom in late 2022 and 2023. They all indicated that recession would get deeper and deeper but it didn't happen. Even the yield curve, the most accurate of all, have failed.
Since then i don't take these predictions seriously. Even JPMorgan or Citi. Bc i have followed them, and my economic knowledge back then. But the result was a blown account.
Again, you can be right, and it's really nice that you are into fundamentals. That's rare these days. I am just saying that take what people say with a pinch of salt. Even if its JPMorgan or Citi.
All i know is fundamentals and economics are as messy as the indicators on our charts
They are great tools, but not useful on its own.So my bet is 50% recession and 50% soft landng
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
- #46,412
- Oct 10, 2024 6:20pm Oct 10, 2024 6:20pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,088 Posts
LUCKY golden trades, LUCKY gold investor trading style
- #46,418
- Oct 10, 2024 11:10pm Oct 10, 2024 11:10pm
- Temporarily Suspended | Joined Jul 2021 | 3,677 Posts
{quote} I have lived and traded 2022 mini recession, we were this
Economists are not traders.
Their Opinions are just another opinion, as their forecasting models comes with a lot of assumption.
Yesterday, we saw how unemployment claims took over the CPI.
A freaking weekly data outweighs a fooking CPI.
My bet was on higher than expected CPI(worked with Housing price index, AVG earnings, ISM prices and WTI- to see where the cpi data is tilted), and turned out to be right, yet got stopped.
No one knows where this shit is going. We can only bet on guessing.
If our guessing is right majority of the time, we are already ahead.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!