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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,801
  • Sep 20, 2024 8:40am Sep 20, 2024 8:40am
Quoting LazyTrades
42 weeks of doing absolutely nothing, has been interesting so far. {image}
Ha! Love it
  • #3,802
  • Sep 22, 2024 3:07am Sep 22, 2024 3:07am
Quoting LazyTrades
42 weeks of doing absolutely nothing, has been interesting so far. {image}
what % was you biggest downdraw...
  • #3,803
  • Sep 23, 2024 11:10am Sep 23, 2024 11:10am
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Time to set this one on the market and see what damage I can do with it... hopefully not to my wallet!
  • #3,804
  • Sep 26, 2024 9:29am Sep 26, 2024 9:29am
It's never really occurred to me before as I'm normally a bit on autopilot but just now scalping/hedging UJ on 1 minute I'm just reversing every (failed) trade to see if I can break it.... and i don't seem able to.
So maybe look at your (failed) trades and immediately reverse the logic with bigger size (when they fail) do it like a machine starting on your smallest size 0.01 and see what happens. See if you can get to £10 profit all closed in the next few days.

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  • #3,805
  • Sep 27, 2024 8:58am Sep 27, 2024 8:58am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} what % was you biggest downdraw...
Sorry, been away for a few days, will check and post laters.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,806
  • Sep 27, 2024 10:27am Sep 27, 2024 10:27am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Sorry, been away for a few days, will check and post laters.
No worries, no hurry, thought it might be interesting to know...
  • #3,807
  • Sep 27, 2024 11:57am Sep 27, 2024 11:57am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} No worries, no hurry, thought it might be interesting to know...
Biggest losing stretch was £801 so 8% of deposit, it had a couple of those but yet to see it go over that, 12% in one week was the biggest winning week, otherwise gains have been smaller. Week 38 was the high point at +23%, currently at +14% so had I started at week 38 I'd be down by 9% I suppose, but it's how it performs over the long term I'm interested in with no user input and no prediction - 4500 trades so far, will probably knock it on the head after 52 weeks.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,808
  • Sep 27, 2024 12:03pm Sep 27, 2024 12:03pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Biggest losing stretch was £801 so 8% of deposit, it had a couple of those but yet to see it go over that, 12% in one week was the biggest winning week, otherwise gains have been smaller. Week 38 was the high point at +23%, currently at +14% so had I started at week 38 I'd be down by 9% I suppose, but it's how it performs over the long term I'm interested in with no user input and no prediction - 4500 trades so far, will probably knock it on the head after 52 weeks.
Great work, thanks for the info ....and hard work
  • #3,809
  • Oct 9, 2024 1:46pm Oct 9, 2024 1:46pm
Still yet to see a failed div trade.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,810
  • Oct 9, 2024 1:53pm Oct 9, 2024 1:53pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Still yet to see a failed div trade.
Why is it that we see something that works time and time again but then do very little about it, for me anyways, something to think about , conscious effort from me next week...
  • #3,811
  • Oct 9, 2024 2:28pm Oct 9, 2024 2:28pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Why is it that we see something that works time and time again but then do very little about it, for me anyways, something to think about , conscious effort from me next week...
I'm guilty of this as well, I couldn't trade at 4.30 UK so I've been running an EA for a few weeks (ok, so hardly conclusive) which places a trade at 4.29 UK regardless, it's running on my other EA demo account with IG. My live IG account had expired so had to open a new one and will be letting loose on this as soon as I get my ducks lined up. Be nice to have a ton of FTSE 1min data to backtest, but using what I have has shown promising results as well as the history on the thread.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,812
  • Oct 10, 2024 4:16am Oct 10, 2024 4:16am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} I'm guilty of this as well, I couldn't trade at 4.30 UK so I've been running an EA for a few weeks (ok, so hardly conclusive) which places a trade at 4.29 UK regardless, it's running on my other EA demo account with IG. My live IG account had expired so had to open a new one and will be letting loose on this as soon as I get my ducks lined up. Be nice to have a ton of FTSE 1min data to backtest, but using what I have has shown promising results as well as the history on the thread.
Hi LazyTrades, I saw that IG has an API to download historical data, but it requires a real account. Out of curiosity, how many months have you been able to backtest?
A few months ago I remember doing a manual check, and I found a couple of occurrences where the gap had not been closed
  • #3,813
  • Oct 10, 2024 9:05am Oct 10, 2024 9:05am
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Hi LazyTrades, I saw that IG has an API to download historical data, but it requires a real account. Out of curiosity, how many months have you been able to backtest? A few months ago I remember doing a manual check, and I found a couple of occurrences where the gap had not been closed
Hi Fiox, with 1min data I was only able to go back a few months if I remember right. I wouldn't be surprised if the gap didn't close occasionally but the hit rate looks very high. Like all scenarios there's always the outlier, so make a plan for that would be my strategy?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,814
  • Oct 10, 2024 10:43am Oct 10, 2024 10:43am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hi Fiox, with 1min data I was only able to go back a few months if I remember right. I wouldn't be surprised if the gap didn't close occasionally but the hit rate looks very high. Like all scenarios there's always the outlier, so make a plan for that would be my strategy?
Thanks LazyTrades. I've been watching these events closely lately, and I'm also looking for solutions to avoid outliers (averaging systems also work very well but are affected by this problem). Taking this opportunity to share a view of the last month testing with random entries/hedging/averaging system, impressive for me

Cheers
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  • #3,815
  • Oct 10, 2024 12:42pm Oct 10, 2024 12:42pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Thanks LazyTrades. I've been watching these events closely lately, and I'm also looking for solutions to avoid outliers (averaging systems also work very well but are affected by this problem). Taking this opportunity to share a view of the last month testing with random entries/hedging/averaging system, impressive for me Cheers {image}
Looking good
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,816
  • Oct 10, 2024 2:10pm Oct 10, 2024 2:10pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Thanks LazyTrades. I've been watching these events closely lately, and I'm also looking for solutions to avoid outliers (averaging systems also work very well but are affected by this problem). Taking this opportunity to share a view of the last month testing with random entries/hedging/averaging system, impressive for me Cheers {image}
Good but 58% ROI in 1 month is too high.
Guess you are risking too much or you have been very very lucky.
Try backtesting over +5 years minimum
Cheers
  • #3,817
  • Oct 10, 2024 2:51pm Oct 10, 2024 2:51pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Good but 58% ROI in 1 month is too high. Guess you are risking too much or you have been very very lucky. Try backtesting over +5 years minimum Cheers
Yes, I agree with you, these are aggressive settings. MT4 backtest is not very reliable, using dukascopy data I got +900$ in the same period in which in forward test I got +3k. I will try to convert to MT5 soon to see if the backtest is better
  • #3,818
  • Oct 16, 2024 12:12pm Oct 16, 2024 12:12pm
Another FTSE Div success story today.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,819
  • Oct 16, 2024 12:20pm Oct 16, 2024 12:20pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Another FTSE Div success story today.
Only 0.96 today, so not worth it.
  • #3,820
  • Oct 16, 2024 12:28pm Oct 16, 2024 12:28pm
Quoting zola
{quote} Only 0.96 today, so not worth it.
Agreed, but another drop and hit behaviour pattern, albeit small this week.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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