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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,661
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:56am Jul 20, 2007 9:56am
Here is something to think about. If one decides to hold a longer term position short in this pair, because they believe it will be going down for a while, the interest can be costly at $26.50 per
standard lot at IBFX (prices vary at different brokers, but the concept is the same)

I generally will sell GBPUSD and sell USDJPY instead. this is the same thing provided you get the lot ratio correct, but you collect .30 from the GBPUSD and only pay $14.30 for the USDJPY, which means you get a savings of over $12.00 in interest each day per standard lot.

Of course you must pay for the extra spread, but GBPJPY is usually from 4 to 10 pips and USDJPY is from 2 to 4 pips and GBPUSD is from 2 to 4 pips, so even with two spreads, the total spread is about the same.
  • #8,662
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:07am Jul 20, 2007 10:07am
Quoting jasonowl
Woah.. Got caught in some very poor Positions in GJ on that last move.
Gotta sit on it for some time...
I got several good positions, but the one bad one was scary. I was trying to adjust SL and my position got locked, never seen it happen before in my live trading! (or demo) I was able to close it though before it got evil by using a different button.
  • #8,663
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:16am Jul 20, 2007 10:16am
My positions were all Long, at ridiculous lvls (250.59, 250.30 and 249.58) now that I'm looking at it.. haha...
I'm okay with the drawdown, just have to steady myself, go back to TA/Fibs, and slowly clear this away. I hate walking away with a loss...

Quoting j5000
I got several good positions, but the one bad one was scary. I was trying to adjust SL and my position got locked, never seen it happen before in my live trading! (or demo) I was able to close it though before it got evil by using a different button.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #8,664
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:17am Jul 20, 2007 10:17am
Quoting MKTrader
I told that JPY is very strognly in remain of 2007!
Great as usual MK

where are you all this time? why you don't post?
  • #8,665
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:21am Jul 20, 2007 10:21am
Thanks for sharing your strategy. Are they equivalent exactly though? Is 1 GBP/JPY = 1 GBP/USD + 1 USD/JPY

Doesn't USD/JPY have to be adjusted?

Thanks,

Frank

Quoting smjones
Here is something to think about. If one decides to hold a longer term position short in this pair, because they believe it will be going down for a while, the interest can be costly at $26.50 per
standard lot at IBFX (prices vary at different brokers, but the concept is the same)

I generally will sell GBPUSD and sell USDJPY instead. this is the same thing provided you get the lot ratio correct, but you collect .30 from the GBPUSD and only pay $14.30 for the USDJPY, which means you get a savings of over $12.00 in interest each day per standard lot.

Of course you must pay for the extra spread, but GBPJPY is usually from 4 to 10 pips and USDJPY is from 2 to 4 pips and GBPUSD is from 2 to 4 pips, so even with two spreads, the total spread is about the same.
  • #8,666
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:24am Jul 20, 2007 10:24am
Quoting frank99
Thanks for sharing your strategy. Are they equivalent exactly though? Is 1 GBP/JPY = 1 GBP/USD + 1 USD/JPY

Doesn't USD/JPY have to be adjusted?

Thanks,

Frank
Exactly. Please reread my post, "provided you get the ratio correct"

Not so much a strategy as a way of saving some dough....LOL
  • #8,667
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:31am Jul 20, 2007 10:31am
smjones,

Thanks. I missed that detail. do you know how it's calculated using current rates? I used to have this down pretty good, but haven't done it in a while.
Or if you have a link for it, that will be helpfull too.

Frank


Quoting smjones
Exactly. Please reread my post, "provided you get the ratio correct"

Not so much a strategy as a way of saving some dough....LOL
  • #8,668
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:43am Jul 20, 2007 10:43am
Quoting frank99
smjones,

Thanks. I missed that detail. do you know how it's calculated using current rates? I used to have this down pretty good, but haven't done it in a while.
Or if you have a link for it, that will be helpfull too.

Frank
Well I am not sure if this is the most effiecient way, but what I do is convert everything into dollars and then make the comparison.

The way to do this is:

A pip is calculated by dividing the smallest increment for a given currency by the current exchange rate.
Using the GBPJPY as an example you would get: 0.01/233.18 = 0.0000428
This is expressed in terms of the base currency which in this case is the GBP. To convert to US Dollars you must multiply by the GBPUSD exchange rate which is currently 1.9592.
0.0000428 x 1.9592 = 0.0000838
To convert this to a standard lot you multiply by $100,000
0.0000838 x $100,000 = 8.38
As a general rule most pairs not ending in USD are around 8 pips and all pairs ending in USD are 10 pips. The only big exception to this is the EURGBP. This rule of thumb only applies to the majors.

Quoted from another post I forget who's sorry. but the formula is correct and easy to figure
  • #8,669
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:45am Jul 20, 2007 10:45am
Mr Yen has put back some confidence and wisdom in my trading. This certainly came thro FF. I'm happy today after live-trading for three years and blowing the account many times. All the simple bookish knowledge of Resistance/support, tunnel, pin, triangles double tops, 'exhausted' now make some sense.
Had I not been a FF member perhaps I would have quit trading long time back.
I thank FF and all the nice people who contributed selflessly for others to pick and improve.
  • #8,670
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:57am Jul 20, 2007 10:57am
Scott,

Thanks! I appreciate it. I will go through this and try to figure it out (again).



Frank


Quoting smjones
Well I am not sure if this is the most effiecient way, but what I do is convert everything into dollars and then make the comparison.

The way to do this is:

A pip is calculated by dividing the smallest increment for a given currency by the current exchange rate.
Using the GBPJPY as an example you would get: 0.01/233.18 = 0.0000428
This is expressed in terms of the base currency which in this case is the GBP. To convert to US Dollars you must multiply by the GBPUSD exchange rate which is currently 1.9592.
0.0000428 x 1.9592 = 0.0000838
To convert this to a standard lot you multiply by $100,000
0.0000838 x $100,000 = 8.38
As a general rule most pairs not ending in USD are around 8 pips and all pairs ending in USD are 10 pips. The only big exception to this is the EURGBP. This rule of thumb only applies to the majors.

Quoted from another post I forget who's sorry. but the formula is correct and easy to figure
  • #8,671
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:15pm Jul 20, 2007 12:15pm
does it continue on the short?

or is this it
  • #8,672
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:18pm Jul 20, 2007 12:18pm
Hi guys... I just lost 100 pips. But hey thats OK thats only 2% of my account. This is going to go down atleast 500 pips. when I first mentioned that on this thread yesteraday some experts didnt agree with me. this is going to be a major correction with atleast 500 pips down. so tie up your belts and go short.
  • #8,673
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:24pm Jul 20, 2007 12:24pm
go short @ 249 it will retrace back to 249 monday Jap session. TP @ 245.52
  • #8,674
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:26pm Jul 20, 2007 12:26pm
good day


im wait for buy
  • #8,675
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:46pm Jul 20, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting benssol
Great as usual MK

where are you all this time? why you don't post?
Hi,

Yes i know and i'm sorry
But i'm a long-term trader so i post to late.
Actually when i confirmation main trend on GJ i open several positions in diferrent time, i open new position when my current position(last position) is +100 pips also i protect first +50 pips per position(move s/l).


Thank you.
With Regards, MKTrader Not Risk Not Gain!
  • #8,676
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:49pm Jul 20, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting persian.forex
good day


im wait for buy
if you go for buy you may have to wait for sometime untill it comes back to break even.
  • #8,677
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:55pm Jul 20, 2007 12:55pm
Why you so sure this is a correction to 245?

You dont think this is just a typical minor sell-off due to the hike in interest rate to lenders? I think 6.5% whichi is China third hike since March.

Quoting auslanco
if you go for buy you may have to wait for sometime untill it comes back to break even.
  • #8,678
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:56pm Jul 20, 2007 12:56pm
Hello everyone,

The pair took a downhill trip while I was comatose. Currently, the monthly chart shows the main trend up while min trend down. Meanwhile, the weekly chart shows main and mini trends both down, the daily chart shows min trend up but main trend unclear and the 2 lines of MACD merging in one: things are pretty mixed.

It is dangerous to short. At any rate, it is safer to go long since one earns interest while being stuck. One just have to have enough margin to cover until the pair price is in the black again. I play it safe and sit on the fence until Monday then. IMHO, there are many opportunities to make profits without anxiety . BR
  • #8,679
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:00pm Jul 20, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting newjersey24
Why you so sure this is a correction to 245?

You dont think this is just a typical minor sell-off due to the hike in interest rate to lenders? I think 6.5% whichi is China third hike since March.
Daily trend was bearish from 11th July
4 hr trend just got bearish from 12 EST 20th July
so any one who wants to go north should be out of their mind
  • #8,680
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:02pm Jul 20, 2007 1:02pm
I guess it's BR Vs me
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