Spuds Stochastic Thread TRADES Factory

I found spud's system very interesting but this thread needed a Trade only thread so I felt like doing the honor. Please post your trades or even past results using only spuds stoch thread theory Thanks.

Here is my first entry GBP/USD short at 2.0519

It's a good idea ForexExpert310 to open this thread !
I'm starting again to study all MTF Stochastic from our fantastic SpudFyre, and I want to thank him again for all his capacity to teach in a simple way all this complicated stuff about stochastics

Speaking about your trade , I saw too that possible entry but I decided to not enter in that situation on gbpusd since we are in a big uptrend and i couldn't see any evidence of a secondary downtrend , so to be more conservative I stayed out. Anyway that trade developed in a good way and leads to positive pips as far as I can see now

Here is a trade I put on, last night, at the London open. As you can see, in the hour before the London open, price made a little run up. What usually happens is that there is a reversal at the London open. It happens so regularly, that I have traded it with great success many times before. Consequently, as we were heading into the London open and I saw both the M15 & M30 stochs @ 80 and starting to turn down, and the M30 over 50 and converging, I entered short in anticipation of the turn down in price.

In my mind, as price had been stalled out on the H4 after the steep run up on Tuesday, the early entry short was a pretty safe bet, so I didn't feel the need to wait for the confirmation of either the H1 or H4. So this still wasn't a "textbook" entry by Spudfyre's rules.

I didn't know how far price would go down, but since I wanted to get sleep rather than stay awake and watch the market, I set a modest take profit at 20 pips and went to bed.

It was rather nice to wake up to a successful trade having been completed! I also had a really ugly trade on the GBP/JPY that also hit a 20 pip take profit while I was sleeping. I'm not quite sure I want to post the chart for that trade, though, because it was not the greatest setup in the world, and I was just fairly lucky that it worked out.

I am also looking at taking a trade long on the GBP/USD this morning. Whenever there is a good steep run down in price during the London session, very often there is a retracement at the NY open. Right now, the M15, M30, & H1 stochs are all below 20 and turning up. Even though H4 is almost straight down, I think that the 50% retracement level would be a pretty safe bet. We'll see....

As you can see from the attached chart, Price had come down sharply during the London session. When that happens, there is usually a retracement in the NY session. As you can see from the chart, at the time of the NY open the M15, M30, and H1 stochs were all below 20. M15 and M30 were turning up. H1 hadn't starting going up yet, and H4 was nearly straight down but, again, this was a countertrend trade. Also, my stop was in real tight, so not much money was at risk.

I put a take profit order in because I was going to be at work and would not be able to monitor the trade actively. As you can see, even though the M15 and M30 stochs went up and down after entering the trade, the H1 stayed nice and steady. There was never any doubt that the take profit would be met. I chose the 50% retracement level because that was a little safer, but I wish I would have chosen 61.8%. Oh well, that's 40 pips over 2 trades in the last 12 hours with very little risk or worry.

GBP/USD closed for 12+pips
tommy how come your not using the new rope method?

last night i shorted nzd/jpy also but i luckly got out 4+ pips look what happened without any warning or sign of exit even though im still confused about the exits this method is pretty risky in some ways

That's a good question. I guess, for me, I really like seeing the four separate time frames with separate candle patterns and separate stochastics for each. It just makes more sense to me, visually. The more I think about it, I'm pretty sure that it's because I like seeing the different candle pattern across mutiple time frames. If I only look at the 15 min chart, then the candle patterns maybe completely unrecognizable to me. But, by looking at M30, H1, and H4 I can see candle patterns that aren't visible on the lower tf charts.

I also have gone back to the MTF Stochastic "roots" in the sense that I am using 5,3,3 and 80/20 levels, not 14,3,3 and 76.4/23.6. Settings of 5,3,3 and 80/20 levels give faster signals.

It's just a individual preference. I believe that Spudfyre would probably say that the individual settings are not what is important. What is important is coordinating the signals across multiple time frames.

I think there might actually have been some warning. As you entered the trade short, price came down, but it was coming into a pretty strong area of prior support/resistance. Take a look at the candle at the very base. If you turned it into a candle, rather than a bar, you'd see the super long lower wick strongly rejecting lower prices and corfirming the prior support level. That one candle, alone, virtually screamed "price is going the other way". It would have been time to close out immediately, or move your stop in super tight right after that candle.

Have you read Steve Nison's book "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques"? If you haven't I strongly reccomend it. With a good knowledge of candlesticks and horizontal support/resistance levels you can often predict a price reversal in one candlestick.

Good luck.

AH I see, which currencies do you mostly trade with?

I tend to stick with currencies that show good volatility. I want to be able to cover the spread and get into profit pretty quickly. Consequently, I usually trade the GBP/USD, the GBP/JPY, or the EUR/JPY. Sometimes I'll trade the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY, but not often.

Hello Tommy,

Great job! I appreciate your contribution. I approach the Spud method somewhat similar to you except I dont the knowledge to utilize candlesticks formations in my trades. You have mentioned in a previous post that when any stoch flattens out in a over/under sold area, that tells you that we are in a ranging market. Can you clarify that for me because in my observations of price action and comments by Spud, many times price continues to go up in the o/u zone eventhough the stoch may flattened out.


Thanks

Well, moneda, I think I need to make a retraction on that. My earlier statement was based more upon viewing candlestick patterns in one specific instance, rather than really judging stochastics behavior in general. Upon looking at a lot of different currency pairs' past charts, I do see that when the stochs are flattened out, either above 80 or below 20, price does USUALLY continue to either rise or fall. As I said, I was basing my observation on one particular pair at one specific time, and really had more to do with candle patterns than stochastics.

Sorry if I confused anyone.

Hey Tommy,

No problem, that is the beauty of this thread.... we are all questioning and learning. Again, thanks for your posts.

Hey everyone,

Here's the chart from a trade I took on the GBP/JPY this Sunday evening. I took it because I saw a nice double bottom formation on the H1, bullish engulfing patterns on M15, M30, and H1, M15 & M30 stochs turned up. H1 wasn't turned up, yet, but I thought that the M15 & M30 would pull it up. As it turns out, they didn't. Or, at least, they haven't yet. Consequently, I decided to get out with a quick 17 pip profit and wait a little bit for the H1 stoch to get its act together.

By the way, if there is anyone who reads this tonight, the GBP/USD looks ripe for a really good short trade. I'll be watching that one tonight, as well as reentering the GBP/JPY long.

hi Tommy_C
keep posting here your results but it would be great also to see you in the trading room. MTF traders. we chat there and put threads charts in realtime.
greetings

I thought I'd give an update as to how I have been doing so far with this system. I don't have any charts to post, yet, as there would be too many to post one for every trade this week. Here is a summary of this week's trades:

19 trades
12 wins
7 losses
63.15% W/L ratio

299 pips gained
197 pips lost
102 net pips

Avg win: 24.91
Avg loss: 21.88

Avg pips/day: 34

When looking at these stats, I can honestly say that I have made some really boneheaded trades this week so the number of losses and the size of the losses could have been (and should have been) smaller. I have definitely learned some lessons that should help me improve on that. Moreover, the size of the wins could have been much larger. I was trading with rather conservative take profit orders, instead of letting the trades run until the H1 stochastic had crossed the 80/20 barrier. If I had let my trades run, I could have added over 100 pips to the net.

Still and all, I averaged 25 pips a day over all my trades last week, and I am averaging 34 pips/day this week, in spite of my all too frequent hastiness.

I hope others are experiencing the same, or better, results.

very nice daily rope.... GO LONG !!!!!!

The Stoch Rope is awesome!

May latest trade on G/U

ok.. yesterday was a bad entry for that rope.... because it didn't cross the 23.6 level yet.. but now it's time to see it....