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Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

  • #341
  • Sep 20, 2024 2:47am Sep 20, 2024 2:47am
Quoting Nordling
IMPORTANT UPDATE for the newbies that visit this thread to gain knowledge: I don't trade this way anymore. Back in that time it was useful, had a consistent run for over a year but the market structure has changed, the importance of the news have changed since then. So this trading strategy is outdated and not relevant anymore. This strategy was created and used by me back in the days of the pandemic. And the economy is so different than the pandemic days now. Times have changed, the market reacts to news differently. I am thinking about opening...
Very gracious of you to even inform people that your strategy here is outdated, mate I'm definitely curious to see how you've grown in your trading journey! Would love to hear more about your new strategy.
Trying my best.
  • #342
  • Edited 12:50pm Sep 20, 2024 4:45am | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Very gracious of you to even inform people that your strategy here is outdated, mate I'm definitely curious to see how you've grown in your trading journey! Would love to hear more about your new strategy.
Thank u so much mate! It's nice to see you here, it's been a long time How's your trading going? How's the life treating u? Since this thread is dead, feel free to share your experience and approach here, im really curious if you have reached your targets and if you have found consistency. I hope you did!

I myself faced a long, rocky path in front of me when i realised that this strategy is outdated. I kinda hit the rock bottom, Took a break from trading and from the forum to clear my mind and fight the depression it gave me. Losing money is ok, losing hope was the worst. That was in late 2022. I never touched a buy or a sell button until the summer of 2023.

I realised the worst thing is not being a newbie and being unprofitable, worst feeling is that you have found success and saw enough consistency to believe you will make it, but then you things take a turn, you start to lose your money on a basis, losing your condifence along the way, questioning everything you deemed as "truth" and start from the 0 with a worn out psychology and a damaged self-esteem. I am going in detail in case some newbies, new members read it so they realise how bad of a rollercoaster trading is.

I was in a constant search for a long time since then. I analysed my mistakes, the market structure. I can say i have never missed a single news event since the summer of 2023 (northern hemisphere ) i backtested, real time tested, demo traded, prop traded, noted down everything i saw about the market structure.

Finally in 2024 i have seen consistent results and got confident with the way i trade again. I used to be a position trader. now i consider myself as a day trader.

Here are some of my rules that i suggest to everyone:

1. The longer you keep your positions, higher the risk. Only trade when there is volatility. Anything can happen in this world; wars, central bank interventions (which we saw a lot from BoJ this year) and we even saw assasination attempts to president candidates. World is a crazy place, and markets are directly affected by these crazy stuff. You can never know what's going to happen next, so i tend to focus on the shorter periods of time where my chances are higher when it comes to guessing the market direction. I don't wanna wake up to some crazy news that caused a loss. I try to keep it short and predictable.

2. I still believe in the superiority of the fundamentals in the market so i trade the news events. However, i use technicals and candlesticks to time my entries and exits. I don't want be too late or too soon.

3. I believe that digging into the details of the economic reports are much more important than just looking at consensus and actual numbers. Everyone can look up if CPI was higher or lower than expected. Trading solely based on that is something everyone can. Which is why it's not profitable (anymore). Digging in to the report and judging if the report is actually good or bad for the currency is the way to go, rather than just judging it by the headline numbers.

These are pretty much the basis of my trading right now. Those are the hard rules that i follow
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  • #343
  • Oct 2, 2024 8:24pm Oct 2, 2024 8:24pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} Thank u so much mate! It's nice to see you here, it's been a long time How's your trading going? How's the life treating u? Since this thread is dead, feel free to share your experience and approach here, im really curious if you have reached your targets and if you have found consistency. I hope you did! I myself faced a long, rocky path in front of me when i realised that this strategy is outdated. I kinda hit the rock bottom, Took a break from trading and from the forum to clear my mind and fight the depression...
Life's been fine, mate Very glad to hear you're still on your journey! The past year hasn't been as consistent as I want it to be, I struggle currently with how geopolitical events are affecting economic policies. I haven't yet come close to losing my capital; uncertain times like this mean I get to practice my risk assessment and management. I suppose in that sense, I am still succeeding What earnings I have made over the past few years I've now withdrawn from my trading account. It's been a great help to my family's finances!

That said, consistency still eludes me. My strategy has not changed much from when we last spoke, except that I've streamlined my technical analysis to just Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Fibonacci retracement. I still prefer to operate on longer timeframes. It is fascinating to hear that you're now trading intraday! It's quite a large departure from the trading style you had years ago. It seems you're exploring a new method, and I'm happy to know you haven't given up despite all the troubles. Thanks for telling me a bit about your current strategy! Would love to know more if you have the time to journal in this thread

All in all, it's great to hear from you. You were instrumental to my development as a trader years ago
Trying my best.
  • #344
  • Edited Oct 4, 2024 1:53am Oct 3, 2024 7:32pm | Edited Oct 4, 2024 1:53am
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Life's been fine, mate Very glad to hear you're still on your journey! The past year hasn't been as consistent as I want it to be, I struggle currently with how geopolitical events are affecting economic policies. I haven't yet come close to losing my capital; uncertain times like this mean I get to practice my risk assessment and management. I suppose in that sense, I am still succeeding What earnings I have made over the past few years I've now withdrawn from my trading account. It's been a great help to my family's...
You have always been very good at managing your risk and that's the most important thing. We all have loses, no one has 100% win rate. So its nice to cut the losses short and also cash out profits regularly so we dont end up losing a painful amount of money. Very wise choices buddy I am also glad that this trading thing is helping you financially. Sadly many guys in trading have the gambling mindset including myself in the past.

Yeah, moving from position trading, holding trades over weeks to daytrading and holding trades from 30 minutes to 2 hours is one hell of a change

Well, i just saw that when i was a position trader my positive trades were hammered by random events in the world. Wars, central bank interventions, random politician/bureauocrat making a hawkish/dovish speech. And when you hold trades for weeks, the risk of getting caught by these events just keep rising. I was not able to sleep at one point. I was constantly watching bloomberg, keeping an eye on news services and FF news section. It's draining. And you can't keep up with it and it affects your winrate negatively no matter how careful you are.

That's why i find long timespans more complex and risky, while a short period of time is much more predictable. It also allows me a better life & trading balance. I can trade for an hour or two, close my trades and do whatever i want without worrying about if im losing money or not. Living with that stress really took a toll on my mental health back when i was a longer term position trader.

So now i suggest everyone to daytrade but ofc not to overtrade. It's still not a 9-5 job where you should sit in front of the screen for 8 or more hours. That's overtrading

Oh and while i suggest daytrading, i don't suggest forcing yourself to trade everyday. Trade when you feel like the time is right, when you feel like you have an edge, when you know what is going on in the markets so the odds are in your favour. For me that's news releases, for someone else it can be finding a quality setup etc. but yeah the point is i daytrade but i don't trade everyday
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #345
  • Oct 7, 2024 5:40am Oct 7, 2024 5:40am
Quoting Nordling
{quote} You have always been very good at managing your risk and that's the most important thing. We all have loses, no one has 100% win rate. So its nice to cut the losses short and also cash out profits regularly so we dont end up losing a painful amount of money. Very wise choices buddy I am also glad that this trading thing is helping you financially. Sadly many guys in trading have the gambling mindset including myself in the past. Yeah, moving from position trading, holding trades over weeks to daytrading and holding trades from 30 minutes...
That's why i find long timespans more complex and risky, while a short period of time is much more predictable. It also allows me a better life & trading balance. I can trade for an hour or two, close my trades and do whatever i want without worrying about if im losing money or not. Living with that stress really took a toll on my mental health back when i was a longer term position trader.

Very well written.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #346
  • Oct 7, 2024 5:43am Oct 7, 2024 5:43am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} That's why i find long timespans more complex and risky, while a short period of time is much more predictable. It also allows me a better life & trading balance. I can trade for an hour or two, close my trades and do whatever i want without worrying about if im losing money or not. Living with that stress really took a toll on my mental health back when i was a longer term position trader. Very well written.
Thanks man! Love your signature btw
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #347
  • Edited 6:50pm Mar 30, 2025 6:14pm | Edited 6:50pm
Looking at fundamentals, it points to GBPUSD should be bearish, but not so fast, make no mistake. What it points to is that stock market should be bullish like s&p500, the big thing here is tariffs, it is geopolitical and sometimes AAII investors are not confident and bullish, so they take their money somewhere, this is why we see a sell off on s&p500. Trump and his administration, they want Dollar bearish, looks like Dollar will be bearish this year 2025 maybe into 2026. I think economically it will be very tough this year 2025, maybe 2026 will get better. If they priced in tariffs on stock market, we should see s&p500 going back up, and it will be good time to buy that index and hold. Corrections do happen on s&p500, but it is not advisable to sell this index, because in history or historically it is always bullish. Every time it does corrections, trader should be looking to add buys and add more money. As for GBPUSD at the moment, due to Dollar weakness, GBPUSD is bullish. Adding more buys on this pair.

COT report shows that GBP added more longs, and s&p500 added more shorts.
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  • #348
  • Mar 30, 2025 6:57pm Mar 30, 2025 6:57pm
Due to geopolitical tariffs and uncertainty, Gold benefits from it, so still holding long on gold and trailing stop loss, the three positions if they hit stop loss will be a profit the fourth one would be a loss. If it goes further up to 3171 I will trail the stop loss and all four positions will be in profit.
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  • #349
  • Mar 31, 2025 10:48am Mar 31, 2025 10:48am
In order for me to be more convinced that the stock market is turning bullish is, I will have to see gold correcting to the downside, Dollar is bearish. Market has still not pulled back 20% which it is around 4917 price on s&p500. On the other side, when I see fear in the market, and majority are selling, that is a big opportunity to start looking to buy, that is where institutional traders and investors are looking to buy on other traders fear. Since majority are fear, I do believe that we should see bullish market again soon. That of course leads to April 02 liberation day, if there is no tariffs on auto, that will be good news, if there is tariffs on auto, that will cause s&p500 to fall further which it could be short term potential opportunity to sell. US economy looks stronger then UK, so if auto tariffs are cancelled on April 02, stock market should go up, dollar down, gold possibly down. The most important news i watch are 3 stars impact but also pay attention to 2 stars impact, tomorrow JOLTs job opening.
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  • #350
  • Mar 31, 2025 11:43am Mar 31, 2025 11:43am
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  • #351
  • Mar 31, 2025 11:50am Mar 31, 2025 11:50am
We want to see 10 years yield to fall further, we do not want to see rate hikes, and we do not want to see yields up, we need them down.
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  • #352
  • Mar 31, 2025 12:14pm Mar 31, 2025 12:14pm
Possible outcome of s&p500 on April 02 2025.
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  • #353
  • Apr 30, 2025 10:27am Apr 30, 2025 10:27am
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  • #354
  • Last Post: May 2, 2025 5:48am May 2, 2025 5:48am
Quoting ib1985ib
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This could change and fall further. Summer is coming, maybe US stocks and dollar will recover for the time being. Maybe tariffs bad news were priced in already.
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