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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,601
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:44am Jul 20, 2007 3:44am
Quoting Timingy
Looks like the market doesn't want to wait for the GDP release and decided to press ahead! Bah

UJ up GU down and GJ up starting to take hold.
Nothing - we're rite where we were before the release. Stuck, grounded.....GU UJ right where they were.

Looks like its going to be a slow ride up!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
  • #8,602
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:47am Jul 20, 2007 3:47am
my current positions for GJ

8 lots enterd Long @ 250.39

3 lots Exit @ 250.89
3 Lots exit @ 251.30
2 Lots exit @ 251.90
SL 249.75

  • #8,603
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:50am Jul 20, 2007 3:50am
Quoting auslanco
Glad I didnt trust you GU will go south for a major correction in the next couple of days. That means GJ might go north.
If GU goes south, GJ can't go north far.
  • #8,604
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:50am Jul 20, 2007 3:50am
Now GJ is at the top for the last 20 years. It is possible to go north, but I will miss that ride.
GL
Quoting trader8686
Should we still long GJ after the current 4h close above 250.51?
Now, only 18 min left. Hello.....?
It’s just emotions & money
  • #8,605
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:51am Jul 20, 2007 3:51am
stuck zzzzzzzzz
"it doesn't come any sharper than this!"
  • #8,606
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:57am Jul 20, 2007 3:57am

Quoting DR.ich
stuck zzzzzzzzz


LOL same here
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #8,607
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:59am Jul 20, 2007 3:59am
Quoting trader8686
If GU goes south, GJ can't go north far.
It still can go long way in opposite directions in normal market conditions
since it's a carry trade and all carry trades are strengthening ..
  • #8,608
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:09am Jul 20, 2007 4:09am
Long order triggered at 250.55,...
Waiting for uj to bounce up again,...
  • #8,609
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:10am Jul 20, 2007 4:10am
I think GJ will be choppy untill the US open and then start a ralley towards 252. But do I want to leave my positions open during NY session on a firday ????
  • #8,610
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:12am Jul 20, 2007 4:12am
Most likely, next week is the week to short this pair.
(Just my personal humble openion)
  • #8,611
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:15am Jul 20, 2007 4:15am

talkin about rally...im rally myself without a sleep for last 27 hours...

for me the fact is UK GDP is 8.0...and im gonna start my weekend now...
happy trading every one..

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #8,612
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:17am Jul 20, 2007 4:17am
Quoting trader8686
Most likely, next week is the week to short this pair.
(Just my personal humble openion)
August is the month that shorts are in for the GJ, last 6 years or so.

All longs in for the 252.11 ride, and possibly 254 next week. then will consider dumping a bunch then

Trade smart and have fun.

CU at NY Session
  • #8,613
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:25am Jul 20, 2007 4:25am
GJ

4 hr momentum Bull/Nuetral
Daily momentum Neutral
Hourly momentum Bull



No wonder it's choppy
  • #8,614
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:29am Jul 20, 2007 4:29am
251 broken...
  • #8,615
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:29am Jul 20, 2007 4:29am
carry trade is on
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #8,616
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:32am Jul 20, 2007 4:32am
Quoting monarch
August is the month that shorts are in for the GJ, last 6 years or so.

All longs in for the 252.11 ride, and possibly 254 next week. then will consider dumping a bunch then

Trade smart and have fun.

CU at NY Session
But, the USD/JPY is still under the 122.61 resistance (it's been there for whole week) - never mind, 251 has been broken.
  • #8,617
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:51am Jul 20, 2007 4:51am
Quoting monarch
August is the month that shorts are in for the GJ, last 6 years or so.

All longs in for the 252.11 ride, and possibly 254 next week. then will consider dumping a bunch then

Trade smart and have fun.

CU at NY Session

Monarch, in your experience in the last 6 years, how deep is the dumping of GBPJPY can do to the price, in terms of % or pips values (500-1000 pips?) so that I can prepare for the dips? Thanks
  • #8,618
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:02am Jul 20, 2007 5:02am
Quoting monarch
August is the month that shorts are in for the GJ, last 6 years or so.
The last 2 years GBPJPY has been going up in august. Actually, in 2007, august was the best month for the longs. But the 6 years before that august was always down, so there is a seasonal effect.

But consider this:
Due to holidays, liquidity drops in August. The carry trade has really taking off the past few years and hasn't been stronger since, and with reduce liquidity it doesn't need much to maintain an uptrend. Remember, it pays 5,25% to be long on this baby and with minimal leverage that beats any bank account.....
So no need to close those longs as long as there's no serious carry unwind.

Nevertheless, I'll be watching for any signs of a drop in August, as always....
  • #8,619
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:12am Jul 20, 2007 5:12am
Quoting BaasHarm!
The last 2 years GBPJPY has been going up in august. Actually, in 2007, august was the best month for the longs. But the 6 years before that august was always down, so there is a seasonal effect.

But consider this:
Due to holidays, liquidity drops in August. The carry trade has really taking off the past few years and hasn't been stronger since, and with reduce liquidity it doesn't need much to maintain an uptrend. Remember, it pays 5,25% to be long on this baby and with minimal leverage that beats any bank account.....
So no need to close those longs as long as there's no serious carry unwind.

Nevertheless, I'll be watching for any signs of a drop in August, as always....

By the way there is a high probability that BoJ could hike their interest rates in August. According to bloomberg there is a 30% chance the next rate hike could be 50 points. then shit hits the fan for long carry trades. there will be a min 1000pip downtrend if that happens.
  • #8,620
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:24am Jul 20, 2007 5:24am
Quoting auslanco
By the way there is a high probability that BoJ could hike their interest rates in August. According to bloomberg there is a 30% chance the next rate hike could be 50 points. then shit hits the fan for long carry trades. there will be a min 1000pip downtrend if that happens.
I tend to agree with you here, they have to do something before their currency becomes worthless.
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