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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,561
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:01am Jul 20, 2007 1:01am
Quoting monarch
Based upon the consolidation from 7-17 to present, the price has retraced to the 23.6% fibo line, but has struggled in efforts to go down to the 38.2% fibo at 249.39.

The 4 Hour candle close at 1AM EST at 250.41 and reached a high of 250.46.

The upper line of 250.51 is the key line to breach on the upward move, but maintains a range of 250.51 down to 249.72.

We are now into our 17th 4 hour candles in a range of 250.51 down to 249.58, which is only 93 pips.

The median for the range is 250.04/11.

The 4 hour candle that just closed at 1am EST low was 250.15, just above the median line of 04/11.

News comes out of GB at 4:30 am EST, with no major news following in the US Session, so expect the GU to lead the way here today once the London Opens and the news is released.

Watching key lines on the GU and the UJ also during this session as per post # 8554

Once we close above the 250.51 line, the projected target would be 251.90/95 and possibly 253.91 based upon information from Fixme1too and Fibo extension I have charted. See post # 8548 for projected targes.
Thanks Monarch - whats your forecast if we have -ve news out of UK and we see UJ strength and GU drop? Where does that leave GJ?
  • #8,562
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:08am Jul 20, 2007 1:08am
Quoting Timingy
Thanks Monarch - whats your forecast if we have -ve news out of UK and we see UJ strength and GU drop? Where does that leave GJ?
I actually expect the news to be as it was today for the GU, a negative report.

If that happens, will see the GU break below for the 50% retrace level at 2.0446 or even the 61.8% at 2.0423, the line to watch on the lower side of GU is 1.0458, if we break that, then it will be a nice move down.

If the GU breaks low, then the UJ will break out of the Flag formation it has been in since the 11th low at 121.86 and high 122.59. I would expect the UJ to break the 122.26 line then reach to break over the 122.59 line and upwards to the 123.65 test of the high on 7-9.

Remember, GU down UJ up, UJ up - GJ up, so we would want to see the GU down if your in a Long trade here.

If news comes out positive GU, then UJ will break the lower trend line and head down, leaving the GJ to follow suit.

Franfurt just opened 7 minutes ago, lets see what they do with the hour prior to London open.
  • #8,563
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:18am Jul 20, 2007 1:18am
Quoting monarch
I actually expect the news to be as it was today for the GU, a negative report.

If that happens, will see the GU break below for the 50% retrace level at 2.0446 or even the 61.8% at 2.0423, the line to watch on the lower side of GU is 1.0458, if we break that, then it will be a nice move down.

If the GU breaks low, then the UJ will break out of the Flag formation it has been in since the 11th low at 121.86 and high 122.59. I would expect the UJ to break the 122.26 line then reach to break over the 122.59 line and upwards to the 123.65 test of the high on 7-9.

Remember, GU down UJ up, UJ up - GJ up, so we would want to see the GU down if your in a Long trade here.

If news comes out positive GU, then UJ will break the lower trend line and head down, leaving the GJ to follow suit.

Franfurt just opened 7 minutes ago, lets see what they do with the hour prior to London open.
Spot on analysis there buddy. Exactly what I have in mind. I'm going for the G/U down , U/J up = G/J up too.

Great explanation.
  • #8,564
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:19am Jul 20, 2007 1:19am
Quoting monarch
I actually expect the news to be as it was today for the GU, a negative report.

If that happens, will see the GU break below for the 50% retrace level at 2.0446 or even the 61.8% at 2.0423, the line to watch on the lower side of GU is 1.0458, if we break that, then it will be a nice move down.

If the GU breaks low, then the UJ will break out of the Flag formation it has been in since the 11th low at 121.86 and high 122.59. I would expect the UJ to break the 122.26 line then reach to break over the 122.59 line and upwards to the 123.65 test of the high on 7-9.

Remember, GU down UJ up, UJ up - GJ up, so we would want to see the GU down if your in a Long trade here.

If news comes out positive GU, then UJ will break the lower trend line and head down, leaving the GJ to follow suit.
I thought GJ goes with GU when it is GBP news and GJ goes with UJ when it is USD news??..............
  • #8,565
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:23am Jul 20, 2007 1:23am
Quoting sarama001
I thought GJ goes with GU when it is GBP news and GJ goes with UJ when it is USD news??..............

It really depends. But lately G/J has been following U/J.

Look at U/J now above 122.15 and G/J easily can go above 250.30. If U/J at 122.50, I expect G/J at least 250.90 or 251.00

Watch the market closely.
  • #8,566
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:41am Jul 20, 2007 1:41am
Looking across the UJ Daily, you can see the level that UJ is supporting at is the area of a triple top back on 1-29-07, 2-12-07, and 6-1-07 around the 122.08/17 area.

What a great test of this resistance now turning support, you can see the 6-2 and 7-2 candles came down to this area to find support, the retraced upwards on 7-3 from 122.13 line, then once again came down to test this area, and for the past 10 days, we have straddled this support area.

Now the test of the upper high should be tested once again, but first there must be a break above the following levels:
122.26/32
122.66
123.44

There is still a remote possiblity of a downward move, that would be a breach below 121.53/46 and 120.97 below that. The candle on 7-11 came down and found a double bottom on the 120.97 area. Then moved upwards from there. That represents the support is complete and is prepared for an upward move

That is my basic analysis of the UJ at present
  • #8,567
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:44am Jul 20, 2007 1:44am
Quoting sarama001
I thought GJ goes with GU when it is GBP news and GJ goes with UJ when it is USD news??..............
Funny you ask that, here we are in Frankfurt session, the UJ is holding still like it has no life, and the GU has moved upwards here, causing the GJ to go with it, so that would be your answer for that question.

Here is the 250.51 line being touched, the high has been 250.56, nice touch, lets see if the hourly can close above this point, but eventually the 4 hour candle has to close above for me, and that happens 30 minutes after news time.

Will see soon enough, but there is a little movement, better than being dead in the water. LOL
  • #8,568
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:46am Jul 20, 2007 1:46am
Quoting monarch
Looking across the UJ Daily, you can see the level that UJ is supporting at is the area of a triple top back on 1-29-07, 2-12-07, and 6-1-07 around the 122.08/17 area.

What a great test of this resistance now turning support, you can see the 6-2 and 7-2 candles came down to this area to find support, the retraced upwards on 7-3 from 122.13 line, then once again came down to test this area, and for the past 10 days, we have straddled this support area.

Now the test of the upper high should be tested once again, but first there must be a break above the following levels:
122.26/32
122.66
123.44

There is still a remote possiblity of a downward move, that would be a breach below 121.53/46 and 120.97 below that. The candle on 7-11 came down and found a double bottom on the 120.97 area. Then moved upwards from there. That represents the support is complete and is prepared for an upward move

That is my basic analysis of the UJ at present
Thanks for the hindsight.
But I have a different view. Support at 121.75-80 area.
Resistance at 121.25-30 area
122.00, the magical number whereby a INVESTMENT bank bought a lot, targeting 124-125.
I'm long at 121.75, small lots.

In the other hand, GU still deadlocked at 2.0450-2.0550 area.
There is possibility of G/J hitting 251.00 but I'm not going to risk my $ on it as yet.
  • #8,569
  • Edited 2:07am Jul 20, 2007 1:55am | Edited 2:07am
Quoting zamans98
Thanks for the hindsight.
But I have a different view. Support at 121.75-80 area.
Resistance at 121.25-30 area
122.00, the magical number whereby a INVESTMENT bank bought a lot, targeting 124-125.
I'm long at 121.75, small lots.

In the other hand, GU still deadlocked at 2.0450-2.0550 area.
There is possibility of G/J hitting 251.00 but I'm not going to risk my $ on it as yet.
Very nice, I will plug these numbers in and watch them, thank you.

One question your support at 121.75-80 area is higher than your resistance at 121.25-30, did you mean the 122.25-20, which i noted as a resistance also, but a temporary one at that, only takes a little move and that will be taken out easily, then upward to more resistance as it is pushing upwards now

GJ is making it way above our 250.51 also here with movement upwards with GU and UJ together, nice.

LONDON OPEN NOW: will watch the next hour and half to see the movement, then also the news coming forth. were getting both GU and UJ upwards at the same time, that is pushing GJ heavy, one will have to fall back soon.

UJ is still pressing the upward trend line of the Flag Formation, and holding under the 122.26 line, I am checking off till 5AM EST, lets see the news results and then decide the 4 hour close at 5am.

GOOD TRADING TO ALL!!
  • #8,570
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:05am Jul 20, 2007 2:05am
Quoting monarch
Very nice, I will plug these numbers in and watch them, thank you.

One question your support at 121.75-80 area is higher than your resistance at 121.25-30, did you mean the 122.25-20, which i noted as a resistance also, but a temporary one at that, only takes a little move and that will be taken out easily, then upward to more resistance as it is pushing upwards now

GJ is making it way above our 250.51 also here with movement upwards with GU and UJ together, nice.

LONDON OPEN NOW: will watch the next hour and half to see the movement, then also the news coming forth. were getting both GU and UJ upwards at the same time, that is pushing GJ heavy, one will have to fall back soon.

opss, it was a typo error.

Short Term support : 121.75-80
Short Term Res: 122.25-30

Now UJ testing the resistance...
  • #8,571
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:05am Jul 20, 2007 2:05am
Quoting monarch
I actually expect the news to be as it was today for the GU, a negative report.

If that happens, will see the GU break below for the 50% retrace level at 2.0446 or even the 61.8% at 2.0423, the line to watch on the lower side of GU is 1.0458, if we break that, then it will be a nice move down.

If the GU breaks low, then the UJ will break out of the Flag formation it has been in since the 11th low at 121.86 and high 122.59. I would expect the UJ to break the 122.26 line then reach to break over the 122.59 line and upwards to the 123.65 test of the high on 7-9.

Remember, GU down UJ up, UJ up - GJ up, so we would want to see the GU down if your in a Long trade here.

If news comes out positive GU, then UJ will break the lower trend line and head down, leaving the GJ to follow suit.

Franfurt just opened 7 minutes ago, lets see what they do with the hour prior to London open.

Hi Monarch<
First I would like to thank you for sharing your analytical approach . You and FixME1too are a big asset to us on this thread. For some reason this thread does not attract many clowns like other threads which is a great thing.

About your previous quote about GU down =UJ up means GJ up, Thats not always true during British news events. Take UK CPI news release three days ago. GU: up, UJ: Nuetral and GJ UP. this is just one example and i have seen many UK news events both GU and GJ shooting @ the same direction.
  • #8,572
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:09am Jul 20, 2007 2:09am
Quoting auslanco
Hi Monarch<
First I would like to thank you for sharing your analytical approach . You and FixME1too are a big asset to us on this thread. For some reason this thread does not attract many clowns like other threads which is a great thing.

About your previous quote about GU down =UJ up means GJ up, Thats not always true during British news events. Take UK CPI news release three days ago. GU: up, UJ: Nuetral and GJ UP. this is just one example and i have seen many UK news events both GU and GJ shooting @ the same direction.
Thanks for pointing that out, it seemed to do the same thing just while ago, the UJ was stagnate, the GU went up and the GJ followed suit.

I would say most recently the UJ is the driving force behind the GJ, but not as a rule.

And such is the case right now, GU is pushing upwards, and GJ is tagging along nicely.

Thanks, and lets make some pips here tonight.
  • #8,573
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:30am Jul 20, 2007 2:30am
according to a inside source in a major investment bank in Australia todays forcast will be GJ- bullish GU Nuetral(choppy) after UK news.
  • #8,574
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:34am Jul 20, 2007 2:34am
Quoting monarch
I actually expect the news to be as it was today for the GU, a negative report.
I think I have to dissagree with that one. Manufacturing has been surprisingly resilient regardsless of sterling strength and services, which make of to largest partion of the UK economy, haven't shown much weakness either. So I don't expect a weak reading.
  • #8,575
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:36am Jul 20, 2007 2:36am
This Cursed Pair will never fall

Short from 250.75 sl 251. who cares if i lost some money
  • #8,576
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:37am Jul 20, 2007 2:37am
Quoting monarch
Thanks for pointing that out, it seemed to do the same thing just while ago, the UJ was stagnate, the GU went up and the GJ followed suit.

I would say most recently the UJ is the driving force behind the GJ, but not as a rule.

And such is the case right now, GU is pushing upwards, and GJ is tagging along nicely.

Thanks, and lets make some pips here tonight.
And for anybody new, it pays to study the strong correlation between the Dow and the carry trades.
Gone to a better place
  • #8,577
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:37am Jul 20, 2007 2:37am
Quoting BaasHarm!
I think I have to dissagree with that one. Manufacturing has been surprisingly resilient regardsless of sterling strength and services, which make of to largest partion of the UK economy, haven't shown much weakness either. So I don't expect a weak reading.
Looks like the market doesn't want to wait for the GDP release and decided to press ahead! Bah

UJ up GU down and GJ up starting to take hold.
  • #8,578
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:41am Jul 20, 2007 2:41am
Quoting Timingy
Looks like the market doesn't want to wait for the GDP release and decided to press ahead! Bah

UJ up GU down and GJ up starting to take hold.

Seems like my prediction on the U/J UP = G/J UP and G/U down is coming true.

  • #8,579
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:42am Jul 20, 2007 2:42am
Quoting BaasHarm!
I think I have to dissagree with that one. Manufacturing has been surprisingly resilient regardsless of sterling strength and services, which make of to largest partion of the UK economy, haven't shown much weakness either. So I don't expect a weak reading.
That is what will wait for, the report out here in an hour, regardless of the outcome, it was my personal opinion on the news release, but I don't trade based on news facts, if that were so, i would never trade. lol

Have been in a Long for a long time, even with good and bad news, so we will just take it in stride, and hope for the best in the end.

Thanks for the heads up on the UK expectations.

AND YES >> HENRY CAROL, you were right once again, why do you think I hang out in your thread, to make money. Thanks BRO, and there it goes, UJ up above the 122.26 and breaking the upper flag trend line, next line on UJ 122.58, you gotta love this trading, it just gets funner and funner!!!!
  • #8,580
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:46am Jul 20, 2007 2:46am
Quoting BaasHarm!
I think I have to dissagree with that one. Manufacturing has been surprisingly resilient regardsless of sterling strength and services, which make of to largest partion of the UK economy, haven't shown much weakness either. So I don't expect a weak reading.
stronger reading doesnt always mean that banks are going to go on a GBP buying spree. Look at yesterday US news. There were three US news releases came negative one after the other + Bernake whole load crap and no real solution for US economy. But still GBP/USD couldnt go up. Actually USD gained .

This is all about pre-meditated Forex mafia controlled by the top 10 banks and companies. no one has to agree with me but I know a thing or two about this since I have a very close connetion to a investment bank in Australia.
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