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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,541
  • Jul 19, 2007 1:20pm Jul 19, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting trader8686
That's right, first two numbers are fine for me, but 237......I don't know ?????
Hi, trader, sorry, it's not 237 but 238 . I wrote hopefully...this pair is really wild...I bet everyone will be happy if it can go that far...chances to load up..I am trying to establish a passive investment plan based on SWAP. It sure beat bank's savings. Happy trading! BR
  • #8,542
  • Jul 19, 2007 1:58pm Jul 19, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting bluerose
Hi, trader, sorry, it's not 237 but 238 . I wrote hopefully...this pair is really wild...I bet everyone will be happy if it can go that far...chances to load up..I am trying to establish a passive investment plan based on SWAP. It sure beat bank's savings. Happy trading! BR
Makes more sense, now, 238 is at about 38.2% fibo (daily chart).
  • #8,543
  • Jul 19, 2007 2:01pm Jul 19, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting BaasHarm!
We're slowly approaching the trendline from 10 to 17 july. It looks we'll get there somewhere around london open which coincides nicely with UK GDP data. So I guess that is the time we'll see some action and the data will probably lead the direction.

On a sustained break of the trendline (H4 close below) I'll be closing my longs to secure profits. With the news as expected or better I'll add more longs on the bounce and I already have buy order waiting at 250.75 and above.
If that all plays out, I'll be holding a nice 10 lots to unload around 260 .

BTW, anyone long aussie/yen? It's providing my paycheck this month (52,8% up and counting on that account since july 3rd...)
Good plan, BaasHarm! What if the 4h trendline is broken before the GDP????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #8,544
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:49pm Jul 19, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting trader8686
Good plan, BaasHarm! What if the 4h trendline is broken before the GDP????http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
I'll close them on the break (Although I doubt it will before the news) and when the GDP comes out strong, I'll reconsider longs again.
  • #8,545
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:51pm Jul 19, 2007 3:51pm
Quoting Timingy
New trend highs at 107.45, for the fifth session, left the studies highly overbought hoping for a 105.80 dip. Tight stop at 107.6 so not too concerned about loss if doesn't go as expected.
Guessing tops is an expensive hobby even with a 15 pips stop with 4% account at risk.....
  • #8,546
  • Jul 19, 2007 6:13pm Jul 19, 2007 6:13pm
Longs Are IN The House...........
  • #8,547
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:07pm Jul 19, 2007 7:07pm
BTW, anyone long aussie/yen? It's providing my paycheck this month (52,8% up and counting on that account since july 3rd...)[/quote]

I'm long on AUDJPY on OANDA platform. This pair has been so bullish when its counterparts within the carry trade such as GBPJPY and EURJPY were so bearish the last two days. I'm also long on NZDJPY for the last several days on FXCM platform and this pair is doing quite well today too.

GBPJPY is quite lively, reaching 250.45 now...So, perhaps it's safe to go long soon...You are doing very well! Happy trading! BR
  • #8,548
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:07pm Jul 19, 2007 7:07pm
4hr bearish strength couldnt be estabilished. Market seems to be trending Long again. waiting till the price passes 250.50 to open a position.
  • #8,549
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:29pm Jul 19, 2007 7:29pm
on the 4 hour chart we are in a consolidating wave 4. When you see no direction on a pair that trends hard like this pair does, then stops at the drop of a dime from a strong trend and consolidates for days on out even if you dont know how to count waves, more times than not it is a 4 wave waiting to breakout. TP on 4 hour top is 252 range. On a long term monthly chart look for 254.00's... The 4 wave will take alot of people's money with the fake outs so be careful.... Happy Trading.....

FixMe1Too



Quoting auslanco
4hr bearish strength couldnt be estabilished. Market seems to be trending Long again. waiting till the price passes 250.50 to open a position.
  • #8,550
  • Edited 8:32pm Jul 19, 2007 8:00pm | Edited 8:32pm
Quoting fixme1too
The 4 wave will take alot of people's money with the fake outs so be careful.... Happy Trading.....

FixMe1Too
I don't get this part, got scared, can you explain it? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #8,551
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:07pm Jul 19, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting monarch
This is a key area, but I am still looking for a 4 hour to close above the 250.51 prior to re-entering more Long entries.

Good Trading to all.
The range here is from the 250.51 down to 249.72 (the 23.6% fibo level).

Note: The UJ is in a tight Flag formation with the 122.26 holding resistance.
The 200 ema and 89 ema are also in play on the UJ 4 Hour.

I am watching for a break above the 250.51 line on the close of a 4 hour, with a reloading of Longs from that close of candle.

The next close of my 4hour is at 1am EST.

Until then, enjoy the range and be smart in all trades until the UJ shows its hand on a breakout, which should go UP UP UP.
  • #8,552
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:42pm Jul 19, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting fixme1too
on the 4 hour chart we are in a consolidating wave 4. When you see no direction on a pair that trends hard like this pair does, then stops at the drop of a dime from a strong trend and consolidates for days on out even if you dont know how to count waves, more times than not it is a 4 wave waiting to breakout. TP on 4 hour top is 252 range. On a long term monthly chart look for 254.00's... The 4 wave will take alot of people's money with the fake outs so be careful.... Happy Trading.....

FixMe1Too
Thanks FixMeToo,
I didnt go short. I was waiting till price breaks down to 249.20 area to go short.
This wave business is too complicated for me
  • #8,553
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:45pm Jul 19, 2007 8:45pm
This came to my mailbox 11 hrs ago from fxcm research about GBPJPY. You may have this already. So much to read and so little time.

" GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPAUD

Commentary – The GBPJPY continues to work higher as the rally from 221.05 is most likely in its 5th wave. The pair has consolidated between 249.60 and 250.51 since 7/17. This consolidation may be a triangle or a flat. Either structure is bullish as long as price is above 248.95. Very short term trendline support is near 249.70. The next measured objectives are clustered near 254.00. Coming under 245.07 would signal additional bearish potential.

Strategy – Flat "

Happy going long on GBPJPY again soon! BR
  • #8,554
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:47pm Jul 19, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting monarch
The range here is from the 250.51 down to 249.72 (the 23.6% fibo level).

Note: The UJ is in a tight Flag formation with the 122.26 holding resistance.
The 200 ema and 89 ema are also in play on the UJ 4 Hour.

I am watching for a break above the 250.51 line on the close of a 4 hour, with a reloading of Longs from that close of candle.

The next close of my 4hour is at 1am EST.

Until then, enjoy the range and be smart in all trades until the UJ shows its hand on a breakout, which should go UP UP UP.
I think there still is a possibility for the market to go south if the price establish below 249.80 area.
  • #8,555
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:25pm Jul 19, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting auslanco
I think there still is a possibility for the market to go south if the price establish below 249.80 area.
The GJ is only going to go where the UJ and GU leads it.

The UJ is in a flag formation and is holding under the 122.26 line this past 13 - 4 hour candles, there is still 30 minutes for this candle to close, so I am going to monitor this pair specifially.

The GU is holding around the 2.0488, just above the 38.2% fibo line which has already completed at 9am EST 4 Hour candle, a break below the 2.0469/63 would be bearish GU.

If we see a bullish GU at the Frankfurt and London open, then expect UJ to breakout of the lower trend line from 120.96 up to the next lower candle bottom at 121.57, with support around the 121.54 line which is 60 pips below the price now.

The GU will be watching the GDP report coming out at 4:30 am EST, so we may see some ranging up to this point.
  • #8,556
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:27pm Jul 19, 2007 9:27pm
Hi Bluerose

Pls What Do You Mean By The Strategy Is Flat, Do We Stay In The Long?

I Am Long On Gj 249.9
THE TREND IS UR FRIEND
  • #8,557
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:45pm Jul 19, 2007 9:45pm
Quoting tradechief
Hi Bluerose

Pls What Do You Mean By The Strategy Is Flat, Do We Stay In The Long?

I Am Long On Gj 249.9
Hi, it's not my strategy. It's FXCM. I notice that when they say flat, they take no position, i.e. no long nor short. You may want to go to daily fx plus that give free access from July 14-21 to check out the goodies for their live clients (https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/index.jsp).

Everyday, I receive their briefing on strategies news etc...in my mailbox. I do not take everything there though but it's good to read the research. Anyhow, their analyses agree with that of Monarch and Fixme1too. Conclusion: we may as well just stick with Monarch and Fixme1too's advice. All the best, BR.
  • #8,558
  • Edited 10:49pm Jul 19, 2007 10:37pm | Edited 10:49pm
Based upon the consolidation from 7-17 to present, the price has retraced to the 23.6% fibo line, but has struggled in efforts to go down to the 38.2% fibo at 249.39.

The 4 Hour candle close at 1AM EST at 250.41 and reached a high of 250.46.

The upper line of 250.51 is the key line to breach on the upward move, but maintains a range of 250.51 down to 249.72.

We are now into our 17th 4 hour candles in a range of 250.51 down to 249.58, which is only 93 pips.

The median for the range is 250.04/11.

The 4 hour candle that just closed at 1am EST low was 250.15, just above the median line of 04/11.

News comes out of GB at 4:30 am EST, with no major news following in the US Session, so expect the GU to lead the way here today once the London Opens and the news is released.

Watching key lines on the GU and the UJ also during this session as per post # 8554

Once we close above the 250.51 line, the projected target would be 251.90/95 and possibly 253.91 based upon information from Fixme1too and Fibo extension I have charted. See post # 8548 for projected targes.
  • #8,559
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:43pm Jul 19, 2007 10:43pm
Thank you, Monarch, for a very concise brief.
Best,
BR
  • #8,560
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:56pm Jul 19, 2007 10:56pm
No Problem BlueRose, were all watching for the same thing to happen, and if someone has information concerning the GJ, I want to know.

This forum is a great informative site, and were all trying to accomplish the same goals.

I am only placing information on the thread that is Analytical, keeping all personal trading ideas clear from the information I post.

I am Long from 248.87 last week, and remain in with 11 Lots Long as I write this, also, I have shorted in the past few days in accordance to my own system that I follow 100% by the rules, but I do not post my personal system trades on this thread, becasue it would interfere with the actual trend that is now in progress, which remains Long for now.

Once there is a breach to a lower region, then I would post the information that pertains to a new short term trend here.
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